NFL RESEARCH

Our score: TB 21, DAL 30

STAT: Dallas games have gone over in 10 straight and in 37 of their last 55 since 2023 — a 68.5% over rate against a 50.6% league rate, p = 0.009, the only split on this entire board that survives correction for how many were searched. The Cowboys rank 32nd in non-garbage defensive EPA at 0.148, allow 4.49 yards a carry, and their games have averaged 58.5 points this season against a 47.5 total under a closed roof. The side moved against us from -10 on Monday to -8.5, so the points drop to a D: Baker Mayfield is out with a thumb injury, Jalon Daniels starts, and Tampa Bay's offense ranks 31st at -0.186 EPA while taking sacks on 10.1% of dropbacks.

Our score: PHI 17, JAX 23

STAT: Jacksonville's defense ranks 2nd in non-garbage EPA at -0.119 and allows 3.2 yards a carry and 13.2 points a game, which is why this card had Jacksonville -4.5 on Monday. The number has since moved two and a half points through the key number to -7, and at -7 the side flips to the points: Philadelphia's 0-4 against the spread came at closing prices of -6, -7 and -3.5 that are gone now, the Eagles are 6-1 ATS as a road underdog since 2023 (p = 0.064, noise, but it fits this spot), and the brief's search of 36 splits found no real side angle. Saquon Barkley (hamstring), DeVonta Smith (hamstring) and Dallas Goedert (knee) are all questionable — re-check Sunday morning, and if two of the three sit, pass the side. The under rests on Jacksonville's 13.2 points allowed a game and three straight unders, not on a trend; both teams' totals records are noise (p = 0.686 and 1.0).

Our score: CHI 24, GB 20

STAT: Green Bay has not covered in seven straight, has not scored 24 in five straight, and has gone six straight games without a rushing touchdown. Chicago's defense ranks 5th in non-garbage EPA at -0.099 and its offense 9th at 0.101, against a Packers defense ranked 19th. Caleb Williams is out (hamstring, week-to-week) and Ben Johnson has named Tyson Bagent the starter after his 25-of-34, 268-yard Week 4 — a road favorite in a division game at Lambeau resting on a backup is a C+ and nothing more. No total: the Mind's line says 51.5 against a 45.5 market, a six-point gap from a model that is a coin flip against the close.

Our score: HOU 20, TEN 14

STAT: Houston is 0-4 against the spread with five straight non-covers, and the market has moved this from -6.5 on Monday through the key number to -7.5 — so the side flips to the points. Tennessee's offense is the worst in the league, 32nd at -0.199 EPA and 13.8 points a game, which is why this is only a C: the Titans are 3-15 ATS in division games since 2023 (p = 0.008, the smallest p in the brief's search; it corrects to 0.108 and spans three head coaches). The total dropped two points to 37.5, so the under falls from a B to a C: Houston games have gone under 34 of 55 since 2023 (p = 0.056) and Tennessee's games average 34.5 points, but Houston's own games average 48.2 this season. Forecast 67% chance of rain and 17 mph gusts.

Our score: CIN 21, MIA 16

STAT: Miami scores 11.5 points a game with Malik Willis at quarterback and ran 37 plays in Week 4. This card took +7 on Monday; the line has since moved to -6.5 and the total up a point to 42.5, so the side loses the key number and drops to a D. Ja'Marr Chase is still in the concussion protocol and Tee Higgins (groin) did not practice Wednesday — both questionable, re-check Sunday morning, and if both play, pass the side. The under is a C: the Bengals' 32-23 over record since 2023 is noise (p = 0.283), so the lean rests on Miami's 11.5 a game and 36.8-point game average, against a Cincinnati offense ranked 6th facing a defense ranked 30th.

Our score: LV 17, NE 23

STAT: New England's defense ranks 8th in non-garbage EPA at -0.067, while Las Vegas allows 4.85 yards a carry and runs for 3.44. This is one of the five games where the brief's search of 36 side splits found nothing at all — the lowest p-value was 0.105 — so it is a ratings call and graded as one. Brock Bowers (knee) is questionable after 13 and 11 targets in his two games.

Our score: CLE 20, NYJ 17

STAT: The Jets ran 32 plays with 18 dropbacks in Week 4, Breece Hall (quadriceps) and guard Dylan Parham (knee) are doubtful, and New York is 2-7 against the spread as a favorite of 0.5-3 since 2023 (p = 0.094). Cleveland is 3-1 with the 11th-ranked defense at -0.046 EPA, and the Mind's line makes Cleveland a 2.5-point favorite — a four-point gap that is a reason to read on, not the reason to act. What keeps this at a B: Cleveland is 7-19 against the spread on the road since 2023 (p = 0.029, the smallest p in the search, corrected to 1.0), runs for 3.3 yards a carry, and Mason Graham (knee) is doubtful.

