NFL Week 4 Betting Preview: Spreads, Weather, and Model Projections

Will Week 4 be just as crazy as Week 3?

The Sizzlin CEO doesn't think so.

Although he did start looking up lunar patterns thanks to Big Slick.

Sixteen games. Every spread, every forecast, and the one bet I'd actually make in each of them.

Let's ride.

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THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS

Thursday, October 1 | 5:15 PM PT | Prime Video

Line: Steelers -2.5 | O/U: 38.5

Weather: 74°F, scattered showers, gusty winds out of the southwest up to 22 mph.

The Browns have won two in a row while Pittsburgh was able to drop 30 on the Bengals last weekend.

WTF!?

Maybe I should just bet on whichever defense I add in fantasy for the week. Sorry, Bengals fans.

I really like the Browns defense, and Aaron Rodgers doesn't recover as well as he used to.

Gimme the Brownies.

PREDICTION: BROWNS 20, STEELERS 17

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SUNDAY EARLY SLATE

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

Sunday, October 4 | 6:30 AM PT | NFL Network

Line: Colts -3.5 | O/U: 47.5

Weather: 60°F, partly cloudy, mild morning conditions typical for London in early October.

Both of these teams are coming in off wins, although the Commanders was definitely more shocking.

I think Washington has a huge letdown game after taking it to Seattle last week.

I expect a lot of touches from Jonathan Taylor.

Colts make it two in a row.

PREDICTION: COLTS 31, COMMANDERS 17

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NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ BUFFALO BILLS

Sunday, October 4 | 10:00 AM PT | CBS

Line: Bills -6.5 | O/U: 48.5

Weather: 65°F, mostly sunny with light winds. Ideal conditions in Orchard Park.

The Bills come in after a scare versus the Chargers at home while New England comes in licking their wounds after getting devoured by Jacksonville.

Three weeks in, and the Patriots offense is nowhere to be found.

Buffalo lost at home to this team last year, and I'm expecting a revenge game for Josh Allen and company.

This game could get ugly real quick if the Pats offense doesn't show up.

PREDICTION: BILLS 33, PATRIOTS 17

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NEW YORK JETS @ CHICAGO BEARS

Sunday, October 4 | 10:00 AM PT | FOX

Line: Bears -3.5 | O/U: 43.5

Weather: 62°F, breezy off Lake Michigan with wind gusts around 15 mph.

Two words.

Trap. Game.

Props to Case Keenum for leading the Bears to a victory versus the Eagles on Monday Night Football. However, backup quarterbacks — especially older ones — tend to struggle after their first start, and I'm thinking that's the case here.

Factor in the primetime letdown and you've got yourself a serious case of upset alert.

Oh yeah, the Jets are a lot better this year too.

Give me the Jets.

PREDICTION: JETS 20, BEARS 17

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JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS

Sunday, October 4 | 10:00 AM PT | CBS

Line: Bengals -2.5 | O/U: 51.5

Weather: 72°F, potential for heavy rain and scattered thunderstorms affecting the passing attack.

How is this not the primetime game!?

A rematch of the 2019 National Championship quarterbacks with two Super Bowl contending teams. Instead we get the Lions and Panthers.

COME ON MAN!

Not to mention that both Lawrence and Burrow are playing lights out, with both quarterbacks ranked in the PFF Top 10.

This is going to be a great matchup. Give me the Bengals in a midseason classic.

PREDICTION: BENGALS 31, JAGUARS 30

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ARIZONA CARDINALS @ NEW YORK GIANTS

Sunday, October 4 | 10:00 AM PT | CBS

Line: Cardinals -1.5 | O/U: 44.5

Weather: 68°F, crisp and clear at MetLife Stadium.

What did Arizona do to deserve such a tough opening schedule? My goodness.

They've already played the Chargers, Seahawks and 49ers.

If Arizona wants a shot at a wild card, they need to win this game. I think all the experience they've acquired playing the nasty boys out in the NFC West is going to pay off tremendously in this one.

The Giants will once again bring out Jameis Winston while the JJ McCarthy experience will have to wait a couple more weeks.

PREDICTION: CARDINALS 24, GIANTS 17

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LOS ANGELES RAMS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Sunday, October 4 | 10:00 AM PT | FOX

Line: Rams -3 | O/U: 43.5

Weather: 70°F, mostly sunny, excellent football weather.

Yes, the Eagles have the better record, but Monday night proved that this team isn't the same Super Bowl powerhouse they used to be.

What happened to Philly's edge?

Meanwhile, Fat Matthew Stafford looks to lead the Rams back to a victory after an epic collapse versus the Broncos last week.

Nobody expected the Rams to be 1-2 at this point of the season.

I think they smoke Philly in this one.

PREDICTION: RAMS 27, EAGLES 10

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GREEN BAY PACKERS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Sunday, October 4 | 10:00 AM PT | FOX

Line: Packers -3.5 | O/U: 39.5

Weather: 88°F, humid, chance of passing afternoon thunderstorms.

The battle of the Bays!!!!!

Yikes.

This game kind of loses its luster if you look at the teams' records. I mean, what the hell, man.

Green Bay looked absolutely lost versus a winless Atlanta team, while Tampa Bay almost knocked off Minnesota but unfortunately lost Baker Mayfield to injury.

Give me the Packers, I guess?

