Data. Trends. Matchups. Insights.
In-depth research on NFL games: spreads, totals, trends tested against luck, injuries, matchup breakdowns and the crew's leans, all in one place. Pick a week, then a game.
Each team's season: schedule and results, record against the spread, injuries and history.
| Away | @ | Home | Spread | Total | Moneyline | Top Trend | Mind Alert | Status | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Final Prime Video |  PIT24 | @ |  CLE27 | PIT −2.5 −120 | 38.5 o−105 / u−115 | −148 +124 | — | Division game | No deck | |
Final NFL Net |  IND30 | @ |  WSH13 | IND −4.5 −118 | 46.5 o−108 / u−112 | −230 +190 | — | — | No deck | |
Final CBS |  ARI24 | @ |  NYG36 | ARI −2.5 −110 | 44.5 o−105 / u−115 | −135 +114 | — | — | No deck | |
Final Fox |  DAL34 | @ |  HOU30 | HOU −3 −105 | 48.5 o−112 / u−108 | +130 −155 | — | — | No deck | |
Final Fox |  GB17 | @ |  TB14 | GB −3 −105 | 38.5 o−115 / u−105 | −155 +130 | — | Rest edge · GB +3 days | No deck | |
Final CBS |  JAX22 | @ |  CIN17 | CIN −2.5 −118 | 51.5 o−110 / u−110 | +124 −148 | — | — | No deck | |
Final Fox |  LAR24 | @ |  PHI20 | LAR −3.5 −120 | 42.5 o−120 / u+100 | −198 +164 | — | — | No deck | |
Final CBS |  NE29 | @ |  BUF26 | BUF −7 −110 | 49.5 o−108 / u−112 | +275 −345 | — | Division game | No deck | |
Final Fox |  NYJ12 | @ |  CHI23 | CHI −3.5 −110 | 43.5 o−110 / u−110 | +160 −192 | — | — | No deck | |
Final CBS |  TEN18 | @ |  BAL24 | BAL −11.5 −110 | 42.5 o−105 / u−115 | +550 −800 | — | — | No deck | |
Final Fox |  MIA10 | @ |  MIN15 | MIN −10 −105 | 38.5 o−108 / u−112 | +400 −535 | — | — | No deck | |
Final CBS |  DEN14 | @ |  SF24 | SF −3 −105 | 48.5 o−105 / u−115 | +140 −166 | — | — | No deck | |
Final CBS |  KC30 | @ |  LV27 | KC −4.5 −120 | 47.5 o−105 / u−115 | −225 +185 | — | Division game | No deck | |
Final CBS |  LAC23 | @ |  SEA30 | SEA −7 −108 | 42.5 o−118 / u−102 | +275 −345 | — | — | No deck | |
Final NBC |  DET26 | @ |  CAR32 | DET −4.5 −105 | 52.5 o−105 / u−115 | −225 +185 | — | Primetime · SNF | No deck | |
Final ESPN |  ATL45 | @ |  NO24 | NO −1.5 +100 | 47.5 o−112 / u−108 | −105 −115 | — | Total ▲ 2 · 47.5 | No deck |
Panthers vs Packers
Full matchup breakdown: the line, form, trends tested against luck, injuries and the model.
Read Full ResearchThe week's trends appear here once its matchup research is up.
Posted Wed, Sep 30, 7:55 PM PT · 16 games · 4 props · all final · Free to read
The Best Bet this week is a prop, and the spread grades are smaller across the board. Week 4 history backs the same caution — since 2010, home favorites cover just 45% in this week while teams coming off an 0-3 start cover 62% as underdogs. Five quarterback situations are still unsettled as of Wednesday night: Lamar Jackson and Jayden Daniels are questionable, Caleb Williams is doubtful, and Baker Mayfield is already ruled out. Every note below opens with the number that drives the pick. Fades we are avoiding despite great 2025 numbers: J.K. Dobbins over 59.5 rushing (90% last year but 36, 36 and 49 this year in a committee), Matthew Golden under 55.5 receiving (he is the WR1 now with Jayden Reed on injured reserve) and Bhayshul Tuten under 54.5 rushing (he is the lead back now).
Rams @ Eagles · Sun 1:00 PM ET
Kyren Williams over 57.5 Rush Yds
He has cleared 57.5 rushing yards in 14 of 17 games with a 72-yard median, and ran for 85 and 88 the last two weeks against a Philadelphia defense that allows 4.16 yards a carry.
Final · 80 Rush Yds
During game week, before kickoff. The card goes up with every game of the week: a side against the spread and a moneyline call, each with a conviction grade from F to A+, plus one Best Bet and a slate of player props. The DraftKings number at posting time is shown for context.
The research behind it. Members see the card before kickoff; the matchup decks and briefs carry the research behind every side: trends tested against luck, the sample sizes, and the evidence for and against.
