A FIP-based engine that turns public MLB data into a defensible lean — which starter has the edge, and whether the game leans Over or Under. Analysis and entertainment, not a guaranteed outcome.
2026 Season · Verified Backtest
Record
635-430-0
Win %
59.6%
Units
+147.85
ROI
13.9%
By month
Mar
22-18
+2.02u
Apr
114-87
+16.74u
May
131-79
+40.21u
Jun
114-71
+32.74u
Jul
88-68
+12.08u
Aug
117-71
+35.47u
Sep
49-36
+8.59u
Illustrative backtest, not a live P&L. Over/Under is graded vs a run benchmark (≈9.0), not a real sportsbook line; pitcher edges are graded by opponent runs. Current-season ratings applied to past games (a look-ahead), so a true forward-tracked record will be lower.
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2026-09-15
Cristopher Sánchez
PHI · 2.79 ERA
Jackson Kent
WSH · 6.59 ERA
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The Sizzlin MLB Model is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
Jack Perkins
ATH · 6.53 ERA
Griffin Jax
TB · 3.99 ERA
Blade Tidwell
SF · 4.82 ERA
Andre Pallante
STL · 3.45 ERA
Shane Baz
BAL · 4.05 ERA
Sean Manaea
NYM · 4.79 ERA
Max Fried
NYY · 2.73 ERA
Bailey Ober
MIN · 4.28 ERA
Logan Gilbert
SEA · 3.72 ERA
Ryan Johnson
LAA · 5.12 ERA
Michael Wacha
KC · 3.25 ERA
Hunter Brown
HOU · 3.52 ERA
Davis Martin
CWS · 4.05 ERA
Foster Griffin
CLE · 3.65 ERA
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
LAD · 2.62 ERA
Rhett Lowder
CIN · 5.81 ERA
Martín Pérez
ATL · 3.08 ERA
Kevin Gausman
CHC · 4.60 ERA
Janson Junk
MIA · 4.54 ERA
Michael Soroka
ARI · 3.53 ERA
