We simulate every game on the framework that actually explains college football — explosiveness and efficiency drive the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade, a projected score, and a position-by-position breakdown, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
88.1%
the games we post · 67
Full slate
67.7%
every game · 601
Margin error
13.3
points, full slate
On the board
6max
per week · B+ or better
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — notagainst the betting line. Across 2019-2024 the simulator calls about 69% of all games correctly, and roughly 91% of the graded ones we actually post, holding up in every season including those it wasn’t built on. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Our 6 highest-conviction calls out of 34 games simulated this week. We post at most 6, and nothing graded below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer games rather than padding the board.
Oregon State
Oregon
15
46
Explosiveness
Oregon
Efficiency
Oregon
Trenches
Oregon
+1.8 at the line
Called it ✓
Maalik Murphy
0.18 PPA/play
Dante Moore◄
0.39 PPA/play
Toledo
Western Michigan
38
11
Explosiveness
Toledo
Efficiency
Toledo
Trenches
Toledo
+3.6 at the line
Missed the winner
Tucker Gleason◄
0.32 PPA/play
Broc Lowry
0.19 PPA/play
Michigan State
USC
19
46
Explosiveness
USC
Efficiency
USC
Trenches
USC
+4.6 at the line
Called it ✓
Aidan Chiles
0.43 PPA/play
Jayden Maiava◄
0.48 PPA/play
Georgia State
Vanderbilt
14
41
Explosiveness
Vanderbilt
Efficiency
Vanderbilt
Trenches
Vanderbilt
+5.0 at the line
Called it ✓
Cameran Brown
0.39 PPA/play
Diego Pavia◄
Ball State
UConn
16
41
Explosiveness
UConn
Efficiency
UConn
Trenches
Ball State
+0.8 at the line
Called it ✓
Kiael Kelly
0.04 PPA/play
Joe Fagnano◄
0.48 PPA/play
South Carolina
Missouri
18
36
Explosiveness
Missouri
Efficiency
Missouri
Trenches
Missouri
+5.5 at the line
Called it ✓
Lanorris Sellers
0.18 PPA/play
Beau Pribula◄
0.26 PPA/play
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is, and whether explosiveness, efficiency, and the trenches all agree with it. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019-2024:
Explosiveness and efficiency — measured as opponent-adjusted predicted points added, on both sides of the ball — set the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Every rating is computed as of that game’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight.
The trenches are shown, not baked in. We tested whether O-line / D-line play — line yards, short-yardage push, and stuff rate — improves the projection. On four seasons the model was never fit on, it moved winner accuracy from 69.5% to 69.4% and made the margin error slightly worse. Line play is already inside the efficiency numbers, so adding it again just adds noise. We show who wins at the line because it’s a real part of the story — we just don’t let it move the pick when the data says it shouldn’t.
Cornell Hatcher Jr.
0.21 PPA/play
Noah Whittington◄
0.16 PPA/play
Trent Walker
0.47 PPA/play
Malik Benson◄
0.79 PPA/play
Bryce Caufield
0.22 PPA/play
Kenyon Sadiq◄
0.54 PPA/play
Good
2.83 line yds
Good◄
3.08 line yds
Good◄
23% stuff rate
Average
16% stuff rate
Average
10% front-7 havoc
Good◄
10% front-7 havoc
Average
1.07 2nd-lvl yds
Elite◄
0.80 2nd-lvl yds
Elite
36% pass succ allowed
Elite◄
35% pass succ allowed
Bad
1.96 expl. allowed
Average◄
1.54 expl. allowed
Grades are percentiles against all FBS teams this season. QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary player at that spot on his own production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s on-field production (line yards, stuff rate, havoc, coverage) rather than individual players. Not PFF grades.
DeaMonte Trayanum◄
0.16 PPA/play
Jalen Buckley
0.02 PPA/play
Junior Vandeross◄
0.56 PPA/play
Baylin Brooks
0.62 PPA/play
Jacob Petersen
0.36 PPA/play
Blake Bosma◄
0.45 PPA/play
Average
3.05 line yds
Good◄
3.09 line yds
Elite◄
21% stuff rate
Average
17% stuff rate
Elite◄
13% front-7 havoc
Elite
11% front-7 havoc
Elite◄
0.73 2nd-lvl yds
Good
1.10 2nd-lvl yds
Elite◄
28% pass succ allowed
Good
37% pass succ allowed
Average
1.64 expl. allowed
Good◄
1.44 expl. allowed
Grades are percentiles against all FBS teams this season. QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary player at that spot on his own production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s on-field production (line yards, stuff rate, havoc, coverage) rather than individual players. Not PFF grades.
