We simulate every game on the framework that actually explains college football — explosiveness and efficiency drive the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade, a projected score, and a position-by-position breakdown.
On the board: 6 max per week, B+ or better. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: the simulator projects each game from the matchup data and does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Our 6 highest-conviction calls out of 56 games simulated this week. We post at most 6, and nothing graded below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer games rather than padding the board.
UTEP @ North Dakota State
Sat, Oct 31
UTEP
North Dakota State
9
37
Explosiveness
North Dakota State
Efficiency
North Dakota State
Trenches
North Dakota State
+0.6 at the line
Average
no data
Average
no data
Kam Thomas◄
0.03 PPA/play
DJ Scott
0.00 PPA/play
Average
no data
Average
Nevada @ UCLA
Sat, Oct 31
Nevada
UCLA
16
33
Explosiveness
UCLA
Efficiency
UCLA
Trenches
UCLA
+6.4 at the line
Northern Illinois @ UNLV
Sun, Nov 1
Northern Illinois
UNLV
17
33
Explosiveness
UNLV
Efficiency
UNLV
Trenches
UNLV
+1.4 at the line
Stanford @ Louisville
Sat, Oct 31
Stanford
Louisville
20
41
Explosiveness
Louisville
Efficiency
Louisville
Trenches
Stanford
+2.9 at the line
Troy @ James Madison
Thu, Oct 29
Troy
James Madison
19
35
Explosiveness
James Madison
Efficiency
James Madison
Trenches
James Madison
+0.1 at the line
Minnesota @ Indiana
Sat, Oct 31
Minnesota
Indiana
16
31
Explosiveness
Indiana
Efficiency
Indiana
Trenches
Indiana
+3.7 at the line
The grade is our conviction in our own call: how big the projected margin is, and whether explosiveness, efficiency and the trenches agree.
We post at most 6 a week and nothing below a B+. A high grade means a clearer mismatch, and the books know it too. A high grade does not mean a betting edge.
Explosiveness and efficiency — measured as opponent-adjusted predicted points added, on both sides of the ball — set the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Every rating is computed as of that game’s kickoff, using only games already played, so no projection is built with hindsight.
The trenches are shown, not baked in. We tested whether O-line / D-line play — line yards, short-yardage push, and stuff rate — improves the projection. On four seasons the model was never fit on, it did not sharpen the winner call and made the margin error slightly worse. Line play is already inside the efficiency numbers, so adding it again just adds noise. We show who wins at the line because it’s a real part of the story — we just don’t let it move the projection when the data says it shouldn’t.
Weeks 1-3 carry in last season. A team needs three games before its current-year rating means anything, so until then we use its full prior-season rating; the projected score gets noticeably looser, and games marked carry-in are the ones still using it.
The board turns over Tuesday at noon ET. A week’s games stay up all the way through the following Monday, and the next week’s board replaces them Tuesday midday.
no data
Cash Cheeks
1.24 PPA/play
Reis Kessel◄
0.76 PPA/play
Bad
2.72 line yds
Bad◄
2.94 line yds
Bad
18% stuff rate
Good◄
21% stuff rate
Bad
9% front-7 havoc
Elite◄
11% front-7 havoc
Bad
1.05 2nd-lvl yds
Good◄
0.93 2nd-lvl yds
Bad
50% pass succ allowed
Good◄
35% pass succ allowed
Average
1.59 expl. allowed
Good◄
1.52 expl. allowed
Grades are percentiles against all FBS teams this season. QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary player at that spot on his own production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s on-field production (line yards, stuff rate, havoc, coverage) rather than individual players. Not PFF grades.
