We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Our 1 highest-conviction calls out of 15 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
LV
NE
16
28
Offense
NE
Defense
NE
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Drake Maye
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
Drake Maye◄
0.24 EPA/att
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Tre Tucker
0.18 EPA/tgt
A.J. Brown◄
0.22 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers
0.22 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.35 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Average◄
8.7% sack rate
Adam Butler◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Thomas Booker IV
no 2025 data
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
Christian Elliss
0.3 impact/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III◄
0.4 cover/gm
Isaiah Pola-Mao◄
0.5 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
0.24 EPA/att
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Tre Tucker
0.18 EPA/tgt
A.J. Brown◄
0.22 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers
0.22 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.35 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Average◄
8.7% sack rate
Adam Butler◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Thomas Booker IV
no 2025 data
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
Christian Elliss
0.3 impact/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III◄
0.4 cover/gm
Isaiah Pola-Mao◄
0.5 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Sam Darnold
0.11 EPA/att
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Zach Charbonnet
-0.00 EPA/tch
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.52 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner
0.32 EPA/tgt
Average
4.5% sack rate
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Alfred Collins
0.2 disrupt/gm
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
C.J. West
no 2025 data
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Dre Greenlaw
0.4 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
David Montgomery◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Tommy Togiai
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Amani Hooker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Josh Allen
0.11 EPA/att
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
James Cook III
0.04 EPA/tch
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.57 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Good
7.5% sack rate
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
T.J. Sanders◄
no 2025 data
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Christian Benford
0.3 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson◄
0.4 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Joe Burrow
0.08 EPA/att
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Ja'Marr Chase◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.33 EPA/tgt
Good
5.3% sack rate
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Kenneth Grant
0.2 disrupt/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Chop Robinson◄
no 2025 data
Demetrius Knight Jr.
0.8 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Dax Hill◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jalen Hurts◄
0.05 EPA/att
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Bhayshul Tuten◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert
0.35 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.6% sack rate
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Average◄
no data
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun
0.9 impact/gm
Quinyon Mitchell
0.7 cover/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Kyler Murray◄
0.02 EPA/att
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Travis Etienne Jr.◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
11.0% sack rate
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Caleb Banks◄
no 2025 data
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Cameron Jordan
no 2025 data
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Kaden Elliss
1.0 impact/gm
Isaiah Rodgers
0.2 cover/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Caleb Williams
0.06 EPA/att
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Josh Jacobs
-0.01 EPA/tch
Rome Odunze
0.17 EPA/tgt
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland
0.47 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.61 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Average
5.6% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Javon Hargrave
0.4 disrupt/gm
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Tyrique Stevenson
0.5 cover/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dillon Thieneman
no 2025 data
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Dak Prescott◄
0.14 EPA/att
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb◄
0.20 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson◄
0.16 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Elijah Roberts
0.2 press/gm
Quinnen Williams◄
no 2025 data
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Dee Winters
0.8 impact/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Cobie Durant◄
0.5 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Lamar Jackson◄
0.04 EPA/att
Tua Tagovailoa
0.03 EPA/att
Derrick Henry
0.02 EPA/tch
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Zay Flowers◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Drake London
0.17 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Good
9.6% sack rate
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Da'Shawn Hand
no 2025 data
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Brandon Dorlus◄
0.8 press/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Divine Deablo◄
0.7 impact/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Amon-Ra St. Brown
0.28 EPA/tgt
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride
0.38 EPA/tgt
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Alim McNeill
0.3 disrupt/gm
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Derrick Barnes◄
0.7 impact/gm
Zaven Collins
0.4 impact/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Kerby Joseph◄
0.6 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Breece Hall◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Garrett Wilson◄
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Kenyon Sadiq◄
no 2025 data
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Bad◄
10.8% sack rate
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jared Verse
0.9 press/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Carson Schwesinger
0.9 impact/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Tyson Campbell
0.7 cover/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Minkah Fitzpatrick◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Jaylen Warren
0.03 EPA/tch
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
DK Metcalf
0.26 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Pat Freiermuth◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Good
5.3% sack rate
Grover Stewart◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Yahya Black
no 2025 data
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Payton Wilson◄
0.7 impact/gm
Sauce Gardner◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jaxson Dart◄
0.01 EPA/att
Jayden Daniels
-0.02 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Terry McLaurin◄
0.35 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo◄
0.13 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Tim Settle◄
no 2025 data
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Dru Phillips
0.6 cover/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Omarion Hampton
-0.01 EPA/tch
Courtland Sutton◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Oronde Gadsden◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Bad
9.5% sack rate
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Dalvin Tomlinson
no 2025 data
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Jonathon Cooper◄
0.8 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga
0.7 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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