Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles: Three Predictions and Three Best Bets

Jalen Hurts is not playing tonight.

He is on injured reserve with a deep vein thrombosis and blood clots in both of his lungs.

Two weeks ago he played every snap of a game in London with a clot in his calf that his team already knew about.

Tanner McKee starts. DeVonta Smith is out. A.J. Brown is a Patriot.

This line opened Eagles -3. It is Cowboys -4.5 now.

The book is not reacting to one bad week. It is reacting to what is left.

DALLAS COWBOYS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Monday, October 26 | 5:15 PM PT | ESPN/ABC

Line: Cowboys -4.5 | O/U: 43.5

Weather: 60°F, mostly clear, gusts up to 12 mph

Both teams are 2-4. Only one of them is still the team it was in September.

DraftKings has Dallas -4.5 (-108) and the moneyline at -205 / +170. The total opened at 48.5 and has been bet down five full points to 43.5. A favorite flipped, a key number got crossed, and the total fell off a cliff. That is the market telling you exactly what it thinks of the Eagles' offense without its quarterback.

I agree with it. I just think it has not gone far enough.

WHAT THE EAGLES HAVE HANDED JALEN HURTS

Start with London, because that is where this season went from bad to broken.

Hurts got cleated in the calf against the Rams on October 4. He practiced that Thursday, told the medical staff about it afterward, practiced again Friday and flew to London with the team. On October 10, the day before the Jacksonville game, an ultrasound found a superficial blood clot.

The team's own explanation is that its staff and the London doctors decided activity and mobility mattered and that "Jalen could safely play."

So he played. He was at a London hospital until about 3 a.m. the night before the game, came out of the tunnel just before the coin toss, and played every offensive snap: 21 of 40, 220 yards, one touchdown, a 19-17 loss. Then he flew home.

On October 14 a follow-up ultrasound showed the clot had moved. He was ruled out on the 15th and put on IR on the 17th. On the 19th the team and his agent announced a deep vein thrombosis and bilateral pulmonary emboli. He is on blood thinners, barred from all football activities while he takes them, and reportedly expected to miss the rest of the season. The good news, and it is real good news: the team says his prognosis is very good and it expects a full recovery.

Now the part that should make every Eagles fan furious.

His teammates did not know, according to Dontayvion Wicks, who said they had no idea he played that game with a clot. The day the diagnosis came out, Nick Sirianni was the only team official made available. No Howie Roseman. No Jeffrey Lurie. No one from the medical staff. And when Sirianni was asked why his quarterback flew home with a clot, he kept telling reporters he is not a medical expert.

To be fair, and I want to be fair about this because it is a man's health: nobody has shown that the trip or the game caused what happened next. Reports describe the clot as provoked by the cleat to his calf. Roger Goodell says protocols were followed, and the league reportedly will not punish the team. The league's chief medical officer defended the staff. Hurts himself waited four days to report the calf. But after the players' union demanded an investigation, the NFL and the NFLPA announced a joint review of the whole thing this weekend. When the league and the union agree something needs a second look, it needs a second look.

And London is only the latest question about how this organization has handled him.

FIVE COORDINATORS, NO LINE, NO RECEIVERS

Here is what Jalen Hurts has been handed since he took this team to a Super Bowl.

The coordinators. Shane Steichen left for Indianapolis in 2023. Brian Johnson was fired after one year. Kellen Moore lasted one year and left for New Orleans. Kevin Patullo was removed after one year. This season the Eagles handed the offense to Sean Mannion, a first-time play-caller who was 33 when they hired him in January. The AP's count: five offensive coordinators in five seasons. Nobody builds anything with that kind of turnover, and the quarterback wears every bit of it.

The line. Jason Kelce retired in 2024. This season, three of the five linemen who started Week 1 have been out of the lineup. Lane Johnson retired in the middle of the season. Cam Jurgens was traded to Baltimore. Landon Dickerson has been on IR since Week 1 and is only now questionable to return. Through four weeks Hurts was under pressure on 43.2% of his dropbacks, third-highest in the league per Next Gen Stats. Over his career he has been sacked 196 times in the regular season alone.

The receivers. A.J. Brown, the best receiver this franchise has had in a generation, was traded to New England on June 1. Before that deal, the Eagles traded for Wicks and drafted Makai Lemon in the first round. Tonight both Wicks and DeVonta Smith are out.

The leaks. This spring, ESPN published a story built on more than a dozen sources, and in it one anonymous team source called him not the most coachable. Roseman called the reporting unfair. Nobody put a name on that quote.

And through all of it, this man played. He finished the 2022 Bears game with a sprained throwing shoulder. He played the playoff game that ended the 2023 season with a dislocated finger on his throwing hand. He hurt his knee in the 2024 playoffs, played the NFC Championship in a brace, and then won Super Bowl MVP. He took a late hit at Chicago this year, got checked for a concussion, and came back in. Before this month he had not missed more than two games in a season since becoming the starter.

He gave this franchise a parade and a $255 million quarterback who played through injury after injury. What they gave him back was a revolving door at coordinator, a disappearing offensive line, his number one receiver traded away, anonymous quotes, and a decision to clear him to play and fly home from London with a known clot in his leg, a decision the league and the players' union are now reviewing.

That is the story of this season. Tonight is the first time a national audience watches the result.

WHAT IS LEFT IN PHILADELPHIA

The Eagles have lost four straight for the first time since 2020. They have scored 24 or fewer in nine straight games. They average 17.7 points.

