We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 2-0 · full slate 11-5 straight up
Our 2 highest-conviction calls out of 16 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
WAS
PHI
18
27
Offense
PHI
Defense
PHI
Called it ✓
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Jayden Daniels
-0.02 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Jayden Daniels
-0.02 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts◄
0.05 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Terry McLaurin
0.35 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.35 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Average
6.6% sack rate
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Average
no data
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell
0.7 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
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0.05 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Terry McLaurin
0.35 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.35 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Average
6.6% sack rate
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Average
no data
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell
0.7 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Bhayshul Tuten◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Brian Thomas Jr.◄
0.14 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Bad◄
6.8% sack rate
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jared Verse
0.9 press/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Carson Schwesinger
0.9 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Montaric Brown
0.7 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Justin Herbert◄
0.02 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Oronde Gadsden
0.19 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
8.3% sack rate
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Dalvin Tomlinson
no 2025 data
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Zaven Collins
0.4 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley◄
0.8 impact/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Chris Olave
0.19 EPA/tgt
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson
0.29 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Alim McNeill◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Cameron Jordan
no 2025 data
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Kerby Joseph◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Derrick Henry
0.02 EPA/tch
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Zay Flowers
0.31 EPA/tgt
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Good
9.6% sack rate
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Roquan Smith◄
0.7 impact/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Brock Purdy
0.13 EPA/att
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Christian McCaffrey
0.04 EPA/tch
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.52 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Average
4.5% sack rate
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Alfred Collins
0.2 disrupt/gm
Poona Ford◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
C.J. West◄
no 2025 data
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Dre Greenlaw
0.4 impact/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson◄
0.4 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown
0.5 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Tua Tagovailoa
0.03 EPA/att
Aaron Rodgers◄
0.04 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson
0.03 EPA/tch
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Drake London
0.17 EPA/tgt
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.
0.18 EPA/tgt
Pat Freiermuth◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Good
5.3% sack rate
Da'Shawn Hand
no 2025 data
Yahya Black
no 2025 data
Brandon Dorlus◄
0.8 press/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Divine Deablo◄
0.7 impact/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Geno Smith◄
-0.12 EPA/att
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Breece Hall◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Carnell Tate◄
no 2025 data
Kenyon Sadiq◄
no 2025 data
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
10.8% sack rate
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Minkah Fitzpatrick◄
0.6 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Dak Prescott◄
0.14 EPA/att
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Javonte Williams◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
CeeDee Lamb◄
0.20 EPA/tgt
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson◄
0.16 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Otito Ogbonnia◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Quinnen Williams◄
no 2025 data
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Dee Winters
0.8 impact/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin◄
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Drake Maye◄
0.24 EPA/att
Sam Darnold
0.11 EPA/att
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
Zach Charbonnet◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
A.J. Brown
0.22 EPA/tgt
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.35 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner
0.32 EPA/tgt
Average
8.7% sack rate
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Christian Elliss
0.3 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Ty Okada◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
C.J. Stroud
0.08 EPA/att
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
David Montgomery
0.01 EPA/tch
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.57 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz
0.29 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Average
5.1% sack rate
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Tommy Togiai
0.4 disrupt/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
Christian Benford
0.3 cover/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Caleb Williams◄
0.06 EPA/att
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Rome Odunze◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.14 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Average
6.4% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Bobby Brown III
0.2 disrupt/gm
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Tershawn Wharton
0.2 press/gm
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Jaelan Phillips
0.7 impact/gm
Tyrique Stevenson
0.5 cover/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Dillon Thieneman◄
no 2025 data
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Bo Nix
0.08 EPA/att
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
Courtland Sutton◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Average
7.4% sack rate
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Jonathon Cooper◄
0.8 impact/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
no 2025 data
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Chase Brown◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Ja'Marr Chase◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki◄
0.07 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Elijah Roberts◄
0.2 press/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.
0.8 impact/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Dax Hill◄
0.5 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.
0.6 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Josh Jacobs◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.61 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.6% sack rate
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Isaiah Rodgers
0.2 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Tre Tucker◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.33 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers
0.22 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Kenneth Grant
0.2 disrupt/gm
Adam Butler◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Thomas Booker IV
no 2025 data
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Quay Walker
0.9 impact/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.◄
0.3 cover/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Isaiah Pola-Mao◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
$9.99/mo
Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
$29.99/mo
All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.
