Data. Trends. Matchups. Insights.
In-depth research on NFL games: spreads, totals, trends tested against luck, injuries, matchup breakdowns and the crew's leans, all in one place. Pick a week, then a game.
Each team's season: schedule and results, record against the spread, injuries and history.
| Away | @ | Home | Spread | Total | Moneyline | Top Trend | Mind Alert | Status | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Final Prime Video |  SEA14 | @ |  DEN17 | SEA −2.5 −120 | 40.5 o−112 / u−108 | −155 +130 | — | Total ▼ 3 · 40.5 | No deck | |
Final NFL Net |  HOU34 | @ |  JAX31 | JAX −2.5 −118 | 42.5 o−105 / u−115 | +120 −142 | — | Fav flipped · JAX −2.5 | No deck | |
Final Fox |  BAL10 | @ |  CLE13 | BAL −3 −118 | 39.5 o−112 / u−108 | −170 +142 | — | Moved 3.5 → CLE | No deck | |
Final CBS |  CAR25 | @ |  PHI14 | CAR −3 −112 | 39.5 o−112 / u−108 | −162 +136 | — | Fav flipped · CAR −3 | No deck | |
Final Fox |  CHI31 | @ |  ATL23 | CHI −1.5 −108 | 51.5 o−105 / u−115 | −118 −102 | — | Moved 1.5 → ATL | No deck | |
Final Fox |  NO34 | @ |  NYG27 | NO −1.5 +105 | 46.5 o−105 / u−115 | −108 −112 | — | Fav flipped · NO −1.5 | No deck | |
Final CBS |  NYJ19 | @ |  NE26 | NE −7.5 −108 | 43.5 o−102 / u−118 | +275 −345 | — | Moved 2 → NYJ | No deck | |
Final CBS |  PIT26 | @ |  TB19 | PIT −2.5 −108 | 38.5 o−108 / u−112 | −142 +120 | — | Fav flipped · PIT −2.5 | No deck | |
Final Fox |  TEN26 | @ |  IND20 | IND −6.5 −112 | 43.5 o−110 / u−110 | +235 −290 | — | Moved 3 → IND | No deck | |
Final Fox |  ARI18 | @ |  LAR16 | LAR −12.5 −115 | 51.5 o−105 / u−115 | +500 −700 | — | Total ▲ 5 · 51.5 | No deck | |
Final CBS |  BUF33 | @ |  LV30 | BUF −5.5 −108 | 53.5 o−112 / u−108 | −238 +195 | — | Total ▲ 6 · 53.5 | No deck | |
Final CBS |  LAC6 | @ |  KC22 | KC −7.5 −108 | 41.5 o−112 / u−108 | +350 −455 | — | Through the 3 · KC −7.5 | No deck | |
Final NBC |  DAL13 | @ |  GB23 | DAL −1.5 −102 | 54.5 o−105 / u−115 | −115 −105 | — | Fav flipped · DAL −1.5 | No deck | |
Final ESPN/ABC |  WSH17 | @ |  SF23 | SF −7.5 −102 | 51.5 o−115 / u−105 | +310 −395 | — | Through the 7 · SF −7.5 | No deck |
Panthers vs Packers
Full matchup breakdown: the line, form, trends tested against luck, injuries and the model.
Read Full ResearchThe week's trends appear here once its matchup research is up.
Posted Wed, Oct 14, 9:31 PM PT · 14 games · 7 props · all final · Free to read
Nothing here is graded above C+ on a side, two games get no side at all, and the Best Bet is a total. Three quarterback situations are genuinely unresolved as of Wednesday night: Chicago have not named a starter, Lamar Jackson did not practice, and Baker Mayfield is doubtful. Each is flagged on its game — re-check them Sunday morning before you do anything.
Bills @ Raiders · Sun 4:25 PM ET
over 53.5
Of the ten games Buffalo and Las Vegas have played, the seven not against the Chargers or Miami all cleared 55 points, and both defences give up a touchdown on roughly a third of the drives they face.
Final · BUF 33, LV 30
During game week, before kickoff. The card goes up with every game of the week: a side against the spread and a moneyline call, each with a conviction grade from F to A+, plus one Best Bet and a slate of player props. The DraftKings number at posting time is shown for context.
The research behind it. Members see the card before kickoff; the matchup decks and briefs carry the research behind every side: trends tested against luck, the sample sizes, and the evidence for and against.
Analysis and entertainment, not betting advice and never a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
This week's research at a glance. Each deck carries the evidence for and against, with its sample size.
