We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Our 2 highest-conviction calls out of 16 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
LV
LAC
16
25
Offense
LAC
Defense
LAC
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Justin Herbert◄
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Justin Herbert◄
0.02 EPA/att
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Tre Tucker◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers◄
0.22 EPA/tgt
Oronde Gadsden
0.19 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Bad◄
9.5% sack rate
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
Dalvin Tomlinson◄
no 2025 data
Thomas Booker IV
no 2025 data
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Cam Hart◄
0.5 cover/gm
Isaiah Pola-Mao
0.5 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
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0.02 EPA/att
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Tre Tucker◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers◄
0.22 EPA/tgt
Oronde Gadsden
0.19 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Bad◄
9.5% sack rate
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
Dalvin Tomlinson◄
no 2025 data
Thomas Booker IV
no 2025 data
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Cam Hart◄
0.5 cover/gm
Isaiah Pola-Mao
0.5 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Poona Ford◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Kobie Turner◄
0.6 press/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Byron Young
1.1 impact/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
C.J. Stroud
0.08 EPA/att
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
David Montgomery◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Ja'Marr Chase
0.19 EPA/tgt
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Average
5.1% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Henry To'oTo'o
0.8 impact/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Drake Maye◄
0.24 EPA/att
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
A.J. Brown
0.22 EPA/tgt
Pat Freiermuth
0.31 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.35 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Average
8.7% sack rate
Yahya Black◄
no 2025 data
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Christian Barmore◄
no 2025 data
Payton Wilson◄
0.7 impact/gm
Christian Elliss
0.3 impact/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jalen Hurts◄
0.05 EPA/att
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Saquon Barkley◄
-0.08 EPA/tch
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Dallas Goedert◄
0.35 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.6% sack rate
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Average
no data
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Jalen Carter◄
no 2025 data
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Amani Hooker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Malik Willis
0.13 EPA/att
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
De'Von Achane
0.01 EPA/tch
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans◄
0.06 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich
0.33 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.52 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Average
4.5% sack rate
Kenneth Grant◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Alfred Collins
0.2 disrupt/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
C.J. West
no 2025 data
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Dre Greenlaw
0.4 impact/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir◄
0.3 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Josh Jacobs◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.61 EPA/tgt
Kenyon Sadiq
no 2025 data
Average◄
5.6% sack rate
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Keisean Nixon
0.7 cover/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Minkah Fitzpatrick
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Tua Tagovailoa◄
0.03 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Drake London◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.14 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Bobby Brown III
0.2 disrupt/gm
Da'Shawn Hand◄
no 2025 data
Tershawn Wharton
0.2 press/gm
Brandon Dorlus◄
0.8 press/gm
Jaelan Phillips
0.7 impact/gm
Divine Deablo◄
0.7 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Caleb Williams◄
0.06 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Rome Odunze◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Devin Bush
0.9 impact/gm
Isaiah Rodgers
0.2 cover/gm
Tyrique Stevenson◄
0.5 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Dillon Thieneman
no 2025 data
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jayden Daniels
-0.02 EPA/att
Dak Prescott◄
0.14 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Terry McLaurin◄
0.35 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson◄
0.16 EPA/tgt
Good
7.3% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Josh Allen
0.11 EPA/att
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
James Cook III
0.04 EPA/tch
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta
0.53 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.57 EPA/tgt
Good
6.3% sack rate
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Alim McNeill
0.3 disrupt/gm
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau◄
0.7 impact/gm
D.J. Reed◄
0.5 cover/gm
Christian Benford
0.3 cover/gm
Kerby Joseph
0.6 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Quinshon Judkins◄
-0.10 EPA/tch
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Emeka Egbuka◄
0.05 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton◄
0.03 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Mason Graham
0.4 disrupt/gm
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Elijah Roberts
0.2 press/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Yaya Diaby
0.9 impact/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Lamar Jackson◄
0.04 EPA/att
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Chris Olave
0.19 EPA/tgt
Zay Flowers◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Cameron Jordan◄
no 2025 data
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Nate Wiggins
0.7 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Malaki Starks◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Zach Charbonnet◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Marvin Harrison Jr.
0.30 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner
0.32 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Roy Lopez
0.4 disrupt/gm
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
Zaven Collins
0.4 impact/gm
Josh Jobe
0.6 cover/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Ty Okada◄
0.5 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Courtland Sutton◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Josh Hines-Allen
1.0 press/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Jonathon Cooper
0.8 impact/gm
Montaric Brown
0.7 cover/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Patrick Mahomes
0.10 EPA/att
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Average
7.4% sack rate
Grover Stewart◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Drue Tranquill◄
0.7 impact/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
L'Jarius Sneed◄
no 2025 data
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
$9.99/mo
Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
$29.99/mo
All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.
