Data. Trends. Matchups. Insights.
In-depth research on NFL games: spreads, totals, trends tested against luck, injuries, matchup breakdowns and the crew's leans, all in one place. Pick a week, then a game.
Each team's season: schedule and results, record against the spread, injuries and history.
| Away | @ | Home | Spread | Total | Moneyline | Top Trend | Mind Alert | Status | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Final Prime Video |  ATL35 | @ |  GB14 | GB −4.5 −112 | 43.5 o−102 / u−118 | +190 −230 | — | Primetime · TNF | No deck | |
Final Fox |  CAR18 | @ |  CLE21 | CAR −2.5 −108 | 41.5 o−115 / u−105 | −135 +114 | — | — | No deck | |
Final CBS |  CIN27 | @ |  PIT30 | CIN −3.5 −102 | 42.5 o−112 / u−108 | −180 +150 | — | Division game | No deck | |
Final CBS |  HOU17 | @ |  IND19 | HOU −1.5 −112 | 41.5 o−115 / u−105 | −125 +105 | — | Division game | No deck | |
Final CBS |  KC24 | @ |  MIA10 | KC −10 −108 | 45.5 o−105 / u−115 | −600 +440 | — | — | No deck | |
Final Fox |  LAC16 | @ |  BUF24 | BUF −7 −112 | 50.5 o−105 / u−115 | +260 −325 | — | Rest edge · BUF +3 days | No deck | |
Final CBS |  NE6 | @ |  JAX35 | JAX −3 −105 | 46.5 o−110 / u−110 | +136 −162 | — | — | No deck | |
Final Fox |  NYJ24 | @ |  DET31 | DET −7 −110 | 49.5 o−110 / u−110 | +260 −325 | — | Rest edge · DET +3 days | No deck | |
Final Fox |  SEA31 | @ |  WSH33 | SEA −8.5 −105 | 40.5 o−108 / u−112 | −410 +320 | — | — | No deck | |
Final CBS |  TEN7 | @ |  NYG12 | NYG −2.5 −110 | 37.5 o−112 / u−108 | +110 −130 | — | — | No deck | |
Final Fox |  ARI30 | @ |  SF36 | SF −7.5 −110 | 48.5 o−112 / u−108 | +310 −395 | — | Division game | No deck | |
Final Fox |  MIN23 | @ |  TB16 | MIN −1.5 −102 | 42.5 o−112 / u−108 | −112 −108 | — | — | No deck | |
Final CBS |  BAL34 | @ |  DAL31 | BAL −3 −120 | 53.5 o−120 / u+100 | −170 +142 | — | — | No deck | |
Final CBS |  LV35 | @ |  NO27 | NO −3.5 −108 | 43.5 o−118 / u−102 | +160 −192 | — | — | No deck | |
Final NBC |  LAR26 | @ |  DEN30 | DEN −1.5 +102 | 43.5 o−115 / u−105 | −108 −112 | — | Primetime · SNF | No deck | |
Final ESPN/ABC |  PHI7 | @ |  CHI27 | PHI −3.5 −112 | 42.5 o−108 / u−112 | −198 +164 | — | Primetime · MNF | No deck |
Panthers vs Packers
Full matchup breakdown: the line, form, trends tested against luck, injuries and the model.
Read Full ResearchThe week's trends appear here once its matchup research is up.
Posted Wed, Sep 23, 2:24 PM PT · 16 games · 3 props · all final · Free to read
Week 3 is the week the market overcorrects. Since 2010, 0-2 teams cover 59% in Week 3 and home favorites laying 3 or less cover only 41%, so this card leans on the numbers more than the names. Three quarterback situations shape it: Winston for Dart in New York, Mariota for Daniels in Washington, and Case Keenum likely for Caleb Williams on Monday night. The Ravens at Dallas is the strongest play, with Baltimore ranking first in the league in net EPA when games are still in doubt and the Cowboys missing three defensive backs.
Ravens @ Cowboys · Sun 4:25 PM ET
Baltimore Ravens -3.5
The biggest ratings edge under a touchdown on the board, against a Dallas defense that ranks last against the pass and is missing three defensive backs, in a spot where Baltimore is 9-2 ATS since 2021.
