WHY OH WHY?

A Mariners Autopsy + My 2026 MLB Playoff Predictions

The older I get, the more I've learned that I can depend on three things in life:

Death.

Taxes.

And the Seattle Mariners not making the World Series.

This season made it an incredible 50 seasons without a trip to the Fall Classic.

Fifty.

Five-zero.

At this point, it's not a drought. It's a family tradition.

But here's the question:

Why does this one hurt so much more?

Because unlike so many Mariners seasons before this one, where hope was basically dead by the end of June, this was supposed to be the year.

On paper, Seattle had everything.

One of the best starting rotations in Major League Baseball.

A lights-out closer.

A superstar, slugging catcher coming off a 60-home-run season.

JULIOOOOOOOOO.

And what appeared to be legitimate balance throughout the rest of the lineup with guys like Luke Raley, Brendan Donovan and Randy Arozarena.

This wasn't supposed to be another "maybe next year" Mariners team.

This was supposed to be the team.

Instead?

Here we are again.

Watching October baseball from the couch.

So...

WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED?

Let's have some fun.

And by "fun," I mean let's look at some numbers that will make Mariners fans want to throw their phones across the room.

Seattle's offense finished:

29th in batting average — .233

21st in OBP — .314

28th in slugging — .379

27th in wOBA

28th in hits — 1,253

And let's be honest, they probably finish 29th in hits if the final Yankees game of the season doesn't get canceled.

But wait!

There's more!

The Mariners led Major League Baseball with 28 blown saves.

Andrés Muñoz individually finished with 10 blown saves.

The combined wRC+ of Josh Naylor, Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodríguez: 98.

The combined wRC+ of Rob Refsnyder and Taylor Ward: 29.

And then there's my personal favorite:

Piggyback starts: 4.

Beautiful.

Absolutely beautiful.

You almost have to admire the creativity involved in finding this many different ways to make a talented baseball team underachieve.

Almost.

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SO WHAT NEEDS TO CHANGE?

If this organization actually wants to win a World Series — hell, let's start with simply making one — I think it begins with two things:

Accountability and discipline.

Whoever the next manager is, and potentially whoever is making personnel decisions above him, needs to have some balls.

Because from the outside looking in, it often felt like Dan Wilson was afraid to discipline his players.

And whether that perception is fair or not, the results were the same:

This team consistently looked like it lacked accountability.

There were multiple moments throughout the season where I found myself asking:

Who's actually running this clubhouse?

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CAL AND RANDY'S WBC CLASH

Who knows exactly what happened behind closed doors.

Maybe it was nothing.

Maybe it was something.

But Randy Arozarena and Cal Raleigh certainly didn't appear particularly buddy-buddy afterward.

If there was legitimate tension between two important players in your clubhouse, address it.

Immediately.

Get everybody in the room.

Clear the air.

Say what needs to be said.

Shake hands.

Move on.

Championship teams don't need every player to be best friends.

But everybody needs to be pulling the rope in the same direction.

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JULIO'S TWO-OUT BRAIN FART

Julio Rodríguez tossed a baseball into the crowd.

Cool.

One problem.

THERE WERE ONLY TWO OUTS.

Sure, the game was a laugher.

Sure, it ultimately didn't matter.

But...

WTF, man?

Championship teams don't take plays off.

That's exactly the type of mental mistake that should drive a manager insane.

It's not about embarrassing Julio or making an example out of your superstar.

It's about establishing a standard.

The scoreboard doesn't determine whether you play fundamentally sound baseball.

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DJ JULIO

Then there was Julio DJing the Alumni Home Run Derby after a loss to Tampa Bay.

Again...

WTF?

How long was Julio working on his "set"?

How much preparation went into it?

Did it actually affect his preparation as a hitter?

I have absolutely no idea.

Maybe it had zero impact.

But when your team is struggling offensively and one of your biggest stars isn't producing at the level expected of him, the optics aren't exactly fantastic.

Fair or unfair, that's what comes with being one of the faces of the franchise.

---

THE OFFENSE NEEDS AN OVERHAUL

This wasn't just a bad offensive season.

What drove me crazy was watching the same mistakes happen over and over again.

For the first two or three months of the season, it felt like the entire league had discovered the Mariners' cheat code:

Throw a fastball one or two inches above the waist.

Watch Seattle swing.

