We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Dak Prescott◄
0.14 EPA/att
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
Jalen Hurts
0.05 EPA/att
Javonte Williams◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.35 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Average
6.6% sack rate
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Average◄
no data
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Dee Winters
0.8 impact/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
David Montgomery◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Henry To'oTo'o
0.8 impact/gm
Dru Phillips
0.6 cover/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Tre Tucker
0.18 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers◄
0.22 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Poona Ford◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Thomas Booker IV◄
no 2025 data
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Quay Walker
0.9 impact/gm
Jaylen Watson◄
0.4 cover/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Isaiah Pola-Mao
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Ja'Marr Chase
0.19 EPA/tgt
Zay Flowers◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki◄
0.07 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Good
5.3% sack rate
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Calais Campbell◄
0.7 press/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Patrick Mahomes
0.10 EPA/att
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
Zach Charbonnet◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce
0.32 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Average
7.4% sack rate
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
no 2025 data
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman◄
0.5 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Jared Goff
0.14 EPA/att
Josh Jacobs
-0.01 EPA/tch
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Amon-Ra St. Brown
0.28 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.61 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta
0.53 EPA/tgt
Average
5.6% sack rate
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Alim McNeill
0.3 disrupt/gm
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes◄
0.7 impact/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Evan Williams
0.6 cover/gm
Kerby Joseph◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Courtland Sutton
0.30 EPA/tgt
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Bad
8.3% sack rate
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Roy Lopez
0.4 disrupt/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Jonathon Cooper◄
0.8 impact/gm
Zaven Collins
0.4 impact/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Denzel Burke
0.7 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Tua Tagovailoa
0.03 EPA/att
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Bijan Robinson
0.03 EPA/tch
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Drake London◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.52 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.
0.18 EPA/tgt
Average
4.5% sack rate
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Alfred Collins
0.2 disrupt/gm
Da'Shawn Hand◄
no 2025 data
C.J. West◄
no 2025 data
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Dre Greenlaw
0.4 impact/gm
Divine Deablo◄
0.7 impact/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.◄
0.5 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown
0.5 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Garrett Wilson◄
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.33 EPA/tgt
Kenyon Sadiq
no 2025 data
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Kenneth Grant◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Jamien Sherwood
1.0 impact/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Minkah Fitzpatrick◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Baker Mayfield◄
0.00 EPA/att
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Chuba Hubbard◄
-0.05 EPA/tch
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Tetairoa McMillan◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble◄
0.14 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Bobby Brown III
0.2 disrupt/gm
Elijah Roberts◄
0.2 press/gm
Tershawn Wharton
0.2 press/gm
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Jaelan Phillips
0.7 impact/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Tony Pollard◄
-0.10 EPA/tch
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Carnell Tate◄
no 2025 data
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm◄
0.05 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Bad◄
8.9% sack rate
Mason Graham
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Amani Hooker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson◄
0.16 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Grover Stewart◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Sauce Gardner◄
0.5 cover/gm
Isaiah Rodgers
0.2 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Aaron Rodgers◄
0.04 EPA/att
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Chris Olave
0.19 EPA/tgt
Pat Freiermuth◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson
0.29 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Yahya Black◄
no 2025 data
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Cameron Jordan◄
no 2025 data
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Drake Maye◄
0.24 EPA/att
Caleb Williams
0.06 EPA/att
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
A.J. Brown◄
0.22 EPA/tgt
Rome Odunze
0.17 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry
0.35 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Average
8.7% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Christian Elliss
0.3 impact/gm
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Tyrique Stevenson◄
0.5 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Dillon Thieneman◄
no 2025 data
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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