Final · BAL 34, DAL 31
During game week, before kickoff. The card goes up with every game of the week: a side against the spread and a moneyline call, each with a conviction grade from F to A+, plus one Best Bet and a slate of player props. The DraftKings number at posting time is shown for context.
The research behind it. Members see the card before kickoff; the matchup decks and briefs carry the research behind every side: trends tested against luck, the sample sizes, and the evidence for and against.
Analysis and entertainment, not betting advice and never a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
This week's research at a glance. Each deck carries the evidence for and against, with its sample size.
NFL WEEK 7 PREDICTIONS & BEST BETS
NFL · Oct 21
Atlanta Falcons @ Green Bay Packers
Final · ATL 35, GB 14 · DK GB -5.5 · O/U 42.5
Our score: ATL 14, GB 24
Green Bay is 14-8 ATS as a home favorite off a win since 2021, and Atlanta is on its third starting quarterback in three weeks with an offense averaging 8 points. Low grade because 0-2 road teams cover 59% in Week 3 and Thursday home teams are a coin flip.
LA Chargers @ Buffalo Bills
Final · LAC 16, BUF 24 · DK BUF -7 · O/U 50.5
Our score: LAC 20, BUF 31
Buffalo has scored a touchdown on half its drives and the ratings gap here is 10 points, the largest on the board. The Chargers are running at -0.42 EPA per carry and both tight ends are out. Home favorites of 7 to 9.5 are the one favorite bucket that covers in Week 3.
Carolina Panthers @ Cleveland Browns
Final · CAR 18, CLE 21 · DK CAR -2.5 · O/U 42.5
Our score: CAR 23, CLE 20
The ratings say Carolina by nearly 5 after the 34-3 win in Atlanta. The reason for the low grade is the spot: Carolina is 8-14 as a road favorite since 2015 and 0-3 as any favorite since 2023. Cleveland is 2-5 as a home dog off a win, so neither side has a clean situational case.
NY Jets @ Detroit Lions
Final · NYJ 24, DET 31 · DK DET -6.5 · O/U 47.5
Our score: NYJ 17, DET 27
Detroit is 8-1 ATS at home off a loss of 10 or more since 2021 and 9-3 as a home favorite off a loss. The Jets' defense ranks 2nd in the league in non-garbage-time EPA, which is why this is a C+ and not a B.
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts
Final · HOU 17, IND 19 · DK HOU -2.5 · O/U 42.5
Our score: HOU 23, IND 17
Houston has won five straight in the series, and the Colts have allowed 37 points a game with the worst pass defense in the league by yards per attempt. 0-2 hosts against 0-2 visitors cover only 5 of 15 in Week 3 since 2010.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Miami Dolphins
Final · KC 24, MIA 10 · DK KC -11.5 · O/U 46.5
Our score: KC 27, MIA 17
A number play, not a Miami play. Kansas City is 9-17 ATS on the road off a win since 2021 and 27-45 as a favorite of 6.5 or more since 2015. Week 3 home dogs of 7+ are 7-2. Miami is the worst team on the slate, which is why the score still has the Chiefs by 10.
Tennessee Titans @ NY Giants
Final · TEN 7, NYG 12 · DK NYG -2.5 · O/U 39.5
Our score: TEN 17, NYG 19
Jameis Winston replaces Jaxson Dart, and Week 3 home favorites of 3 or less cover 41%. The problem is Tennessee's own spot: 2-8 ATS on the road off a close loss since 2021. Coin flip at a good number, sized accordingly.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Final · CIN 27, PIT 30 · DK CIN -3.5 · O/U 42.5
Our score: CIN 20, PIT 17
Pittsburgh is 10-3 ATS as a home dog off a loss since 2021 and 12-3 at home off a loss of 10 or more; its pass defense leads the league in EPA. Cincinnati's 15-6 as a road favorite is the counterargument. The Steelers' offense has scored 3 points in a game already, so the under and the points are the plays.
Seattle Seahawks @ Washington Commanders
Final · SEA 31, WSH 33 · DK SEA -7 · O/U 40.5
Our score: SEA 24, WSH 13
Seattle's defense allows 4.5 yards per pass attempt and has four interceptions; Washington turns to Marcus Mariota with Jayden Daniels doubtful. Seattle is 20-7 straight up and 18-9 ATS on the road since 2023. The generic home-dog trends are the only thing against it.
