A FIP-based engine that turns public MLB data into a defensible lean — which starter has the edge, and whether the game leans Over or Under. Analysis and entertainment, not a guaranteed outcome.
2026 Season · Verified Backtest
Record
556-391-0
Win %
58.7%
Units
+114.96
ROI
12.1%
By month
Mar
27-23
+1.57u
Apr
130-103
+15.30u
May
153-84
+55.23u
Jun
131-93
+26.21u
Jul
115-88
+16.65u
Illustrative backtest, not a live P&L. Over/Under is graded vs a run benchmark (≈9.0), not a real sportsbook line; pitcher edges are graded by opponent runs. Current-season ratings applied to past games (a look-ahead), so a true forward-tracked record will be lower.
Best plays of the day
Pick of the Day
The Model
TEX @ HOU
Over
Justin's Pick
Justin Tapp
PHI @ BAL
Under
2026-08-01
Quinn Mathews
STL
Kevin Gausman
TOR · 4.51 ERA
Sizzlin MLB Model · Free Preview
Every lean is open through launch. Paid model access turns on at launch — for now, enjoy the full model on the house.
The Sizzlin MLB Model is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
Producer's Pick
The Booth
WSH @ ATL
Over
Jordan Hicks
CWS · 3.19 ERA
Drew Rasmussen
TB · 3.07 ERA
Connor Prielipp
MIN · 4.73 ERA
Logan Gilbert
SEA · 3.44 ERA
Tyler Mahle
SF · 4.96 ERA
Walker Buehler
SD · 5.13 ERA
Even matchup — no lean.
Tyler Phillips
MIA · 3.52 ERA
Zac Thornton
NYM · 2.43 ERA
Payton Tolle
BOS · 3.32 ERA
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
LAD · 2.72 ERA
Robert Gasser
MIL · 4.71 ERA
José Soriano
LAA · 3.29 ERA
Even matchup — no lean.
Jacob deGrom
TEX · 3.67 ERA
Ronel Blanco
HOU · 8.10 ERA
Luinder Avila
KC · 4.95 ERA
Ryan Feltner
COL · 5.73 ERA
Kohl Drake
ARI · 5.00 ERA
Parker Messick
CLE · 2.59 ERA
Braxton Ashcraft
PIT · 4.05 ERA
Andrew Abbott
CIN · 3.85 ERA
Max Fried
NYY · 3.23 ERA
David Peterson
CHC · 5.80 ERA
Cristopher Sánchez
PHI · 2.73 ERA
Shane Baz
BAL · 3.98 ERA
Miles Mikolas
WSH · 5.65 ERA
Reynaldo López
ATL · 3.64 ERA
Framber Valdez
DET · 4.53 ERA
Jack Perkins
ATH · 6.45 ERA
Even matchup — no lean.