KASEY'S THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL PREDICTION

ATLANTA FALCONS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS

Thursday, September 24 | 5:15 PM PT | Prime Video Line: Packers -6 | O/U: 44.5 Week 3 starts at Lambeau Field with two teams I'm not sure the market has figured out yet.

The Atlanta Falcons are 0-2 and have been one of the worst offensive teams in football.

The Green Bay Packers are 1-1, but needed overtime to escape the Jets and have some absolutely disgusting offensive numbers of their own.

So naturally...

I'm taking Atlanta.

And I don't just think the Falcons cover.

I THINK ATLANTA WINS THE GAME.

This prediction really comes down to one question:

How much does Michael Penix Jr. change this Falcons offense?

I'm betting the answer is a lot.

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PENIX CHANGES EVERYTHING

Let's start with how bad Atlanta's passing game has been.

Through two weeks, the Falcons' average pass has traveled only 4.4 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, the shortest average depth in the NFL.

Despite barely pushing the football downfield, they've still thrown five interceptions, the most in the league.

Think about that.

You're not taking chances.

You're not pushing the ball vertically.

And you're still turning it over.

That's a nightmare.

Now Michael Penix Jr. becomes Atlanta's third starting quarterback in three weeks.

And unlike the previous two, I think Penix can actually unlock what this offense is supposed to be.

Atlanta finally has somebody willing and capable of attacking downfield.

That changes everything.

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DON'T UNDERESTIMATE THE CHEMISTRY

This is probably the biggest reason I'm more optimistic about Penix than most.

He already has a repertoire with Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts and Drake London.

Those aren't new weapons he's meeting for the first time Thursday afternoon.

He's worked with these guys.

He understands their tendencies.

And he's had time to study for this opportunity.

That's especially important on a short week.

Normally, I'd hate throwing a quarterback into a Thursday night road game at Lambeau.

But Penix hasn't spent the beginning of this week trying to recover from getting hit 15 times on Sunday.

He's been preparing.

He's been studying.

And now he gets an opportunity to step into an offense loaded with legitimate weapons.

I expect him to be ready.

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INJURED PLAYERS HAVE BEEN COMING BACK STRONG

This is another angle I'm watching.

We've already seen players returning from injuries start this season surprisingly strong.

Maybe it's improved recovery.

Maybe it's the additional preparation time.

Maybe we're just looking at a small sample.

But I'm not automatically assuming Penix needs three games before he looks comfortable.

I think there's a legitimate possibility he comes out Thursday night looking much sharper than people expect.

And if he does?

Atlanta suddenly becomes a completely different football team.

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BIJAN MIGHT HAVE A QUIET NIGHT ON THE GROUND

Here's the weird part about picking Atlanta:

My favorite bet of the entire game is actually a Bijan Robinson under.

Green Bay's run defense has been outstanding.

The Packers are allowing only:

3.05 yards per carry.

That's the best mark in the NFL.

So if Atlanta's game plan is:

"Let's protect Penix by handing Bijan the football 25 times."

I don't think that's going to work.

Instead, Penix needs to be the reason Atlanta wins.

Use Bijan in the passing game.

Get Pitts involved.

Give London opportunities downfield.

Attack the middle of the field.

Make Green Bay defend the entire offense instead of loading up against Bijan.

This might actually be the perfect game for Atlanta to finally open things up.

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THE HISTORY SAYS POINTS

Here's where this matchup gets really interesting.

Falcons-Packers games at Lambeau have historically scored.

The last seven meetings in Green Bay have averaged 55.4 combined points.

The last eight meetings overall have all cleared 40 points.

And who remembers that ridiculous 43-37 shootout in 2014?

Tonight's total?

43.5.

That's interesting considering Atlanta is averaging...

Eight points per game.

But despite the history, I don't think we get another shootout tonight.

I expect Penix to improve Atlanta's offense without immediately turning it into a juggernaut.

This feels more like a game where Atlanta finally moves the football, avoids the catastrophic mistakes and does just enough to win.

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WHY I'M NOT BUYING GREEN BAY -4.5

Here's where my Falcons pick really starts making sense.

Green Bay has some ugly numbers hiding underneath that 1-1 record.

115.5 penalty yards per game.

That's the most in the NFL.

19% on third down.

That's the worst in the NFL.