Analysis and entertainment, not betting advice and never a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
This week's research at a glance. Each deck carries the evidence for and against, with its sample size.
NFL WEEK 7 PREDICTIONS & BEST BETS
NFL · Oct 21
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns
Final · PIT 24, CLE 27 · DK PIT -2.5 · O/U 38.5
Our score: PIT 19, CLE 16
STAT: Pittsburgh's offense ranks 30th in EPA per play with zero rushing touchdowns, and Cleveland is missing both starting interior linemen in Teven Jenkins and Elgton Jenkins. This is the lowest total on the board for a reason, and the side is close to a coin flip, which is why the under carries the grade and the spread does not.
Indianapolis Colts @ Washington Commanders
Final · IND 30, WSH 13 · DK IND -3.5 · O/U 47.5
Our score: IND 24, WSH 23
STAT: Indianapolis has the second-worst defense in the league by EPA and allows 8.9 yards per pass attempt, third-most, so laying 3.5 on a neutral field is steep. The grade is a D because Jayden Daniels is questionable; Marcus Mariota's passing line of 213.5 tells you the market is not sure either. Re-check Sunday morning.
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills
Final · NE 29, BUF 26 · DK BUF -6.5 · O/U 48.5
Our score: NE 17, BUF 30
STAT: New England has scored a touchdown on one of seven red-zone trips, 14%, the worst rate in football, and A.J. Brown is on injured reserve. Buffalo punts on 16.1% of drives, the lowest rate in the league, and has eight rushing touchdowns already. The only thing holding this to a B is that Week 4 home favorites cover 45%.
NY Jets @ Chicago Bears
Final · NYJ 12, CHI 23 · DK CHI -3.5 · O/U 43.5
Our score: NYJ 17, CHI 24
STAT: Chicago leads the league at 6.07 yards per carry, and Case Keenum threw for 247 in his first start since 2023 while winning by 20. The Jets average 3.4 yards a carry, 31st, and Breece Hall is doubtful. Laying 3.5 with a backup quarterback is cheaper than it should be.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals
Final · JAX 22, CIN 17 · DK CIN -2.5 · O/U 51.5
Our score: JAX 24, CIN 20
STAT: Jacksonville allows 12.0 points per game, fewest in the league, and has the best pass defense by EPA at -0.166. They rate as the best team in the vault's power ratings and they are getting points. The 51.5 total feels built for a Cincinnati offense that has to go through that secondary.
Arizona Cardinals @ NY Giants
Final · ARI 24, NYG 36 · DK ARI -2.5 · O/U 44.5
Our score: ARI 21, NYG 20
STAT: Arizona has a 3.1% explosive-play rate, the worst in the league, and allows 9.26 yards per pass attempt, also the worst. That is a bad team laying points on the road. Jameis Winston starts with Jaxson Dart on injured reserve, which caps the grade.
LA Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles
Final · LAR 24, PHI 20 · DK LAR -3 · O/U 43.5
Our score: LAR 24, PHI 20
STAT: Philadelphia is the only team in the NFL without a takeaway and just lost 27-7 at home to a backup quarterback, with Dallas Goedert doubtful again. The Rams allow 5.22 yards per pass attempt, second-fewest in the league. The market still has not caught up to how poorly the Eagles are playing.
Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Final · GB 17, TB 14 · DK GB -3.5 · O/U 38.5
Our score: GB 21, TB 16
STAT: Baker Mayfield is out, and Tampa Bay already had the worst offense in the league by EPA while being sacked on 11.6% of dropbacks. Green Bay is not the counterweight you would want, though: they are last in rushing EPA at 3.04 yards a carry and lead the league in penalty yards, which is why this is only a C+.
Tennessee Titans @ Baltimore Ravens
Final · TEN 18, BAL 24 · DK BAL -11.5 · O/U 42.5
Our score: TEN 17, BAL 24
STAT: Baltimore is 6-11 straight up without Lamar Jackson since 2019, and he is questionable. Even with him they are 2-1 with a point differential of just +4.7, and Week 4 underdogs coming off an 0-3 start are 30-18 against the spread since 2010. If Jackson is ruled out this becomes the best number on the board; if he plays a full game, cut the size.
Dallas Cowboys @ Houston Texans
Final · DAL 34, HOU 30 · DK HOU -3 · O/U 48.5
Our score: DAL 20, HOU 26
STAT: Dallas allows opponents to convert 60.6% of third downs, the worst rate in the league, and has the worst defense by EPA with zero interceptions. They are also down Tyler Smith, Jalen Thompson, P.J. Locke and Jonathan Bullard with Cobie Durant doubtful. Houston is 0-3 but has 11 sacks and the second-best sack rate in football.
