We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Our 3 highest-conviction calls out of 14 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
NYJ
NE
17
30
Offense
NE
Defense
NE
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Drake Maye
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
Drake Maye◄
0.24 EPA/att
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
A.J. Brown◄
0.22 EPA/tgt
Kenyon Sadiq
no 2025 data
Hunter Henry◄
0.35 EPA/tgt
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Average◄
8.7% sack rate
Harrison Phillips◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Christian Elliss
0.3 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Minkah Fitzpatrick◄
0.6 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
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0.24 EPA/att
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
A.J. Brown◄
0.22 EPA/tgt
Kenyon Sadiq
no 2025 data
Hunter Henry◄
0.35 EPA/tgt
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Average◄
8.7% sack rate
Harrison Phillips◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Christian Elliss
0.3 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Minkah Fitzpatrick◄
0.6 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Cody Barton◄
0.7 impact/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Alontae Taylor◄
0.6 cover/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.
0.30 EPA/tgt
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Josh Sweat◄
no 2025 data
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Zaven Collins
0.4 impact/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts◄
0.05 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard◄
-0.05 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.14 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.35 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Average
6.6% sack rate
Bobby Brown III
0.2 disrupt/gm
Average◄
no data
Tershawn Wharton
0.2 press/gm
Jalen Carter◄
no 2025 data
Jaelan Phillips
0.7 impact/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell
0.7 cover/gm
Nick Scott◄
0.4 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jayden Daniels
-0.02 EPA/att
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
-0.02 EPA/tch
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Terry McLaurin◄
0.35 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.52 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Average
4.5% sack rate
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Alfred Collins
0.2 disrupt/gm
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
C.J. West
no 2025 data
Odafe Oweh◄
0.7 impact/gm
Dre Greenlaw
0.4 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Nick Cross
0.5 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Dak Prescott
0.14 EPA/att
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Josh Jacobs◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.61 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Average
5.6% sack rate
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Tre Tucker◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.57 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers
0.22 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Thomas Booker IV
no 2025 data
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
Christian Benford◄
0.3 cover/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Isaiah Pola-Mao
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Rashee Rice◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Oronde Gadsden
0.19 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Average◄
7.4% sack rate
Dalvin Tomlinson◄
no 2025 data
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Daiyan Henley◄
0.8 impact/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
L'Jarius Sneed◄
no 2025 data
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Bo Nix
0.08 EPA/att
Zach Charbonnet◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins
-0.00 EPA/tch
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Courtland Sutton
0.30 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Average
5.3% sack rate
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
D.J. Jones
0.4 disrupt/gm
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence
0.8 impact/gm
Jonathon Cooper◄
0.8 impact/gm
Josh Jobe
0.6 cover/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Aaron Rodgers◄
0.04 EPA/att
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Pat Freiermuth◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Average
6.4% sack rate
Yahya Black
no 2025 data
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Cameron Heyward◄
0.4 press/gm
Elijah Roberts
0.2 press/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Jacob Parrish◄
0.4 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker
0.6 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Jaxson Dart◄
0.01 EPA/att
Travis Etienne Jr.◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Bad◄
8.4% sack rate
Davon Godchaux◄
0.1 disrupt/gm
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Cameron Jordan◄
no 2025 data
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Kaden Elliss
1.0 impact/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Dru Phillips
0.6 cover/gm
Justin Reid◄
0.5 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Caleb Williams◄
0.06 EPA/att
Tua Tagovailoa
0.03 EPA/att
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Bijan Robinson
0.03 EPA/tch
Rome Odunze
0.17 EPA/tgt
Drake London◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.
0.18 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Elite
4.6% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Da'Shawn Hand
no 2025 data
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Tyrique Stevenson◄
0.5 cover/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Dillon Thieneman
no 2025 data
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
David Montgomery◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz
0.29 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Josh Hines-Allen
1.0 press/gm
Henry To'oTo'o
0.8 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Montaric Brown
0.7 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Zay Flowers◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews◄
0.02 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Mason Graham
0.4 disrupt/gm
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Nate Wiggins
0.7 cover/gm
Tyson Campbell
0.7 cover/gm
Malaki Starks◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
$9.99/mo
Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
$29.99/mo
All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.