-0.435 EPA per rushing attempt.

Also worst in the NFL.

Then there's Jordan Love.

He's completing passes at a rate 11 percentage points below expectation, the second-worst mark in football.

That's not exactly screaming:

LAY THE POINTS.

Green Bay needed overtime to beat the Jets.

And by non-garbage-time team rating, the Packers sit around 15th.

That's essentially a middle-of-the-pack football team.

And we're laying 4.5 points with them?

No thanks.

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KASEY'S THREE PREDICTIONS

1. MICHAEL PENIX THROWS FOR 250+ YARDS

I'm buying Penix immediately.

Maybe I'll look stupid by halftime.

That's the fun part.

But this Atlanta offense desperately needs somebody who can stretch the field, and Penix has the arm to do it.

Green Bay is going to make running difficult.

So Atlanta eventually has to put the football in Penix's hands.

I think he responds.

Penix goes over 250 through the air.

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2. DRAKE LONDON FINALLY GETS GOING

Penix and London already have familiarity.

And if Penix starts pushing the football downfield more aggressively, London should be one of the biggest beneficiaries.

Atlanta didn't build this offense around Bijan, Pitts and London just to throw four-yard passes all season.

Penix gives London an opportunity to finally stretch his legs.

I'm expecting his best game of the season.

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3. ATLANTA FINALLY LOOKS LIKE A FUNCTIONAL OFFENSE

I'm not predicting 30 points.

I don't think Penix walks into Lambeau and immediately turns Atlanta into the Greatest Show on Turf.

What I'm predicting is something Atlanta hasn't shown us through two weeks:

Competency.

Sustain drives.

Push the ball beyond the sticks.

Protect the football.

Get Pitts and London involved.

And finish enough drives to win.

That's a massive improvement from what we've seen.

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KASEY'S BEST BET

BIJAN ROBINSON UNDER 77.5 RUSHING YARDS

This is my best bet of the night.

And yes, I'm taking Atlanta while fading Bijan's rushing production.

Those two things aren't contradictory.

Green Bay's run defense is allowing 3.05 yards per carry, the best mark in football.

Bijan's 2025 median on a full workload was 76 rushing yards.

This season?

83 yards.

Then 72 yards.

The number originally opened around 81.5 and has already been bet down four yards.

So yes, some of the value has disappeared.

I still like it at 77.5.

Because I don't think Atlanta wins this game by pounding Bijan between the tackles.

BEST BET: BIJAN ROBINSON UNDER 77.5 RUSHING YARDS

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KASEY'S SECOND BET

ATLANTA FALCONS +4.5

I'm taking the points.

But if you've read this far, you already know something:

I DON'T THINK WE'LL NEED THEM.

Green Bay is averaging 115.5 penalty yards per game.

They're converting 19% of third downs.

Their rushing offense ranks last by EPA.

Jordan Love's completion rate is significantly below expectation.

And it took overtime for them to beat the Jets.

Now Atlanta gets a legitimate reset at quarterback.

I'm not laying 4.5 with Green Bay.

Give me Atlanta.

BET: FALCONS +4.5

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THE SIZZLE

Atlanta is 0-2.

They're averaging eight points.

They're starting their third quarterback in three games.

And they're walking into Lambeau Field on Thursday night.

That's exactly why we're getting the number.

I don't think the offense we've watched for two weeks is the offense we're going to watch tonight.

Michael Penix changes the equation.

He has weapons.

He has familiarity with those weapons.

He's had time to prepare.

And Green Bay has shown absolutely nothing through two games that makes me comfortable laying more than a field goal.

So give me the upset.

FINAL SCORE

ATLANTA FALCONS 22

GREEN BAY PACKERS 17

BEST BET: BIJAN ROBINSON UNDER 77.5 RUSHING YARDS

BET: ATLANTA FALCONS +4.5

PREDICTION: MICHAEL PENIX JR. 250+ PASSING YARDS

I'm calling it now:

Michael Penix Jr. gives Atlanta exactly the spark it has been waiting for.

Falcons get their first win.

Packers fall to 1-2.

And suddenly that 0-2 start in Atlanta feels like a completely different season.

— Kasey “BigSlick” Orr | Sizzlin Sports

Odds and prop lines can move before kickoff. Check current numbers before placing any wager.