NFL WEEK 7 PREDICTIONS & BEST BETS
NFL · Oct 21
Seattle Seahawks @ Denver Broncos
Final · SEA 14, DEN 17 · DK SEA -2.5 · O/U 40.5
Our score: SEA 25, DEN 22
STAT: Seattle's five games have averaged 47.8 total points, against a posted total of 40.5. No side here — our projection lands Seattle by three on a 2.5-point line, which is not an edge, and they are 1-2-2 against the number while favoured in all five. Heads up on the starter: our schedule table lists Drew Lock, but Sam Darnold has taken every Seattle attempt since Week 3 and ESPN has him as the passing leader tonight. Confirm the inactives before kickoff.
Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Final · HOU 34, JAX 31 · DK JAX -2.5 · O/U 42.5
Our score: HOU 17, JAX 23
STAT: Jacksonville have allowed 14.0 points a game through five weeks, the fewest in the league. Wembley is a neutral site, but the Jaguars played at Tottenham in Week 5 and stayed in England while Houston travel. The under is the stronger half: both run defences are stingy, Jacksonville 2.93 yards a carry and Houston 3.32. Against it — Houston's 1-4 is flattering to their opponents, with three losses by five, two and four.
Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons
Final · CHI 31, ATL 23 · DK CHI -1.5 · O/U 50.5
Our score: CHI 20, ATL 26
STAT: Chicago have scored 19.0 points a game in the three weeks Caleb Williams has not played. That number is the whole pick, and it may not survive the week — Williams practised in full Wednesday and is questionable with a hamstring, while Bagent and Keenum are both active and Ben Johnson has named nobody. If Williams is cleared Friday, this side is void. Michael Penix Jr. is through his rib issue and practised fully.
Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns
Final · BAL 10, CLE 13 · DK BAL -5.5 · O/U 42.5
Our score: BAL 23, CLE 20
STAT: Baltimore's largest margin of victory in their last four games is seven points. We are buying a number, not a team — Cleveland are 28th in scoring at 18.6 a game and their backfield is down to a questionable Quinshon Judkins. Lamar Jackson did not practise at all Wednesday; if he sits, 5.5 is too many for a division road team, and if he is full by Friday this gets thinner. Re-check Sunday.
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts
Final · TEN 26, IND 20 · DK IND -7 · O/U 44.5
Our score: TEN 17, IND 23
STAT: Tennessee's games have averaged 33.4 total points, the lowest mark of all 32 teams. The total is the pick; the side is only a lean, resting on Indianapolis having won by more than seven exactly once in five games while three of Tennessee's losses were by six or fewer. Tennessee are 0-5 and lost 26-3 at home last week, so this is about the number, not the team.
NY Jets @ New England Patriots
Final · NYJ 19, NE 26 · DK NE -7.5 · O/U 43.5
Our score: NYJ 18, NE 23
STAT: Geno Smith has thrown 147 passes without an interception through five weeks. These are the fourth and fifth stingiest scoring defences in the league, and the Jets have not scored more than 24 in any game. Against it: New England are 2-0 at home by 17 and 28, and their last two games produced 55 and 62 points. Both New England tackles, Campbell and Moses, are questionable.
New Orleans Saints @ NY Giants
Final · NO 34, NYG 27 · DK NO -1.5 · O/U 45.5
Our score: NO 20, NYG 24
STAT: New Orleans have 11 giveaways in five games, tied for the second most in the league. The Giants have covered three straight, but against Tennessee, Arizona and a tie in Washington — thin opposition, which is why this is C+ and not better. Chris Olave did not practise Wednesday with an illness and is 41% of the Saints' passing yardage; if he sits, the pick gets better.
Carolina Panthers @ Philadelphia Eagles
Final · CAR 25, PHI 14 · DK CAR -1.5 · O/U 39.5
Our score: CAR 24, PHI 17
STAT: Philadelphia are scoring 18.4 points a game, 29th of 32, and have lost three straight. This is the thinnest side on the card and graded below the Giants for a reason: Carolina are starting neither regular tackle, with Ekwonu and Moton both out. Saquon Barkley is questionable with a hamstring after missing Week 5 and DeVonta Smith is questionable too.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Final · PIT 26, TB 19 · DK PIT -2.5 · O/U 39.5
Our score: PIT 19, TB 20
STAT: Tampa Bay have allowed 3.28 yards a carry, second lowest in the league. Honest caveat on that number — it was earned against Cleveland, Minnesota, Green Bay and Dallas, and only Dallas score above average. Baker Mayfield is doubtful and was to try throwing Wednesday for the first time since Week 3; Mayfield starting changes this materially, so re-check the inactives. Pittsburgh's last three games produced 57, 51 and 56 points, which is the live argument against the under.
Arizona Cardinals @ LA Rams
Final · ARI 18, LAR 16 · DK LAR -12.5 · O/U 51.5
Our score: ARI 24, LAR 31
STAT: Arizona's last three games have averaged 64.0 total points, against closing totals of 48.5, 44.5 and 55.5. The Rams' last three were each decided by four points or fewer. The side is thin and we are saying so — Arizona are 1-4 and allow a league-worst 32.4 a game, so 12.5 is not a crazy number; the total is the half worth having.