Repeat.

Everybody watching from their couch knew what was coming.

Apparently the Mariners didn't.

Or worse...

They knew and couldn't fix it.

That's where coaching and accountability come back into the conversation.

Players struggle.

It happens.

Baseball is ridiculously difficult.

But when the same weakness gets exploited for weeks — and then months — somebody has to make an adjustment.

Seattle either couldn't or didn't until it was too late.

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AND THEN THERE'S THE BULLPEN

Or...

The lack thereof.

How many times did we watch a Mariners starter leave a game tied or down one or two runs, only for the middle relievers to turn it into a four- or five-run deficit?

Carlos Vargas?

Michael Rucker?

Cough, cough.

There were simply too many games where the starter did his job and the bullpen immediately erased any opportunity Seattle had to win.

Twenty-eight blown saves tells you just about everything you need to know.

You can't consistently compete for championships when no lead feels safe.

Bullpen depth has to be one of the biggest priorities of the offseason.

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WHAT HAPPENED TO THE DEFENSE?

This might be the most frustrating part.

Seattle went from being one of baseball's better defensive teams to one of its biggest disappointments.

And you don't have to take my word for it.

Mariners captain Cal Raleigh was brutally honest when discussing what went wrong:

“I think there’s a lot of areas you can point to. I think ultimately, I think it was a lack of focus, a lack of execution, a lack of energy at times. Defense was not good all year, controlling the running game was not good all year. Playing bad on the road all year, hitting with runners in scoring position was definitely not good.”

Read those first three again:

Lack of focus.

Lack of execution.

Lack of energy.

When your captain is publicly saying those things after the season?

That's not a talent problem.

That's a culture problem.

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SO WHO DO THE MARINERS TURN TO?

This might be the most frustrating thing about being a Seattle sports fan.

The Mariners play directly across the street from a football organization currently built around the exact things they seem to be missing:

Accountability.

Ownership.

Preparation.

Culture.

If I were hired as the next Mariners manager, one of my first phone calls would be to Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald.

"Hey Mike, wanna grab a beer?"

Because I'd want to pick his brain.

How do you establish expectations?

How do you get stars to buy in?

How do you create accountability without losing the locker room?

How do you convince an entire roster that every rep matters?

Maybe that's the direction Seattle needs to go.

Young.

Innovative.

Aggressive.

Someone who isn't afraid to challenge players.

Someone who isn't afraid to change how things have always been done.

It's been 50 seasons.

At this point, Mariners fans are willing to try damn near anything.

So why not?

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THERE IS ONE REASON FOR HOPE

Cal Raleigh.

Not just because of what he does on the field.

Because of what he said after the season.

I want the captain of my baseball team to be pissed off.

I want him pointing out the lack of focus.

I want him talking about execution.

I want him acknowledging that the defense wasn't good enough.

That's leadership.

Dan Wilson won't be back next season.

Changes are coming.

And while I have absolutely no idea whether those changes will finally get this franchise over the hump, I do know one thing:

It will be difficult for 2027 to be as disappointing as 2026.

Then again...

These are the Seattle Mariners.

Never challenge them.

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2026 MLB PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS

Enough misery.

While Seattle begins another offseason, the rest of baseball gets to have fun.

Here are my predictions for the 2026 MLB postseason.

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AMERICAN LEAGUE WILD CARD

CHICAGO WHITE SOX OVER HOUSTON ASTROS

Why not?

The White Sox have been one of the best stories in baseball, and I'm riding the magical run for at least one more series.

The thing I think gives Houston problems?

Speed.

Chicago can create havoc on the basepaths, manufacture runs and force a defense to make plays under pressure.

October baseball gets weird.

Give me the White Sox to keep the magic alive.

PICK: WHITE SOX

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NEW YORK YANKEES OVER BOSTON RED SOX

This is basically a coin flip.

Yankees-Red Sox.

October.

Best-of-three.

What could possibly go wrong?

I like New York in Game 1.

Boston responds and takes Game 2.

Then we get exactly what everybody wants:

GAME 3.

And my analysis for the deciding game is incredibly sophisticated:

It's in New York.

That's it.

Give me the Yankees.

PICK: YANKEES IN 3

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NATIONAL LEAGUE WILD CARD

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES OVER ATLANTA BRAVES

Atlanta was one of my darlings coming into the season.