Our score: IND 23, PIT 21

STAT: Pittsburgh's net efficiency ranks 31st — 28th on offense at -0.136, 24th on defense at 0.088 — and the Mind's line makes this a pick'em, so the 2.5 points are the whole case. The brief flagged the one side split on the entire board that survives correction, Pittsburgh 10-0 against the spread at home in division games since 2023 (p = 0.001, corrected 0.036), and it does not apply: this is not a division game and it spans two head coaches. Pittsburgh's real edges are 10 days of rest to Indianapolis's 7 and Jaylen Warren's 127 and 93 rushing yards the last two weeks on 17 carries each against a defense allowing 4.56 a carry. Jamel Dean is doubtful; Keenan Allen and Michael Pittman Jr. are questionable. No total: Colts games average 51.5, Steelers games 41.0, and there is a 75% chance of rain.

Our score: NYG 23, WSH 20

STAT: Washington allows 30.5 points a game and ranks 24th on offense at a 36.0% success rate, and the Giants are 16-11 straight up and 16-11 against the spread at Washington in this series. Jayden Daniels practiced fully Wednesday and is off the injury report, which is why the line moved from -3 to -3.5; Terry McLaurin (hamstring) did not practice and Stefon Diggs is questionable. We now get 3.5 instead of 3, so the grade holds at C+ with Daniels back rather than improving. This is one of the five no-side-angle games (lowest p 0.108), and the Mind's line has New York -1.5. Re-check McLaurin Sunday morning.

Our score: DEN 20, LAC 19

STAT: Denver scores 18.5 points a game and the Chargers 16.8 — the two lowest-scoring offenses meeting anywhere on this card — against a 42.5 total in a dome, and Chargers games have gone under 34 of 55 since 2023, a 38.2% over rate, p = 0.079. Pat Surtain II is doubtful and Riley Moss (ribs) questionable on a Denver defense already ranked 27th at 0.103 EPA, and the Mind's line makes the Chargers a one-point favorite. The case against is the Chargers themselves: 0-4, six straight losses, five straight non-covers, Rashawn Slater out four to six weeks with a high-ankle sprain, Ladd McConkey and Joe Alt questionable. No side angle in the brief's search (lowest p 0.216).

Our score: DET 27, ARI 24

STAT: Detroit is 0-3-1 against the spread with the 31st-ranked defense in non-garbage EPA at 0.143, and the Mind's line makes them only a 1.5-point favorite against a market that has moved from -4.5 to -5.5 since Monday. The extra point helps the dog, but this is a no-side-angle game (lowest p 0.05, corrected 1.0), so the gap is the whole argument and it is a weak one; Detroit is 13-4 against the spread as a road favorite since 2023, which is the split that caps this at a C. No total despite Detroit being 4-0 to the over at 61.5 points a game: 54.5 is the highest number on the board, the projection sits below it at 53, and Arizona's 4.1% explosive-play rate is the lowest in the league.

Our score: SF 24, SEA 23

STAT: San Francisco has not allowed a sack on 122 dropbacks this season — the cleanest available answer to a Seattle defense ranked 1st in non-garbage EPA at -0.245 that sacks on 7.4% of dropbacks and allows 3.31 yards a carry. The 49ers are 4-0 with the 2nd-ranked offense at 0.254 EPA and a 56.9% success rate, and they are 5-3 straight up and against the spread in Seattle since 2018. Seattle has won seven straight at home, owns the best defense in the league, and the 49ers are 2-8 against the spread as an underdog since 2023 (p = 0.11), which is exactly why this is a C+ and not a B. The total came down from 47.5 to 45.5 and is still a pass.

Our score: BAL 17, ATL 24

STAT: Lamar Jackson (ankle) did not practice Wednesday and Tyler Huntley took the first-team reps, which is why this line has flipped from Baltimore -3.5 on Monday to Atlanta -3.5 now — a seven-point swing. Monday's pick here was Atlanta +3.5; the Falcons stay the pick at -3.5 because the case was always Atlanta's defense: 4th in non-garbage EPA at -0.111, allowing 2.94 yards a carry, at home under a closed roof, while Atlanta runs for 5.28 a carry and Bijan Robinson has 194 and 145 rushing yards the last two weeks. It is only a C because the brief's search found no side angle (lowest p 0.093), Atlanta is 1-4 against the spread as a 3.5-6.5 home favorite since 2023, and if Jackson is somehow active this number is wrong by a touchdown — re-check Sunday morning and pass both markets if he starts. Zay Flowers (foot) and Ronnie Stanley (toe) are questionable too.

Our score: BUF 23, LAR 27

STAT: The Rams allow 3.68 yards a carry and rank 3rd in non-garbage defensive EPA at -0.113, and they run for 5.05 yards a carry, the best figure in the league, against a Buffalo defense ranked 23rd. The Mind's line has the Rams at -6.5 against a -3 market, a reason to read on rather than an edge. The line moved from -2.5 on Monday to -3, so the side drops a notch to a C on the key number; the moneyline is the cleaner expression of "the better team wins" and stays at C+. Buffalo scoring 31.8 points a game with a 12.0% explosive rate is the case against, and so is the series: Buffalo is 5-2 against the spread in it, 3-1 in Los Angeles, and the last meeting had 86 points.