We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Our 1 highest-conviction calls out of 16 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
NYJ
DET
19
31
Offense
DET
Defense
DET
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Jared Goff
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Kenyon Sadiq
no 2025 data
Sam LaPorta◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Alim McNeill◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV
0.9 press/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Minkah Fitzpatrick
0.6 cover/gm
Kerby Joseph◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
0.14 EPA/att
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Kenyon Sadiq
no 2025 data
Sam LaPorta◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Alim McNeill◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV
0.9 press/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Minkah Fitzpatrick
0.6 cover/gm
Kerby Joseph◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Tyler Shough◄
0.00 EPA/att
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Travis Etienne Jr.◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Tre Tucker
0.18 EPA/tgt
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers
0.22 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Bad◄
7.7% sack rate
Adam Butler◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Thomas Booker IV
no 2025 data
Cameron Jordan
no 2025 data
Quay Walker
0.9 impact/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Isaiah Pola-Mao◄
0.5 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Jaxson Dart◄
0.01 EPA/att
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Cam Skattebo◄
-0.05 EPA/tch
Carnell Tate◄
no 2025 data
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely◄
0.10 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Bad◄
8.4% sack rate
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Jermaine Johnson II◄
0.3 press/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Amani Hooker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Ja'Marr Chase
0.19 EPA/tgt
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Pat Freiermuth◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Good
5.3% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Yahya Black◄
no 2025 data
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Cameron Heyward◄
0.4 press/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Dax Hill◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride
0.38 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.52 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Average◄
4.5% sack rate
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Alfred Collins
0.2 disrupt/gm
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
C.J. West
no 2025 data
Zaven Collins◄
0.4 impact/gm
Dre Greenlaw
0.4 impact/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Omarion Hampton
-0.01 EPA/tch
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
DJ Moore◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Oronde Gadsden
0.19 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.57 EPA/tgt
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Dalvin Tomlinson
no 2025 data
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Daiyan Henley◄
0.8 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Cam Hart◄
0.5 cover/gm
Christian Benford
0.3 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cole Bishop
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Tua Tagovailoa
0.03 EPA/att
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Josh Jacobs
-0.01 EPA/tch
Drake London
0.17 EPA/tgt
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.
0.18 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.61 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Average
5.6% sack rate
Da'Shawn Hand
no 2025 data
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Karl Brooks◄
no 2025 data
Divine Deablo◄
0.7 impact/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Evan Williams
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Jayden Daniels
-0.02 EPA/att
Zach Charbonnet◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
-0.02 EPA/tch
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Terry McLaurin
0.35 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Average
5.3% sack rate
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Daron Payne
0.6 disrupt/gm
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Josh Jobe
0.6 cover/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Chuba Hubbard◄
-0.05 EPA/tch
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Tetairoa McMillan◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble◄
0.14 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Bobby Brown III
0.2 disrupt/gm
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Tershawn Wharton
0.2 press/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Jaelan Phillips
0.7 impact/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Tyson Campbell
0.7 cover/gm
Nick Scott◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Kyler Murray◄
0.02 EPA/att
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Emeka Egbuka◄
0.05 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson◄
0.16 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez◄
no 2025 data
Elijah Roberts
0.2 press/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Yaya Diaby
0.9 impact/gm
Isaiah Rodgers
0.2 cover/gm
Jacob Parrish◄
0.4 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus
0.6 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
C.J. Stroud
0.08 EPA/att
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
David Montgomery
0.01 EPA/tch
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Nico Collins
0.26 EPA/tgt
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Average
5.1% sack rate
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Laiatu Latu
0.9 press/gm
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Dak Prescott◄
0.14 EPA/att
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Zay Flowers◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson◄
0.16 EPA/tgt
Good
9.6% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Quinnen Williams◄
no 2025 data
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Malaki Starks◄
0.5 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Bo Nix
0.08 EPA/att
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins
-0.00 EPA/tch
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Courtland Sutton
0.30 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Elite
3.6% sack rate
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Jonathon Cooper
0.8 impact/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens
0.6 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Jalen Hurts
0.05 EPA/att
Caleb Williams◄
0.06 EPA/att
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Rome Odunze
0.17 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert
0.35 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Average
6.6% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Average
no data
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Devin Bush
0.9 impact/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Tyrique Stevenson
0.5 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Dillon Thieneman◄
no 2025 data
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Drake Maye◄
0.24 EPA/att
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
Rhamondre Stevenson◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
A.J. Brown◄
0.22 EPA/tgt
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry
0.35 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Average◄
8.7% sack rate
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
DaVon Hamilton◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Christian Elliss
0.3 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Patrick Mahomes
0.10 EPA/att
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Rashee Rice◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce
0.32 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.33 EPA/tgt
Average
7.4% sack rate
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Kenneth Grant◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
L'Jarius Sneed◄
no 2025 data
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman◄
0.5 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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