Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks: Three Predictions and Three Best Bets

Clear your Monday night. This is the Game of the Year.

Ben Johnson walks into Lumen Field with an offense that runs more plays than anybody in football.

Seattle traded for Quenton Nelson six days ago, and tonight he lines up in front of Sam Darnold for the first time.

Chicago brings the worst pass defense in the league, measured by yards per attempt.

The market is bracing for a grind. I think the scoreboard operator is going to need a cigarette by halftime.

CHICAGO BEARS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Monday, November 2 | 5:15 PM PT | ESPN

Line: Seahawks -3 | O/U: 46.5

Weather: 52°F, intermittent clouds, gusts up to 5 mph

Chicago is 5-2, and 5-2 against the spread. Seattle is 4-3, 3-1 at home, and still the defending champs after beating New England 29-13 in Super Bowl LX.

DraftKings has Seattle -3 (-120) and the moneyline at -180 / +150. This opened Seahawks -4.5, and 67% of the money on the spread is sitting on Chicago. The total opened 47.5, has slipped to 46.5, and 62% of the tickets are on the under.

So the public looks at the best pass defense in football and a Bears team that holds the ball 35 and a half minutes a game, and it leans under, with Seattle's team total at 24.5 and Chicago's at 21.5.

I respect the under crowd the way I respect the guy who leaves the bar at nine. Responsible. Well rested. Missing the best part of the night.

THE BEN JOHNSON SHOW

Let me get the love letter out of the way first, because that is what this is.

Here are the Bears the year before Ben Johnson showed up. 2024: 5-12. 18.2 points a game, 28th. 310.9 yards a game, dead last. 4.54 yards per play, dead last. 68 sacks allowed, dead last.

That's not an offense. That's a hostage situation.

Year one under Johnson, 2025: 11-6. 25.9 points a game. 379.2 yards a game, sixth in the league. The sacks went from 68 to 24, the third fewest in football. Then they beat Green Bay 31-27 in the Wild Card round and lost to the Rams by three in the Divisional round.

One offseason.

Year two, right now: 5-2. 409.1 yards a game, second in the NFL. 154.3 rushing yards a game, second. 72.1 plays a game, first. They convert 44% of their third downs.

And here's the part that tells you it's the coach. Caleb Williams missed Weeks 3 through 5. Johnson rolled out Case Keenum and Tyson Bagent and went 2-1 anyway.

Since Caleb came back, he has thrown for 305 at Atlanta and 308 against New England, and the Bears put up 31 and 30. In the four games Caleb has started, Chicago is averaging 30.75 points.

Oh, and Johnson has had 11 days to get ready for this one. The Bears last played on Thursday, October 22. Seattle played Sunday night, October 25, so it gets eight. Give that man eleven days and a whiteboard and go hide your secondary.

I'd let Ben Johnson call plays at my wedding. Then I'd let him call plays at the divorce.

THE BEARS' PASS DEFENSE GIVES IT UP ON THE FIRST DATE

Here's Chicago's problem, and it's the reason I can't get to a low-scoring game no matter how hard I squint.

The Bears allow 8.71 yards per pass attempt. That's 32nd. Dead last. They allow 6.25 yards per play, also 32nd. Opposing quarterbacks have a 102.8 passer rating against them.

They've given up 20 completions of 20-plus yards and nine of 40-plus. Nine. Seattle's defense has given up one.

Three quarterbacks have thrown for 300 on them in seven games:

Bryce Young 361. Jordan Love 367. Drake Maye 321.

If Bryce Young can throw for 361 on you, Sam Darnold and Jaxon Smith-Njigba are going to enjoy their evening.

And it got thinner. Safety Coby Bryant went on injured reserve on October 28 after knee surgery. Defensive end Dayo Odeyingbo, who had three sacks, is on IR too. Corner Malik Muhammad II is questionable with a toe.

The one guy on that defense who scares me is in the slot. Nickel corner Kyler Gordon came off PUP on October 17 and has four sacks in two games. Keep an eye on him, because he's how Darnold's night goes sideways.