Tanner McKee's start against Carolina: 26 of 45, 215 yards, one touchdown, a 25-14 loss.

As of last week the Eagles went three-and-out on 38% of their possessions, the highest rate in the league. Their second-half offense is the worst in football at 5.0 points per game.

The receivers tonight are rookie Makai Lemon, Darius Cooper, Hollywood Brown and Elijah Moore. Dallas Goedert expects to play through a knee injury, and the market has moved his receiving line up from 42.5 to 51.5, because somebody has to catch the ball.

The defense is thin too. Nolan Smith is out with a concussion, Michael Carter II is out, and Jonathan Greenard is questionable with an ankle.

The one real weapon is Saquon Barkley, and he is questionable with a hamstring after missing time. He is trending toward playing. Remember that name, because he is how I lose this.

DALLAS IS 2-4 FOR DIFFERENT REASONS

Dallas lost at the Giants, lost to Baltimore by three in Rio, lost to Tampa Bay and lost at Green Bay. They are not a good team. Their bigger problem is the defense, even though the offense has managed only 29 points over the last two games.

They score 25.2 a game. Dak Prescott has 1,639 yards, 10 touchdowns and a QBR of 75.4, sixth in the league. CeeDee Lamb has 48 catches, the most any Cowboy has had through six games. Javonte Williams already has seven rushing touchdowns.

Yes, Dak threw four interceptions in the last two games. He also gets an Eagles secondary missing Carter, a pass rush missing Nolan Smith, and an opponent that cannot sustain a drive long enough to keep him off the field.

KASEY'S THREE PREDICTIONS

1. THE EAGLES DO NOT SCORE A SECOND-HALF TOUCHDOWN

Five points a game after halftime is the worst in football, and that was with Hurts for most of it.

Philadelphia's points all come before halftime, and two of their three scores are field goals.

2. CEEDEE LAMB IS THE BEST PLAYER ON THE FIELD

Philadelphia is missing a starting corner and one of its two sack leaders, and Dallas needs no one else to beat them.

Lamb leads every receiver in this game in catches and yards.

3. SAQUON GETS HIS YARDS AND IT DOES NOT MATTER

Dallas allows 149.8 rushing yards a game, the most in the NFL. If Barkley plays, he will find room.

Barkley goes over 60 yards, the Eagles still trail by double digits in the fourth, and the run game gets abandoned.

KASEY'S THREE BEST BETS

1. DALLAS COWBOYS -4.5 (-108)

The Eagles have averaged 17.7 points a game, and Hurts started five of those six. Now they have McKee, no Smith, no Wicks, no Brown, and three of their five opening-day linemen out of the lineup since early in the season.

The line moved from Eagles -3 to Cowboys -4.5. I am not fading that move. I am riding it.

Dallas has scored 31 or more three times this season. Philadelphia has not scored more than 24 in nine straight games, and most of those came with its starting quarterback.

BEST BET: DALLAS COWBOYS -4.5 (-108)

2. CEEDEE LAMB OVER 77.5 RECEIVING YARDS

Forty-eight catches through six games, a franchise record for this point in a season. The Eagles' coverage is down a starting corner, and their pass rush is down Nolan Smith.

When Philadelphia can't stay on the field, Dallas runs more plays, and more plays means more Lamb. His line opened at 82.5 and has dipped to 77.5, which I think is the market overcorrecting for a slow game script that I don't believe in. Shop the price on this one too.

BEST BET: CEEDEE LAMB OVER 77.5 RECEIVING YARDS

3. TANNER McKEE UNDER 193.5 PASSING YARDS

This number opened at 213.5 and it has already been cut twenty yards. Cut it again.

McKee threw for 215 against Carolina, and that took 45 attempts in a game the Eagles were chasing from start to finish. Tonight he is throwing to a rookie receiver and Goedert on a bad knee, behind a line that let the starter get pressured on 43% of his dropbacks, against a Dallas front with Quinnen Williams and Kenny Clark. If Barkley plays, the Eagles will try to hide McKee behind him for as long as the score allows.

The risk to this one is the same script I'm predicting. If the Eagles abandon the run while chasing, McKee's attempts climb the way they did against Carolina. I'm betting the pressure and that receiver room cap the yards anyway.

Prop prices move. Shop this one before you place it.

BEST BET: TANNER McKEE UNDER 193.5 PASSING YARDS

FINAL SCORE

COWBOYS 31, EAGLES 13

BEST BET: DALLAS COWBOYS -4.5 (-108)

BEST BET: CEEDEE LAMB OVER 77.5 RECEIVING YARDS

BEST BET: TANNER McKEE UNDER 193.5 PASSING YARDS

Three bets, one story. Dallas moves it, Lamb gets his, and McKee spends the night checking it down behind a line that is not built to protect anybody.

Yes, 31-13 is 44 points, a half point over the total. That is exactly why the total is not one of my bets. I'm not betting a hook.

Where I lose two of three is Saquon. If his hamstring is fine and he runs for 150 against the worst run defense in the league, the Eagles shorten the game, Dallas runs fewer plays, and Lamb sees fewer targets. The McKee under is the one bet that survives that script. Size accordingly.

And for everyone in green tonight: don't take it out on McKee. He didn't build this roster.

Give me Dallas.

— Kasey "BigSlick" Orr | Sizzlin Sports

Odds and prop lines can move before kickoff. Check current numbers before placing any wager.