Sizzlin Sports is a sports show and a set of statistical models built by two people who got tired of trends with no sample sizes. We publish the analysis, the methodology and the evidence — including the case against.
The Show
Raunchy Sports Comedy. Kasey Orr and Justin Tapp break down the games, the bets, and everything too hot for network TV. Live every Friday at 7:00 PM PT.
The Hosts
Kasey Orr
Co-host & Producer · Design & Models
Born in 1991 in Marysville, Washington, Kasey came up on music, pop culture, and architecture — a combination that explains almost everything about how Sizzlin Sports is built. He's the logic and the architect behind both the show and What's Sizzlin', the guy who cares as much about how a stat is framed as whether it's right. Every graphic, render, and model carries his fingerprints; if it looks sharp, that's him. He'd rather kill a beautiful idea than ship one that doesn't hold up. These days he's in Reno making a living as a semi-pro poker player — which is where the discipline comes from. Years of grinding variance, respecting the bankroll, and folding hands that feel good but don't survive taught him to treat a betting model the same way: throw out the pretty ones that fall apart on a season they've never seen, keep only what actually works. And whatever the stakes, Kasey will never say no to a card game.
♠ Kasey Orr — Poker Results →
Justin Tapp
Host · Comedian & Professional Sports Bettor
Born in 1990 in Kingston, Washington — a place he'll happily remind you is “just a ferry ride from every other city in the world” — Justin is a former prom king and an all-in Seattle sports fan with the annual season tickets to prove it. Don't let the superfan energy fool you, though — under the noise is one of the sharpest minds in the building. Justin is the mind behind our MLB models. He's also the kind of gambler who once ran out a twenty-two-leg parlay, watched all 22 legs cash, and walked away paid handsomely enough that the ticket became permanent show lore. Where Kasey brings the cold math, Justin brings the heartbeat: the fan who still lives and dies with every possession, and the reason the show never forgets it's supposed to be fun. He tagged along with Kasey to Reno in 2020, turning a chaotic year into a fresh start and a new chapter — the kind of loyalty that tells you most of what you need to know about him. He's been the show's resident beacon of good energy ever since, in the gym daily and, by every measure, the best version of himself yet. If Sizzlin Sports has a pulse, it's his.
The Models
Every model here is built from public data and tested the same way: we train it on old seasons, then grade it on seasons it has never seen. If it only works on the data it was built from, it doesn’t ship.
Sizzlin MLB Model
MLBFIP pitcher & matchup edges → Over/Under leans
NFL Matchup Research
NFLThe whole schedule, week by week, with matchup decks: line movement, trends tested for luck, head-to-head, injuries and the building
NCAAF Sizzlin Simulator
NCAAFGame simulator → our highest-graded games each week
NBA Matchup Research
NBAEvery night's games with matchup decks, and the Prop Lab inside each game's deck
Sizzlin CBB Score Predictor
NCAABTempo-free efficiency (KenPom-style) → projected scores
NHL Predictor
NHLProjected score, win odds and the puck line for every game · both starters on the card
Our Standard
Anyone can show you a 73% record. Take enough situations, slice them enough ways, and a few will look unbeatable purely by chance — we know, because we generated over a hundred thousand betting trends to find out. Hundreds of them cleared 70%. Tested on seasons they hadn’t seen, they collectively returned a loss.
So we hold our research to the standard we’d want applied to anyone selling us numbers: every trend carries its sample size and how often luck alone would produce it. Models get validated out-of-sample or they don’t go behind the paywall, and where a model can’t beat the closing line, we say so on its page and show how far off it lands next to the market’s number — even when the market is closer.
That’s the whole pitch. Not a hot streak — the evidence for and against, and how much of it there is.
The Community
Posting picks, tracking your record, talking trash, and the leaderboard cost nothing and always will. Membership opens the full research — the community doesn’t need a paywall to be worth showing up to.