Elijah Tau-Tolliver
0.01 PPA/play
Waymond Jordan◄
0.26 PPA/play
Omari Kelly
0.53 PPA/play
Makai Lemon◄
0.58 PPA/play
Jack Velling◄
0.68 PPA/play
Lake McRee
0.56 PPA/play
Bad
2.58 line yds
Good◄
3.15 line yds
Bad◄
17% stuff rate
Bad
17% stuff rate
Bad
9% front-7 havoc
Good◄
11% front-7 havoc
Bad◄
1.07 2nd-lvl yds
Bad
1.22 2nd-lvl yds
Bad
43% pass succ allowed
Bad◄
42% pass succ allowed
Good◄
1.47 expl. allowed
Good
1.55 expl. allowed
Grades are percentiles against all FBS teams this season. QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary player at that spot on his own production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s on-field production (line yards, stuff rate, havoc, coverage) rather than individual players. Not PFF grades.
0.49 PPA/play
Jordan Simmons
0.12 PPA/play
Sedrick Alexander◄
0.38 PPA/play
Ted Hurst
0.45 PPA/play
Junior Sherrill◄
0.79 PPA/play
Grant Hollier
0.73 PPA/play
Eli Stowers◄
0.64 PPA/play
Bad
2.90 line yds
Good◄
3.24 line yds
Bad
15% stuff rate
Good◄
22% stuff rate
Bad
8% front-7 havoc
Average◄
11% front-7 havoc
Bad
1.16 2nd-lvl yds
Good◄
1.09 2nd-lvl yds
Bad
46% pass succ allowed
Average◄
44% pass succ allowed
Bad
1.64 expl. allowed
Average◄
1.54 expl. allowed
Grades are percentiles against all FBS teams this season. QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary player at that spot on his own production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s on-field production (line yards, stuff rate, havoc, coverage) rather than individual players. Not PFF grades.
Elijah Jackson
0.07 PPA/play
Camryn Edwards◄
0.23 PPA/play
Qian Magwood
0.70 PPA/play
Skyler Bell◄
0.57 PPA/play
Kameron Anthony
1.12 PPA/play
Javonte Vereen◄
0.81 PPA/play
Bad
2.51 line yds
Good◄
2.98 line yds
Good◄
21% stuff rate
Bad
12% stuff rate
Bad
9% front-7 havoc
Average◄
10% front-7 havoc
Bad◄
1.09 2nd-lvl yds
Bad
1.24 2nd-lvl yds
Bad
45% pass succ allowed
Average◄
43% pass succ allowed
Average
1.56 expl. allowed
Good◄
1.53 expl. allowed
Grades are percentiles against all FBS teams this season. QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary player at that spot on his own production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s on-field production (line yards, stuff rate, havoc, coverage) rather than individual players. Not PFF grades.
Rahsul Faison
0.11 PPA/play
Ahmad Hardy◄
0.22 PPA/play
Nyck Harbor◄
0.85 PPA/play
Kevin Coleman Jr.
0.44 PPA/play
Jordan Dingle◄
0.52 PPA/play
Brett Norfleet
0.28 PPA/play
Average
2.88 line yds
Elite◄
3.13 line yds
Elite◄
23% stuff rate
Good
21% stuff rate
Average
10% front-7 havoc
Elite◄
12% front-7 havoc
Good
0.90 2nd-lvl yds
Elite◄
0.85 2nd-lvl yds
Bad
45% pass succ allowed
Elite◄
34% pass succ allowed
Good◄
1.46 expl. allowed
Average
1.55 expl. allowed
Grades are percentiles against all FBS teams this season. QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary player at that spot on his own production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s on-field production (line yards, stuff rate, havoc, coverage) rather than individual players. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 4,655 games. We post at most 6 a week and never below a B+, which lands around 90.8% — but that is because a high grade means a clearer mismatch, and the books know it too. Higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.