SEATTLE'S NEW TOYS

Seattle needed a jolt. The offense is scoring 24.0 a game, down from 28.4 last season.

So on October 27, the Seahawks went and got Quenton Nelson from Indianapolis for a 2027 third-round pick and a 2028 fifth. He's in his ninth season, he played all seven Colts games this year, and tonight he's Seattle's starting left guard in his first game as a Seahawk.

Six days in town and he's already the most important man in Sam Darnold's life.

Here's why. Look at Darnold's season split by how clean the pocket was:

Not sacked once (Week 3 at Washington, Week 7 vs. Kansas City): 636 yards, five touchdowns.

Sacked five times in each (Week 5 vs. San Francisco, Week 6 at Denver): one touchdown, four interceptions.

Clean pocket, Darnold cooks. Dirty pocket, Darnold starts throwing it to the other team. Nelson's whole job tonight is keeping it clean.

Now the fine print, because I'm not going to sell you a perfect offensive line. Left tackle Charles Cross is out with an ankle, so Josh Jones starts at left tackle next to Nelson. And Chicago made its own trade on October 29, sending two first-round picks and a fourth to Tennessee for defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons. He's listed as the Bears' starting right defensive tackle, so he debuts tonight too. In a four-man front that spot usually ends up across from the offense's left side, which is Nelson's side.

Two guys who got traded last week, possibly staring at each other for sixty minutes. That's worth the price of admission by itself.

The rest of the toy box:

• Emanuel Wilson, signed in March, is Seattle's leading rusher with 403 yards and three touchdowns on 111 carries, and he just ran for 100 yards against Kansas City.
• Zach Charbonnet came off PUP on October 22 and is listed as the starter. He didn't get a carry against the Chiefs, so tonight should be his first carries of the season.
• Irv Charles, acquired from the Jets in May, moves up to the No. 2 receiver spot because Rashid Shaheed is out with a knee.
• First-round pick Jadarian Price is still on injured reserve. The shiniest toy is still in the box.

And then there's the toy they already had. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has 58 catches, 867 yards and eight touchdowns. He's averaging 123.9 yards a game, and last season he had 1,793.

WHY THIS IS THE GAME OF THE YEAR

Put it together.

Chicago runs 72.1 plays a game, the most in football. Seattle has already been in two shootouts this year: 64 total points at Washington and 61 against San Francisco, part of three straight overs from Weeks 3 to 5. It lost both of those by a field goal or less. Tonight it's on the right end of one. Chicago's last two games each landed on 54, over the closing number both times.

The weather won't save anybody either. The forecast at kickoff has 1 mph of wind and a 1% chance of rain. No Seattle drizzle to hide behind. Dry ball, on turf.

And the history? The last time these two played, December 26, 2024, Seattle won 6-3. Six to three. My score beats that by 62 points. You're welcome, America.

Here's the honest part. The best argument against me is Seattle's pass defense, and it's a great argument. The Seahawks allow 158.0 passing yards a game and 5.19 yards per attempt, both the best in the NFL. They allow 17.9 points a game, third in the league. Nobody has thrown for more than 189 yards on them this season, and their last time out they held Patrick Mahomes to 165 and Kansas City to three points.

So the under crowd isn't crazy. They're just betting against Ben Johnson with eleven days to prepare. I'm not doing that.

KASEY'S THREE PREDICTIONS

1. SAM DARNOLD THROWS FOUR TOUCHDOWNS

DraftKings has Darnold at 1.5 touchdown passes. I'm calling four.

He has done it three times as a Seahawk, most recently in Week 3 at Washington: 379 yards and four touchdowns, and he wasn't sacked once. That's the blueprint. Quenton Nelson walks in, the middle of the pocket stays clean, and Darnold gets to stand there and pick on the worst yards-per-attempt defense in the league.

Darnold throws four touchdown passes with Quenton Nelson giving him all night to throw.