Miami Dolphins @ Minnesota Vikings
Final · MIA 10, MIN 15 · DK MIN -10.5 · O/U 38.5
Our score: MIA 10, MIN 23
STAT: Minnesota has the best defense in the league by EPA, the most sacks with 14, the best third-down defense at 25% and the best red-zone defense at 11%. Miami is 0-3 with a league-worst -16.7 point differential and De'Von Achane on injured reserve. The catch is that Minnesota's offense ranks dead last in success rate, which is why a 10.5-point lay only grades C+.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders
Final · KC 30, LV 27 · DK KC -4.5 · O/U 47.5
Our score: KC 27, LV 23
STAT: Las Vegas is 3-0 with three takeaways a game, the most in the league, and the fewest penalty yards at 30 per game. Kansas City is 27-45 against the spread as a favorite of 6.5 or more since 2015 but this is only 4.5, in a division game, against a team playing clean football. Low conviction on a good team.
Denver Broncos @ San Francisco 49ers
Final · DEN 14, SF 24 · DK SF -3 · O/U 47.5
Our score: DEN 21, SF 27
STAT: San Francisco has scored touchdowns on 10 of 11 red-zone trips and has not allowed a sack all season, with the best offense in the league by EPA. Nick Bosa is out, which matters against a Denver team that is 2-1, but laying a field goal with the most efficient offense in football is still the right side.
LA Chargers @ Seattle Seahawks
Final · LAC 23, SEA 30 · DK SEA -7 · O/U 42.5
Our score: LAC 14, SEA 24
STAT: Seattle allows 4.96 yards per pass attempt, the best mark in the league, against a Chargers team that is 0-3 with the second-worst offense by EPA and the second-worst rushing EPA. Seattle is only 14-16 against the spread as a home favorite of seven or more since 2015, which keeps this from grading higher.
Detroit Lions @ Carolina Panthers
Final · DET 26, CAR 32 · DK DET -3.5 · O/U 51.5
Our score: DET 31, CAR 24
STAT: Detroit's games are the highest-scoring in the league, with the Lions scoring 31.0 and allowing 31.7 per game. Carolina lets opponents score touchdowns on 85.7% of red-zone trips, the worst rate in football. The total is already the highest on the board, which is why the over is only a C.
Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints
Final · ATL 45, NO 24 · DK NO -2.5 · O/U 47.5
Our score: ATL 20, NO 24
STAT: Atlanta's average pass travels 4.9 yards downfield, the shortest in the league, and they have thrown six interceptions, the most. New Orleans runs 73.3 plays a game, the most in the league, with the most no-huddle. Divisional games stay close, so the grade stays low.
Streaks that apply to a game on this slate. Written fresh every week — a trend only appears here while the spot is right for it.
NO 25 straight games without a 100-yard rusher, back to December 2024
ATL @ NOthey host Atlanta Monday
Five teams on this slate have gone 14 or more straight games without a 100-yard rusher: NO 25, ARI 22, JAX 17, CLE 15, DEN 14
TB have failed to cover 12 straight, hosting GB, who have failed to cover 7 straight
GB @ TBone of those breaks Sunday
LAC have lost 5 straight, failed to cover 5 straight, gone under 5 straight and have not scored 24 in 5, while SEA have won 6 straight at home
LAC @ SEAthe whole game is a pile-up
MIN have won 8 straight and covered 8 straight, both live hosting MIA, who have not scored 24 in 7 and have not had a 100-yard rusher in 7
MIA @ MIN
DAL have allowed 20+ in 10 straight and their games have gone over 9 straight
DAL @ HOUat Houston with a 48.5 total
Kyren Williams · Rush Yds Over 57.5(-110)
14 of 17 over this number in 2025, 85 and 88 the last two weeks, and Philadelphia allows 4.16 yards a carry
Final · 80 Rush Yds
Rome Odunze · Rec Yds Over 27.5(-110)
cleared it in 10 of 12 games in 2025 and has gone 52, 43 and 44 this season while playing 85% of snaps
Final · 94 Rec Yds
Jalen Hurts · Rush Yds Over 24.5(-110)
8 of 10 over in 2025 with a 36-yard median, and he just hit 25 with Dallas Goedert out again
Final · 18 Rush Yds
Jacoby Brissett · Pass Yds Over 233.5(-110)
10 of 12 over in 2025, with 277 and 280 in two of three starts this year, against a Giants defense allowing +0.221 EPA per dropback
Final · 166 Pass Yds
Tapp's Best Bet · NFL
Arizona Cardinals@Los Angeles Rams· Sun, Oct 18, 4:05 PM ET
Over 51.5 (-115)-1151u
✗ Lost-1uARI 18 @ LAR 16 (34)
Tapp's Edge · Justin Tapp's card, every play logged before kickoff.
