We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Our 2 highest-conviction calls out of 16 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
NYJ
CHI
19
30
Offense
CHI
Defense
CHI
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Caleb Williams◄
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
Caleb Williams◄
0.06 EPA/att
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Rome Odunze◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Kenyon Sadiq
no 2025 data
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Montez Sweat
0.9 press/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Devin Bush
0.9 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Tyrique Stevenson
0.5 cover/gm
Minkah Fitzpatrick◄
0.6 cover/gm
Dillon Thieneman
no 2025 data
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
$9.99/mo
Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
$29.99/mo
All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.
0.06 EPA/att
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Rome Odunze◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Kenyon Sadiq
no 2025 data
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Montez Sweat
0.9 press/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Devin Bush
0.9 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Tyrique Stevenson
0.5 cover/gm
Minkah Fitzpatrick◄
0.6 cover/gm
Dillon Thieneman
no 2025 data
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Lamar Jackson◄
0.04 EPA/att
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Zay Flowers◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm◄
0.05 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Travis Jones
0.7 disrupt/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Calais Campbell◄
0.7 press/gm
Cody Barton◄
0.7 impact/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Amani Hooker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Dak Prescott◄
0.14 EPA/att
C.J. Stroud
0.08 EPA/att
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
David Montgomery◄
0.01 EPA/tch
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Average
5.1% sack rate
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
Henry To'oTo'o
0.8 impact/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Jayden Daniels
-0.02 EPA/att
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
-0.02 EPA/tch
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Terry McLaurin
0.35 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo◄
0.13 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Good
7.3% sack rate
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Odafe Oweh◄
0.7 impact/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Nick Cross
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Omarion Hampton
-0.01 EPA/tch
Zach Charbonnet◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Oronde Gadsden
0.19 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Dalvin Tomlinson
no 2025 data
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Justin Jefferson◄
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.33 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Kenneth Grant
0.2 disrupt/gm
Caleb Banks◄
no 2025 data
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Eric Wilson
1.1 impact/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.◄
0.3 cover/gm
Isaiah Rodgers
0.2 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Jaxson Dart◄
0.01 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love◄
no 2025 data
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
8.3% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Josh Sweat◄
no 2025 data
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Zaven Collins
0.4 impact/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dru Phillips
0.6 cover/gm
Budda Baker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Kenneth Walker III◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Tre Tucker◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers
0.22 EPA/tgt
Average◄
7.4% sack rate
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Adam Butler◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Thomas Booker IV
no 2025 data
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
L'Jarius Sneed◄
no 2025 data
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman◄
0.5 cover/gm
Isaiah Pola-Mao
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Ja'Marr Chase◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Dexter Lawrence II◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.
0.8 impact/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Jordan Battle
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Tua Tagovailoa◄
0.03 EPA/att
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
Drake London
0.17 EPA/tgt
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.
0.18 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Da'Shawn Hand◄
no 2025 data
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Cameron Jordan◄
no 2025 data
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Drake Maye◄
0.24 EPA/att
Josh Allen
0.11 EPA/att
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
A.J. Brown◄
0.22 EPA/tgt
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry
0.35 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.57 EPA/tgt
Average
8.7% sack rate
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Christian Elliss
0.3 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau◄
0.7 impact/gm
Carlton Davis III◄
0.4 cover/gm
Christian Benford
0.3 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.14 EPA/tgt
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Average
6.4% sack rate
Alim McNeill◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Bobby Brown III
0.2 disrupt/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Tershawn Wharton
0.2 press/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Jaelan Phillips◄
0.7 impact/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Kerby Joseph◄
0.6 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts
0.05 EPA/att
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith
0.38 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.35 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Average
6.6% sack rate
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Average◄
no data
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Jalen Carter◄
no 2025 data
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Zack Baun
1.0 impact/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Josh Jacobs◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.61 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.6% sack rate
Average
6.4% sack rate
Javon Hargrave
0.4 disrupt/gm
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Karl Brooks◄
no 2025 data
Elijah Roberts
0.2 press/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Evan Williams
0.6 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Pat Freiermuth◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Yahya Black
no 2025 data
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Bo Nix
0.08 EPA/att
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
J.K. Dobbins
-0.00 EPA/tch
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Courtland Sutton◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.52 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Average
4.5% sack rate
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Alfred Collins
0.2 disrupt/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
C.J. West
no 2025 data
Jonathon Cooper◄
0.8 impact/gm
Dre Greenlaw
0.4 impact/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
$9.99/mo
Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
$29.99/mo
All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.