Average
no data
Average
no data
Herschel Turner
0.35 PPA/play
Wayne Knight◄
0.37 PPA/play
Average
no data
Average
no data
Trace Estes◄
0.93 PPA/play
Brayden Loftin
0.47 PPA/play
Bad
2.92 line yds
Elite◄
3.50 line yds
Average
14% stuff rate
Elite◄
24% stuff rate
Average
9% front-7 havoc
Elite◄
12% front-7 havoc
Average
1.06 2nd-lvl yds
Elite◄
0.84 2nd-lvl yds
Good
35% pass succ allowed
Elite◄
30% pass succ allowed
Average◄
1.61 expl. allowed
Bad
1.75 expl. allowed
Grades are percentiles against all FBS teams this season. QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary player at that spot on his own production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s on-field production (line yards, stuff rate, havoc, coverage) rather than individual players. Not PFF grades.
Average
no data
Average
no data
Telly Johnson Jr.◄
0.20 PPA/play
Jai'Den Thomas
0.03 PPA/play
Average
no data
Average
no data
Joe Stein
1.02 PPA/play
Keyan Burnett◄
0.18 PPA/play
Average
3.06 line yds
Average◄
3.06 line yds
Bad◄
15% stuff rate
Bad
14% stuff rate
Bad
6% front-7 havoc
Average◄
8% front-7 havoc
Bad
1.27 2nd-lvl yds
Bad◄
1.33 2nd-lvl yds
Bad
51% pass succ allowed
Elite◄
34% pass succ allowed
Average◄
1.53 expl. allowed
Bad
1.73 expl. allowed
Grades are percentiles against all FBS teams this season. QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary player at that spot on his own production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s on-field production (line yards, stuff rate, havoc, coverage) rather than individual players. Not PFF grades.
Average
no data
Average
no data
Micah Ford
0.15 PPA/play
Isaac Brown◄
0.23 PPA/play
Average
no data
Average
no data
Aiden Black
1.65 PPA/play
Jaleel Skinner◄
0.93 PPA/play
Average◄
2.92 line yds
Bad
2.72 line yds
Bad
15% stuff rate
Average◄
13% stuff rate
Bad
7% front-7 havoc
Bad◄
8% front-7 havoc
Bad
1.27 2nd-lvl yds
Average◄
0.93 2nd-lvl yds
Bad
46% pass succ allowed
Good◄
41% pass succ allowed
Bad◄
1.52 expl. allowed
Bad
1.79 expl. allowed
Grades are percentiles against all FBS teams this season. QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary player at that spot on his own production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s on-field production (line yards, stuff rate, havoc, coverage) rather than individual players. Not PFF grades.
Average
no data
Average
no data
Gavin Griffin
0.15 PPA/play
George Pettaway◄
0.19 PPA/play
Average
no data
Average
no data
Fabian Rogosch
1.37 PPA/play
Cole Keller◄
1.06 PPA/play
Average
3.03 line yds
Elite◄
3.22 line yds
Bad
18% stuff rate
Good◄
19% stuff rate
Good
10% front-7 havoc
Good◄
10% front-7 havoc
Good
0.91 2nd-lvl yds
Good◄
0.88 2nd-lvl yds
Average
40% pass succ allowed
Good◄
37% pass succ allowed
Average
1.54 expl. allowed
Average◄
1.53 expl. allowed
Grades are percentiles against all FBS teams this season. QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary player at that spot on his own production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s on-field production (line yards, stuff rate, havoc, coverage) rather than individual players. Not PFF grades.
Average
no data
Average
no data
Xavier Ford
-0.10 PPA/play
Turbo Richard◄
0.15 PPA/play
Average
no data
Average
no data
Roman Voss◄
0.78 PPA/play
Brock Schott
1.04 PPA/play
Bad
2.22 line yds
Good◄
3.32 line yds
Good
23% stuff rate
Elite◄
24% stuff rate
Elite
14% front-7 havoc
Elite◄
14% front-7 havoc
Good
1.03 2nd-lvl yds
Elite◄
0.72 2nd-lvl yds
Elite◄
37% pass succ allowed
Average
37% pass succ allowed
Good◄
1.46 expl. allowed
Bad
1.60 expl. allowed
Grades are percentiles against all FBS teams this season. QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary player at that spot on his own production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s on-field production (line yards, stuff rate, havoc, coverage) rather than individual players. Not PFF grades.
