Every game is projected from each team's opponent-adjusted scoring and shooting rates, with home ice, rest and the two starting goalies — their save rate, goals saved above average, and the hot hand over the last ten starts. Out of that comes a projected score, win odds, the puck line and a conviction grade for every game on the slate, and every call is graded automatically from the final. One honest note up front: in two held-out seasons the goalie term moved accuracy by less than a point, so the starters are on the card as context, not sold as the edge. Starters are projected until the club confirms them.
The Receipts · tuned 2022-23 through 2024-25, tested held out on 2025-26
1,312 games
Measured against the actual final score — did we call the winner, did the favorite win by two — on seasons the model was not fit on. The 2026-27 record below is graded from the finals as they land; nobody can edit a result after the fact.
Straight up
53.6%
every game on the slate
On posted games
63.6%
B+ or better · the board
Puck line cover
32.5%
favorite wins by 2+
Naive baseline
52.7%
home team wins · ±2.13 goals margin error
No betting lines were used, so this is a predictor, not a betting edge — it is graded against final scores, never against the market. On the held-out 2025-26 season the full slate ran 53.6% vs 52.7% for simply picking the better-record team (inside sampling noise); the games we would actually post ran 63.6% vs 58.7% for that same baseline on the same games. The season before (2024-25, also held out): 59.3% vs 55.7%.
Season record starts with the first final · 5 games · 5 live · Members only
Vancouver Canucks Edmonton Oilers
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how far apart the projected goals are, and whether the goalie edge, the expected-goal edge and the rest of the picture all agree. Here is how each grade actually called the winner across tuned 2022-23 through 2024-25, tested held out on 2025-26:
The skaters set the number.Each team's goals and shots for and against, opponent-adjusted and shrunk toward the league early in the year, set the two scoring rates; last season carries in until a team has a body of work. Every rating is computed as of that game's puck drop, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight.
Goalies on the card.Each starter is rated on goals saved above the league-average save rate per 60 minutes — on the season, over his last ten starts for the hot hand, and split home and road — and that rating nudges the opponent's expected goals. We tested it hard: with the goalie term switched off the model called the same share of winners, within a point, in both backtest seasons. So the goalies are here because you want to see who is in net, not because they are the secret sauce.
Rest and home ice. The second night of a back-to-back and long road trips cost real goals; home ice is worth a small, measured bump. Both are shown on the card as the goals they move the projection by.
Starters are projected until confirmed. Clubs name their goalie on game day, often at the morning skate. Until then the card carries our projected starter — rotation, back-to-backs and recent usage — marked projected, and flips to confirmed when the club does. The board posts every morning; a late goalie change can move a call.
The puck line is always 1.5. So the question is which side and how often: the cover number is the chance our favorite wins by two or more, empty-netters included. Graded straight up and on the puck line the moment a game is final; once a game is graded it is public.
Analysis and entertainment, not betting advice and never a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
Tue, Sep 29, 10:00 PM ET · Rogers Place
Vancouver Canucks2.631%
Edmonton Oilers3.569%Kevin LankinenProjected
47 GP · home .863 / road .886
SV%
.875
GSAA/60
+0.00
L10
.877
Connor IngramProjected
32 GP · home .899 / road .907
SV%
.899
GSAA/60
+0.00
L10
.907
Goalie edge
Even
xG edge
EDM
+0.82 goals
Rest
Even
Home ice
EDM
+0.24 goals
Chicago Blackhawks @ Vegas Golden Knights
Tue, Sep 29, 10:30 PM ET
Spencer KnightProjected
Akira SchmidProjected
Florida Panthers @ Carolina Hurricanes
Tue, Sep 29, 5:00 PM ET
Sergei BobrovskyProjected
Brandon BussiProjected
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TORMembersNHL · Members
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We post at most 5 games a night and nothing below a B+. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — and the books see the same mismatch. Higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