LA Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs
Final · LAC 6, KC 22 · DK KC -8.5 · O/U 42.5
Our score: LAC 14, KC 27
STAT: the Chargers have scored a touchdown on 9 of 60 offensive drives this season, 15.0%. The counter we could not argue away: Los Angeles' five losses are by 12, 12, 8, 7 and 6 — they have not been beaten by more than twelve all year.
Buffalo Bills @ Las Vegas Raiders
Final · BUF 33, LV 30 · DK BUF -5.5 · O/U 53.5
Our score: BUF 31, LV 27
STAT: Buffalo's games have produced 61.0 combined points apiece, second most in the league. Of the ten games these two have played, the seven that did not involve the Chargers or Miami — the league's two lowest-scoring offences — all cleared 55 points and all went over. The total is the play and the side is a lean; split the stake that way.
Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers
Final · DAL 13, GB 23 · DK GB -1.5 · O/U 53.5
Our score: DAL 26, GB 23
STAT: Green Bay are rushing for 60.4 yards a game, fewest of all 32 teams. The under is the pick we actually like; the side is close to a coin flip. The conflict we cannot resolve honestly: Green Bay's strong pass numbers were earned with Parsons and Hargrave on the field, so "gutted front" and "stingy defence" are both true right now. Dallas have allowed 24 or more in each of their last three.
Washington Commanders @ San Francisco 49ers
Final · WSH 17, SF 23 · DK SF -7.5 · O/U 50.5
Our score: WSH 22, SF 30
STAT: Washington have allowed at least 24 points in all five games this season. No side: San Francisco are the better team and the raw numbers say they cover 7.5 comfortably, while the dog case rests on their last three wins coming by six, ten and three. Backup quarterback Marcus Mariota is doubtful with an MCL sprain, so if Jayden Daniels' elbow flares in warmups Washington are down to Athan Kaliakmanis.
Streaks that apply to a game on this slate. Written fresh every week — a trend only appears here while the spot is right for it.
Seattle have gone over the total in three straight
SEA @ DEN64, 53 and 61 points in weeks 3 to 5
Jacksonville have gone under in four straight, none of the four clearing 42 points
HOU @ JAX
Chicago have finished under the closing total in four straight
CHI @ ATL
Cleveland's last four games were all decided by five points or fewer, and Baltimore's last four by seven or fewer
BAL @ CLE
Tennessee have scored 20 points or fewer in all five games
TEN @ IND10, 20, 7, 18, 3
the Jets have scored 24 or fewer in all five games
NYJ @ NE23, 17, 24, 12, 17
the Giants have covered three straight
NO @ NYG
Philadelphia have lost three straight and are 1-4 against the spread
CAR @ PHI
Tampa Bay have lost three straight at home, each by seven or fewer, scoring 19, 16 and 14
PIT @ TB
the Rams' last three games were each decided by four points or fewer
ARI @ LAR
the Chargers have lost eight straight, back to Week 17 of last season
LAC @ KC
Dallas have allowed 24 or more in each of their last three
DAL @ GB
Washington have allowed at least 24 points in all five games
WSH @ SF
Jaxon Smith-Njigba · Rec Yds Over 89.5(-110)
122, 155, 128, 76 and 102 by week; Denver are without Surtain and Hufanga
Final · 134 Rec Yds
Bijan Robinson · Rush Yds Over 72.5(-110)
20.4 carries a game, never fewer than 16, at 116.0 rushing yards
Final · 61 Rush Yds
Derrick Henry · Rush Yds Over 72.5(-110)
22.6 carries a game at 95.2 yards, seven rushing scores in five games
Final · 58 Rush Yds
Jonathan Taylor · Rush Yds Over 69.5(-110)
85.6% of Indianapolis' running-back carries, 20.2 a game
Final · 94 Rush Yds
Garrett Wilson · Receptions Over 5.5(-110)
42 targets, 21 more than any other Jet, 6.2 catches a game
Final · 4 Receptions
Trey McBride · Receptions Over 6.5(-110)
9, 8, 9, 7 and 9 catches; he has not finished a game under seven
Final · 7 Receptions
Matthew Stafford · Pass Yds Over 274.5(-110)
55, 51 and 54 attempts the last three weeks for 390, 317 and 383
Final · 222 Pass Yds
Tapp's Best Bet · NFL
Arizona Cardinals@Los Angeles Rams· Sun, Oct 18, 4:05 PM ET
Over 51.5 (-115)-1151u
✗ Lost-1uARI 18 @ LAR 16 (34)
Tapp's Edge · Justin Tapp's card, every play logged before kickoff.
