Seattle Seahawks @ Denver Broncos: Three Predictions and Three Best Bets

Two 3-2 teams at Mile High on a short week.

Both of them clinging to the pace in two of the hardest divisions in football.

And the whole night comes down to one question Denver does not have a good answer for.

How do you cover Jaxon Smith-Njigba without your best corner and your starting safety?

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ DENVER BRONCOS

Thursday, October 15 | 5:15 PM PT | Prime Video

Line: Seahawks -2.5 | O/U: 40.5

SEATTLE'S PASSING GAME AGAINST A SECONDARY MISSING ITS TWO BEST COVER MEN

Denver walks into Thursday night without Pat Surtain II and without Talanoa Hufanga. Riley Moss is questionable on top of it.

That is a bad week to have Jaxon Smith-Njigba coming to town.

His receiving totals through five games:

122. 155. 128. 76. 102.

Four 100-yard games in five weeks. 583 yards and seven touchdowns on the season. An average of 116.6 a game.

The number has already moved up and I understand why. You are not sneaking this one past a sportsbook.

But a line moves for two different reasons, and only one of them should scare you off. Sometimes the market is correcting. Sometimes the matchup genuinely changed.

Surtain is out. Hufanga is out. Moss might not play.

This one changed.

WHERE IS DENVER'S OFFENSE?

Bo Nix's passing yards, week by week:

131. 288. 186. 214. 123.

One good night and four that were not. He threw for 123 yards against the Chargers last week.

Denver is scoring 19.4 points a game.

And now they get a Seattle defense allowing just 150.8 passing yards a game, the fewest in the NFL — and first by a full six yards a game over the Rams.

That is a brutal draw for an offense already struggling to push the ball downfield. Denver's path tonight is an ugly rock fight — run it, hold the ball, make Seattle drive the whole field, and keep JSN standing on the sideline watching.

If the Broncos let Seattle dictate the tempo, I do not like their chances.

WHAT WORRIES ME ABOUT SEATTLE

One thing. Turnovers.

The Seahawks went toe to toe with the No. 1 team in our power rankings last week and lost 32-29 to San Francisco — and they gave the ball away four times doing it.

You cannot do that against good teams. Denver's defense is still dangerous even banged up, and short fields are how a team with a struggling offense stays in a game it has no business being in.

Clean it up and I think Seattle is simply the better football team here.

Hand Denver three short fields and everything I just said stops being true.

KASEY'S THREE PREDICTIONS

1. THIS IS A ROCK FIGHT FOR A HALF

Sean Payton comes out conservative. Establish the run, protect Nix, keep Seattle's offense on the bench.

For a while it works. I think we're looking at something like 10-7 or 10-10 at the break.

2. SEATTLE FINDS THE MATCHUP AND KEEPS GOING BACK TO IT

One catch becomes three. Three becomes six. Move him inside, move him outside, make somebody in that secondary prove they can handle him.

JSN is sitting around 80 yards entering the fourth quarter and finishes over 100.

3. SEATTLE'S DEFENSE DECIDES IT

Denver hangs around. Nix makes a couple of plays. And then the Seahawks force the mistake that flips the field.

Short field, touchdown, ballgame.

KASEY'S THREE BEST BETS

1. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -2.5

Seattle is averaging 26.8 points a game and now they get a Denver secondary missing its best corner and its starting safety. That is the first problem.

The second is that Denver's offense has not shown me enough to believe it can keep pace if Seattle gets into the mid-20s.

Then there is Mike Macdonald. Seattle have been money in exactly these spots under him — 11-1 straight up as a road favorite across his three seasons. The against-the-spread record is nowhere near that dominant, which is precisely why I do not want this number drifting anywhere near three.

I am playing it at 2.5 tonight rather than waiting.

If you would rather not lay the points, the moneyline at -142 gets you there too.

BEST BET: SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -2.5

2. JAXON SMITH-NJIGBA OVER 93.5 RECEIVING YARDS

122. 155. 128. 76. 102.

No Surtain. No Hufanga. Maybe no Moss.

Since Sam Darnold took back over in Week 3 he has shown us exactly who he looks for when Seattle needs a play, and Seattle should keep attacking that secondary until Denver proves somebody can handle it.

If you can find a better price on JSN over 95.5 rushing + receiving, I do not hate that route either. I am perfectly happy with the receiving number.

BEST BET: JAXON SMITH-NJIGBA OVER 93.5 RECEIVING YARDS

3. BO NIX UNDER 13.5 RUSHING YARDS

This is my favorite kind of bet. It is boring, and that is the point.

Nix's rushing yards through five games:

2. 6. 7. 10. 10.

He has not reached eleven rushing yards once this season. Tonight's number is 13.5, down from 14.5 at open — three and a half yards clear of his season high.

Could one scramble ruin it? Of course. That is the risk every time you take a quarterback rushing under.

But based on what Denver has actually asked him to do through five games, fourteen rushing yards is a number I am happy to fade.

BEST BET: BO NIX UNDER 13.5 RUSHING YARDS

FINAL SCORE

SEAHAWKS 24, BRONCOS 17

BEST BET: SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -2.5

BEST BET: JAXON SMITH-NJIGBA OVER 93.5 RECEIVING YARDS

BEST BET: BO NIX UNDER 13.5 RUSHING YARDS

Seattle gets back on track. JSN goes over a hundred again. Nix stays under his rushing number.

And the Seahawks leave Denver at 4-2.

Let's ride.

— Kasey "BigSlick" Orr | Sizzlin Sports

Odds and prop lines can move before kickoff. Check current numbers before placing any wager.