New England Patriots @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Final · NE 6, JAX 35 · DK JAX -3 · O/U 45.5
Our score: NE 20, JAX 17
The ratings make this a pick'em and New England has allowed 8 points a game with no red-zone touchdowns against. Jacksonville is 5-7 as a home favorite off a loss since 2021, and Week 3 home favorites of 3 or less cover 41%. Maye's four interceptions are the risk.
Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers
Final · ARI 30, SF 36 · DK SF -8.5 · O/U 47.5
Our score: ARI 16, SF 30
San Francisco has the best pass offense in the league by EPA, zero sacks allowed, and 7 of 8 red-zone touchdowns; Arizona's explosive-play rate is 31st and its top corner is out. Arizona is 13-9 ATS in the series since 2015, which is why this is a B and not higher.
Minnesota Vikings @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Final · MIN 23, TB 16 · DK MIN -1.5 · O/U 42.5
Our score: MIN 20, TB 16
Minnesota is 7-3 ATS as a road favorite off a win since 2021 with Kyler Murray back from concussion protocol; Tampa is 5-12 at home off a loss and gives the ball away 2.5 times a game. The caution is that the Vikings' offense ranks 27th in competitive-time EPA, so this is defense and turnovers, not a blowout.
Baltimore Ravens @ Dallas Cowboys
Final · BAL 34, DAL 31 · DK BAL -3.5 · O/U 52.5
Our score: BAL 31, DAL 24
Baltimore leads the league in net EPA when games are in doubt and averages 10.4 yards per pass attempt; Dallas allowed 71% on third down and has Durant and Locke out and Hooker doubtful in the secondary. The Ravens are 9-2 ATS on the road off a close loss since 2021. Shop for -3 if you can find it.
Las Vegas Raiders @ New Orleans Saints
Final · LV 35, NO 27 · DK NO -3 · O/U 43.5
Our score: LV 19, NO 20
Las Vegas has the best defense in the league by EPA per play through two weeks, with 8 sacks. New Orleans is 3-6 ATS as a home favorite off a win since 2021, and home favorites of 3 or less cover 41% in Week 3. Raiders are 6-20 on the road since 2023, which keeps the grade modest.
LA Rams @ Denver Broncos
Final · LAR 26, DEN 30 · DK LAR -2.5 · O/U 45.5
Our score: LAR 24, DEN 20
The Rams are coming off 28-6 with a 13.4% explosive rate, second in the league, against a Denver run defense allowing +0.24 EPA per rush, the worst in the NFL. Denver is 20-7 at home since 2023 and 7-3 as a home dog since 2021, and went 11-2 in one-score games last year, a number that regresses.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears
Final · PHI 7, CHI 27 · DK PHI -4.5 · O/U 41.5
Our score: PHI 23, CHI 16
Caleb Williams is doubtful and Tyson Bagent is in concussion protocol, so Case Keenum is the likely starter. Backups making a first start as a home dog cover 53% historically and Keenum is 19-14 ATS as an underdog, which is why the Eagles side is only a C. The under is 4-1 in this series since 2015.
Kyren Williams · Rush Yds Over 55.5(-110)
went over this number in 14 of 17 games in 2025 and just ran for 85 on 12 carries; Denver's run defense is last in EPA per rush
Final · 88 Rush Yds
DeVonta Smith · Rec Yds Under 73.5(-110)
line is set on one 117-yard game; his 2025 median was 50 and he cleared 73.5 in 4 of 17. Total of 41.5 with a backup quarterback across the field means a slow game
Final · 65 Rec Yds
George Pickens · Rec Yds Over 60.5(-110)
went over in 12 of 17 last year; Dallas should be throwing to keep pace in a game with a 52.5 total
Final · 82 Rec Yds
Tapp's Best Bet · NFL
Arizona Cardinals@Los Angeles Rams· Sun, Oct 18, 4:05 PM ET
Over 51.5 (-115)-1151u
✗ Lost-1uARI 18 @ LAR 16 (34)
Tapp's Edge · Justin Tapp's card, every play logged before kickoff.