PREDICTION: PACKERS 22, BUCCANEERS 16

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TENNESSEE TITANS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS

Sunday, October 4 | 10:00 AM PT | CBS

Line: Ravens -11.5 | O/U: 43.5

Weather: 68°F, chance of rain, winds around 10 mph with gusts up to 28 mph.

Loop, there it is!

The Ravens were able to sneak one away versus Dallas with only seven seconds left when Tyler Loop nailed a game-winning field goal after a Lamar Jackson laser set them up.

The Titans meanwhile couldn't capitalize versus the Giants and still haven't won a game.

Their defense does seem to be coming around, though.

PREDICTION: RAVENS 29, TITANS 13

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DALLAS COWBOYS @ HOUSTON TEXANS

Sunday, October 4 | 10:00 AM PT | FOX

Line: Texans -2.5 | O/U: 48.5

Weather: 84°F outside, but expect optimal conditions inside NRG Stadium with the retractable roof likely closed.

If Dallas doesn't make the playoffs this year, you can thank Lamar Jackson and the six or seven seconds it took for him to put the Ravens in field goal range.

The Texans also lost on a walk-off kick and look to get their first win of the year.

If the Texans lose again, they will easily be the best 0-4 team in NFL history.

PREDICTION: COWBOYS 24, TEXANS 20

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SUNDAY LATE SLATE

MIAMI DOLPHINS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Sunday, October 4 | 1:05 PM PT | FOX

Line: Vikings -10.5 | O/U: 38.5

Weather: Climate-controlled dome at U.S. Bank Stadium.

0-3 versus 3-0.

By all means the Vikings should be able to dominate the Dolphins.

However, I can see Minnesota feeling a bit too overconfident, especially after last week's win in Tampa, and having a few boneheaded plays in this one to keep Miami close.

PREDICTION: VIKINGS 27, DOLPHINS 21

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KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ LAS VEGAS RAIDERS

Sunday, October 4 | 1:25 PM PT | CBS

Line: Chiefs -4.5 | O/U: 47.5

Weather: Climate-controlled dome at Allegiant Stadium.

Did we expect the Chiefs to be here? Yes.

The Raiders? No!

I gotta say, the NFL is more fun when the Raiders are good.

Vegas will face their first true test this season when the Chiefs come to town. The Raiders have used timely defense and turnovers to flip games, while the Chiefs have used a rejuvenated ground game to dominate the line of scrimmage.

Allegiant Stadium is going to be insane.

I like the Raiders to cover, but the Chiefs on a walk-off field goal.

PREDICTION: CHIEFS 26, RAIDERS 24

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LOS ANGELES CHARGERS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Sunday, October 4 | 1:25 PM PT | CBS

Line: Seahawks -7 | O/U: 42.5

Weather: 61°F, partly cloudy, standard Pacific Northwest autumn conditions.

The defending champs will look to bounce back after a shocking loss to the Commanders.

You can bet Mike Macdonald is licking his chops to face his former partner at Michigan, Jim Harbaugh. Macdonald actually has ties to the whole Harbaugh family: he was the defensive coordinator for Jim at Michigan, the defensive coordinator in Baltimore for John Harbaugh, and Jay Harbaugh, John's son, is the Seahawks special teams coordinator.

Pretty cool.

The Chargers schedule doesn't get any easier, but they did show some signs of life versus Buffalo last week.

I expect the Seahawks defense to be back to its normal self.

PREDICTION: SEAHAWKS 20, CHARGERS 13

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DENVER BRONCOS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Sunday, October 4 | 1:25 PM PT | CBS

Line: 49ers -3 | O/U: 47.5

Weather: 75°F, sunny and clear skies in Santa Clara.

Neeeeeeigh!

The Pony Express comes into town hot off an epic comeback versus the Rams on Sunday Night Football.

The Niners have lived up to their name and have struck gold this year, looking dominant in all their games.

What a game. I like the Niners in a nail biter.

PREDICTION: 49ERS 31, BRONCOS 28

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SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

DETROIT LIONS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS

Sunday, October 4 | 5:20 PM PT | NBC

Line: Lions -3.5 | O/U: 50.5

Weather: 74°F, clear evening with minimal wind.

This should be fun.

The battle for the rights to the Honolulu Blue color will be on display in primetime.

Both of these teams have had some tense games and been blown out. The Panthers receivers might be a matchup nightmare for Detroit if Aidan Hutchinson isn't able to generate pressure.

Give me the Panthers in their first Sunday night game in what seems like forever.

PREDICTION: PANTHERS 31, LIONS 27

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MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

ATLANTA FALCONS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Monday, October 5 | 5:15 PM PT | ESPN

Line: Saints -3 | O/U: 48.5

Weather: Climate-controlled dome at Caesars Superdome.

The 20th anniversary of the Steve Gleason blocked punt will have the Superdome rocking and rolling.

The Falcons better have their silent count ready, because that crowd is gonna be crazy.

If the Dirty Birds can move the ball like they did versus the Pack last week, which I think they will, there should be a plethora of points in this one.

This one should be fun.

Shout out to the NFC South for the primetime games this week. Let's see what ya guys got.

PREDICTION: FALCONS 31, SAINTS 30

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Thirteen best bets, sixteen games, and one CEO who is absolutely going to hear about it if the Browns cover.

See you Sunday.

— Justin Tapp | The Sizzlin CEO