This is a projection tool, not a betting model.

We tested this hard before publishing it: four seasons of trends, 148,000 generated systems, and every model-vs-market lean we could construct. None of them beat the closing line out-of-sample — betting our own disagreement with the spread went 46.2% across 578 independent games. So we show you the projection and the market number side by side and let you draw your own conclusions.