We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Jordan Love
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
0.18 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Josh Jacobs◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.14 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.61 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Average
5.6% sack rate
Bobby Brown III
0.2 disrupt/gm
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Tershawn Wharton
0.2 press/gm
Karl Brooks◄
no 2025 data
Jaelan Phillips◄
0.7 impact/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Keisean Nixon
0.7 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Chase Brown◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Ja'Marr Chase◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki◄
0.07 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jermaine Johnson II◄
0.3 press/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Alontae Taylor◄
0.6 cover/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Omarion Hampton
-0.01 EPA/tch
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Oronde Gadsden◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Dalvin Tomlinson◄
no 2025 data
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Teair Tart◄
no 2025 data
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Cam Hart◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Derrick Henry
0.02 EPA/tch
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Zay Flowers◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.57 EPA/tgt
Good
9.6% sack rate
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Deone Walker
0.4 disrupt/gm
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
T.J. Sanders◄
no 2025 data
Roquan Smith◄
0.7 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Christian Benford
0.3 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Caleb Banks◄
no 2025 data
Alim McNeill
0.3 disrupt/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Isaiah Rodgers
0.2 cover/gm
D.J. Reed◄
0.5 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus
0.6 cover/gm
Kerby Joseph◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Pat Freiermuth◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Yahya Black
no 2025 data
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Caleb Williams
0.06 EPA/att
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Zach Charbonnet
-0.00 EPA/tch
Rome Odunze
0.17 EPA/tgt
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner
0.32 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Average
5.3% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.
0.7 disrupt/gm
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence
0.8 impact/gm
Tyrique Stevenson
0.5 cover/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Dillon Thieneman◄
no 2025 data
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Bo Nix
0.08 EPA/att
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Courtland Sutton◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Average
7.4% sack rate
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Jonathon Cooper◄
0.8 impact/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
no 2025 data
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Grover Stewart◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Laiatu Latu
0.9 press/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cam Bynum
0.7 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Dak Prescott◄
0.14 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love◄
no 2025 data
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Zaven Collins
0.4 impact/gm
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Budda Baker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Drake Maye◄
0.24 EPA/att
Malik Willis
0.13 EPA/att
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
A.J. Brown◄
0.22 EPA/tgt
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.35 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich
0.33 EPA/tgt
Average
8.7% sack rate
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Kenneth Grant◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Christian Elliss
0.3 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Carlton Davis III◄
0.4 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Craig Woodson◄
0.3 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jalen Hurts◄
0.05 EPA/att
Jayden Daniels
-0.02 EPA/att
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Terry McLaurin
0.35 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.35 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Average
6.6% sack rate
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Average
no data
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Quinyon Mitchell
0.7 cover/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Tua Tagovailoa◄
0.03 EPA/att
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Drake London◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Average
6.4% sack rate
Da'Shawn Hand
no 2025 data
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Brandon Dorlus◄
0.8 press/gm
Elijah Roberts
0.2 press/gm
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Kirk Cousins◄
-0.00 EPA/att
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Breece Hall◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Tre Tucker◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers
0.22 EPA/tgt
Kenyon Sadiq
no 2025 data
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Bad◄
10.8% sack rate
Adam Butler◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Thomas Booker IV
no 2025 data
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Quay Walker
0.9 impact/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Isaiah Pola-Mao
0.5 cover/gm
Minkah Fitzpatrick◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
$9.99/mo
Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
$29.99/mo
All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.
