Washington Commanders @ San Francisco 49ers: Three Predictions and Three Best Bets

One of the two unbeaten teams left is playing tonight with its receiver room in pieces.

Deebo Samuel is out. Christian Kirk and Demarcus Robinson are on injured reserve. Mike Evans is questionable with ribs.

And it still should not matter tonight.

Because Washington has not held a single opponent under 24 points this season.

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Monday, October 19 | 5:15 PM PT | ESPN/ABC

Line: 49ers -7.5 | O/U: 51.5

Weather: 65°F, intermittent clouds

SAN FRANCISCO IS 5-0 AND THE RECEIVER ROOM IS A TRIAGE WARD

Start with the record, because it is the only perfect one left in the NFC: 30.8 points a game scored, 18.6 allowed. Nobody has beaten them.

Now look at who is actually available to catch a football. Deebo Samuel is out with a hamstring. Kirk and Robinson are both on IR. Mike Evans is questionable with ribs, and the market has already voted on that one — his receiving line has been cut from 78.5 at open down to 64.5.

That leaves Kittle as the one target Purdy can count on, and the market has voted on him too, moving his number up from 63.5 to 68.5 — above Evans' line now, even though Evans still leads the team in targets and yards.

So the shape of this offense tonight is obvious. Kittle on every important down, Christian McCaffrey touching it twenty times, and Brock Purdy improvising when the first read is not there.

Which brings me to the third bet, but we will get there.

WASHINGTON CANNOT STOP ANYBODY, AND NOW THEY CANNOT RUN IT EITHER

The Commanders are 1-3-1 and allowing 29.8 points a game. The game log is the whole argument:

24. 37. 31. 30. 27.

Five games, nobody under 24. That is not a bad week, that is who they are.

And the backfield just got thinner. Jacory Croskey-Merritt is out with a groin, and Jeremy McNichols is on IR and only questionable to be activated. What that leaves is Rachaad White — 29.5 rushing yards a game on seven or eight carries — and Austin Ekeler. The market jumped White's rushing line from 20.5 at open all the way to 46.5, which tells you he is getting the whole workload whether or not he has ever handled it.

Three safeties are questionable on top of it: Nick Cross, Tyler Owens and Percy Butler. Their best pass rusher, Charles Omenihu, is out.

Marcus Mariota is out with an MCL, so there is no insurance behind Jayden Daniels either.

WHY THIS DOES NOT TURN INTO A ROUT

Nick Bosa is out with a calf, and Dre Greenlaw is suspended. That is San Francisco's two best front-seven players unavailable on the same night, against a quarterback who has run for 31, 69 and 103 yards in his three appearances.

Washington will move it. They scored 33 on Seattle and 27 on the Giants. They are not a bad offense — they are a bad defense with a quarterback who makes plays when the pocket breaks.

That is why I am on the over as hard as I am on the side. Washington's games have averaged 52.8 points, the highest profile of either team here.

KASEY'S THREE PREDICTIONS

1. KITTLE IS THE PASSING GAME

With Deebo out, Kirk and Robinson on IR and Evans at less than full health, there is nobody else to throw it to on an important down.

Kittle leads the 49ers in targets and catches, and it is not close.

2. WASHINGTON'S RUN GAME DOES NOT SHOW UP

Rachaad White has never carried a full load, and he is being handed one against a defense allowing 18.6 a game. The market agrees with where this is going — it has moved Jayden Daniels' own rushing line from 32.5 up to 39.5.

Washington finishes under 90 yards on the ground and Daniels is their leading rusher.

3. IT IS A GAME INTO THE FOURTH QUARTER

San Francisco's last three wins came by six, ten and three. Without Bosa and Greenlaw they do not get to put this away early.

Washington is within one score entering the fourth, and San Francisco pulls away late.

KASEY'S THREE BEST BETS

1. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS -7.5

The 49ers are 5-0, score 30.8 and allow 18.6. Washington is 1-3-1, allows 29.8, has not held anyone under 24, and is handing the ball to a back who has never carried a full load behind a secondary with three questionable safeties.

And here is the part that settles it for me. With all those San Francisco injuries public, the market has moved two points toward the 49ers since this opened — from -5.5 to -7.5, with the moneyline going from -250 out to -410.

Money that knows about Deebo and Bosa is still buying San Francisco. I will lay it.

BEST BET: SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS -7.5

2. OVER 51.5

Washington's five games have averaged 52.8 points — more than either team's own total here. San Francisco's have averaged 49.4.

Washington's number sits on top of this one. San Francisco's 49.4 is just under it — and the one defense in this game capable of holding a total down is missing Bosa and Greenlaw, with Marques Sigle out and two more defensive backs questionable.

Two honest notes, because this is the shakiest of the three. My projected score clears it by a point and a half, not a touchdown. And Stefon Diggs is questionable with a hamstring — if Washington's number two receiver sits, the side I am on gets better and this one gets worse.

BEST BET: OVER 51.5

3. BROCK PURDY OVER 19.5 RUSHING YARDS

This is the one I like most and nobody is talking about.

Purdy's rushing yards by week:

29. 30. 34. 29. 6.

Four of five over this number, averaging 25.6 a game. The only miss was Week 5.

Now give him a receiver room with Deebo out, two more on IR and Evans hurting. When the first read is not open, he runs. That is what he has done all year with a healthy group.

The line has already crept from 16.5 to 19.5 and it is still under his average.

BEST BET: BROCK PURDY OVER 19.5 RUSHING YARDS

FINAL SCORE

49ERS 33, COMMANDERS 20

BEST BET: SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS -7.5

BEST BET: OVER 51.5

BEST BET: BROCK PURDY OVER 19.5 RUSHING YARDS

Thirteen points, fifty-three on the board, and Purdy scrambling his way past twenty because there is nobody to throw it to.

San Francisco goes to 6-0.

— Kasey "BigSlick" Orr | Sizzlin Sports

Odds and prop lines can move before kickoff. Check current numbers before placing any wager.