We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
DJ Moore◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.57 EPA/tgt
Kenyon Sadiq
no 2025 data
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Christian Benford
0.3 cover/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Minkah Fitzpatrick
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Daniel Jones
0.11 EPA/att
De'Von Achane
0.01 EPA/tch
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.33 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Good
7.4% sack rate
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Kenneth Grant
0.2 disrupt/gm
Grover Stewart◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Sauce Gardner◄
0.5 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Trevor Lawrence◄
0.05 EPA/att
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Carnell Tate◄
no 2025 data
Brenton Strange◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
6.8% sack rate
Bad
8.9% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Zach Charbonnet◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Tre Tucker
0.18 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers
0.22 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Thomas Booker IV
no 2025 data
DeMarcus Lawrence
0.8 impact/gm
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Isaiah Pola-Mao◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Tyler Shough◄
0.00 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Travis Etienne Jr.◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.14 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Bobby Brown III◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Tershawn Wharton
0.2 press/gm
Cameron Jordan◄
no 2025 data
Jaelan Phillips
0.7 impact/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry
0.9 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Justin Reid◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Josh Jacobs◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.61 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Average◄
5.6% sack rate
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Isaiah Rodgers
0.2 cover/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus
0.6 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jayden Daniels
-0.02 EPA/att
Jaxson Dart◄
0.01 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Terry McLaurin◄
0.35 EPA/tgt
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo◄
0.13 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Tim Settle◄
no 2025 data
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dru Phillips
0.6 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Marvin Harrison Jr.
0.30 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Josh Sweat◄
no 2025 data
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Zaven Collins
0.4 impact/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Drake Maye◄
0.24 EPA/att
Jared Goff
0.14 EPA/att
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
A.J. Brown
0.22 EPA/tgt
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry
0.35 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Average
8.7% sack rate
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Alim McNeill◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Christian Elliss
0.3 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes◄
0.7 impact/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
D.J. Reed◄
0.5 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Kerby Joseph◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Lamar Jackson◄
0.04 EPA/att
Omarion Hampton
-0.01 EPA/tch
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Zay Flowers◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Oronde Gadsden◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Dalvin Tomlinson
no 2025 data
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Teair Tart◄
no 2025 data
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Daiyan Henley◄
0.8 impact/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Deshaun Watson
no 2025 data
David Montgomery◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Mason Graham
0.4 disrupt/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Jared Verse
0.9 press/gm
Henry To'oTo'o
0.8 impact/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Tyson Campbell
0.7 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Tua Tagovailoa
0.03 EPA/att
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Drake London◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.
0.18 EPA/tgt
Average
7.4% sack rate
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Da'Shawn Hand◄
no 2025 data
George Karlaftis◄
0.8 press/gm
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Divine Deablo◄
0.7 impact/gm
L'Jarius Sneed◄
no 2025 data
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Brock Purdy
0.13 EPA/att
Dak Prescott◄
0.14 EPA/att
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb◄
0.20 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.52 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Average
4.5% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Alfred Collins
0.2 disrupt/gm
Otito Ogbonnia◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
C.J. West
no 2025 data
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Dre Greenlaw
0.4 impact/gm
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Cobie Durant◄
0.5 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Ja'Marr Chase
0.19 EPA/tgt
Pat Freiermuth◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Good
5.3% sack rate
Yahya Black◄
no 2025 data
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Cameron Heyward◄
0.4 press/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Dax Hill◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker
0.6 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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