2. JAXON SMITH-NJIGBA SAILS FOR 200

He has 100 yards in six of seven games. The Bears have given up nine completions of 40-plus. And with Shaheed out, there's even less reason for Darnold to look anywhere else.

His career high is 180, against the Rams, two years ago tomorrow. Tonight he breaks it.

JSN sails for 200 receiving yards, the first 200-yard game of his career.

3. CALEB WILLIAMS THROWS FOR 300 AND THREE TOUCHDOWNS

This is the one that's going to get me yelled at, so here's the bad news first. Nobody has thrown for 190 on Seattle this year. Caleb has never had a 300-yard, three-touchdown game in his career. The closest he's come was 298 yards and four touchdowns against Dallas in Week 3 last season (September 2025). DraftKings has him at 234.5 yards and 1.5 touchdowns.

Now the good news. He has thrown for 305 and 308 in his two games since coming back, and the man calling his plays took this offense from 32nd in yards to 2nd in two seasons. In a 38-33 game, Chicago is throwing to keep up, and Caleb is going to get his shots.

Caleb throws for 300 yards and three touchdowns against the best pass defense in football. That's the Ben Johnson effect.

KASEY'S THREE BEST BETS

1. OVER 46.5 (-110)

The worst pass defense in the league by yards per attempt, against a receiver averaging 123.9 a game. The offense that runs the most plays in football, with eleven days to prepare. A dry, calm night on turf.

The total dropped a point from 47.5, and 62% of the tickets are on the under. I'll take the point they gave back.

Remember those team totals, 24.5 for Seattle and 21.5 for Chicago? I've got both teams clearing theirs by double digits.

The risk is obvious. Seattle is the best in football at stopping the pass, and Chicago loves to hold the ball. Bears opponents are running only 50.1 plays a game. If Johnson decides to grind this out with D'Andre Swift and his seven rushing touchdowns, this goes under in a hurry. I don't think he does. I think he goes after it.

BEST BET: OVER 46.5 (-110)

2. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -3 (-120)

This line opened Seahawks -4.5. It's -3 now, with 67% of the money on Chicago. I'll take the champs at home on the key number, and I'll pay the juice to do it.

Seattle is 3-1 at home. ESPN's matchup predictor gives them a 56.6% chance to win. And in a shootout, I trust the team with the best receiver on the field and a brand-new left guard in front of its quarterback.

If you'd rather not sweat a push at exactly three, the moneyline is -180.

BEST BET: SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -3 (-120)

3. JAXON SMITH-NJIGBA OVER 98.5 RECEIVING YARDS

122. 155. 128. 76. 102. 134. 150.

Six of seven over this number. The line opened at 96.5, it's 98.5 now, and that's still 25 yards under his season average.

And here's the stat that sold me. In the two games Darnold got sacked five times each, JSN still went for 102 and 134. Even when the pocket is a mess, he gets his.

I'm calling 200. This bet only needs half of that.

Prop prices move. Shop this one before you place it.

BEST BET: JAXON SMITH-NJIGBA OVER 98.5 RECEIVING YARDS

FINAL SCORE

SEAHAWKS 38, BEARS 33

BEST BET: OVER 46.5 (-110)

BEST BET: SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -3 (-120)

BEST BET: JAXON SMITH-NJIGBA OVER 98.5 RECEIVING YARDS

Seventy-one points. Seattle by five, so the 3 cashes. The over clears by more than three touchdowns. JSN clears his number before the fourth quarter.

Where I lose: if Simmons and Gordon turn this into another five-sack night, Seattle doesn't get to 38 and the side gets scary. JSN is the bet that survives that script. He's already done it twice this year.

And whatever happens tonight, tip your cap to Ben Johnson. Two years ago this was the worst offense in football by yards. Tonight it walks into the champs' building in a game with Game of the Year written all over it.

Game of the Year. Let's ride.

— Kasey "BigSlick" Orr | Sizzlin Sports

Odds and prop lines can move before kickoff. Check current numbers before placing any wager.