I loved this team.

Then the injuries came.

And came.

And came.

Eventually there's only so much a roster can absorb.

Philadelphia hasn't exactly entered October looking like an unstoppable machine, either.

But look at the names in that lineup.

There's simply too much talent for me to believe they're going quietly.

PICK: PHILLIES

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SAN DIEGO PADRES OVER CHICAGO CUBS

Pitching.

Pitching.

And more pitching.

That's what October baseball comes down to.

And in this matchup, I think San Diego has the clear advantage.

Chicago had a good season.

Congratulations.

Unfortunately...

THE DADDIES ARE COMING.

Give me San Diego.

PICK: PADRES

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AMERICAN LEAGUE DIVISION SERIES

CLEVELAND GUARDIANS OVER CHICAGO WHITE SOX

Chicago's magical run ends here.

Cleveland has one of the best pitching staffs in baseball, and that's exactly what I want in a short postseason series.

The deeper we get into October, the more important pitching becomes.

And Cleveland has enough of it to make a serious run.

Anybody else getting shades of 2016?

PICK: GUARDIANS

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NEW YORK YANKEES OVER TAMPA BAY RAYS

Here's the weird thing:

In a seven-game series?

I might actually prefer Tampa Bay.

But this isn't seven.

It's five.

And in a five-game series, New York's pitching scares the hell out of me.

Cam Schlittler.

Gerrit Cole.

Max Fried.

Good luck.

Tampa is deep enough to make this uncomfortable, but New York has the type of top-end pitching that can completely take over a short series.

PICK: YANKEES

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NATIONAL LEAGUE DIVISION SERIES

LOS ANGELES DODGERS OVER PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

Give me all five games.

This has the potential to be one of the best series of the entire postseason.

Star power everywhere.

Big-time pitching.

Two lineups capable of completely changing a game in one inning.

But I think the Jesus Luzardo injury ultimately becomes the difference.

Philadelphia can survive it for a while.

Against Los Angeles?

Eventually it bites them.

PICK: DODGERS IN 5

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MILWAUKEE BREWERS OVER SAN DIEGO PADRES

I like San Diego.

I really do.

But Milwaukee just has too much.

The Brewers are deep.

They're balanced.

They can pitch.

They can hit.

They have a bullpen built for October.

There just aren't many weaknesses here.

San Diego makes it competitive.

Milwaukee moves on.

PICK: BREWERS

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AMERICAN LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES

NEW YORK YANKEES OVER CLEVELAND GUARDIANS

This is where New York's firepower finally becomes the difference.

Cleveland can absolutely pitch well enough to make this a series.

In fact, if the Guardians can somehow get this thing to Game 7?

Watch out.

But over the course of the series, I trust New York's combination of starting pitching and offensive firepower slightly more.

PICK: YANKEES

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NATIONAL LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES

MILWAUKEE BREWERS OVER LOS ANGELES DODGERS

This might be the real World Series.

Seriously.

These might be the two most complete teams remaining.

Los Angeles has the stars.

Milwaukee has the depth.

And in October, I'm taking depth.

The Brewers have one of the deepest overall rosters in baseball, a rotation built for postseason baseball and a bullpen capable of shortening games.

Give me Milwaukee.

PICK: BREWERS

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WORLD SERIES

MILWAUKEE BREWERS OVER NEW YORK YANKEES

And here we go.

The Yankees.

The Brewers.

The Fall Classic.

New York has the bigger names.

New York has the bigger payroll.

New York has the history.

Milwaukee?

I think Milwaukee has the better baseball team.

Top to bottom, this is the most complete roster in the postseason.

They have starting pitching.

They have bullpen depth.

They have enough offense.

They play fundamentally sound baseball.

And after years of being one of the most consistently competitive organizations in Major League Baseball without finally breaking through...

THIS IS THE YEAR.

For the first time in franchise history:

THE MILWAUKEE BREWERS ARE WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS.

And your World Series MVP?

MISIOROWSKI.

Because if we're going for it...

We're going all the way.

WORLD SERIES: MILWAUKEE BREWERS OVER NEW YORK YANKEES

WORLD SERIES MVP: JACOB MISIOROWSKI

Seattle?

We'll try this again next year.

For the 51st time.

Why oh why?

— Sizzlin Sports