NFL Week 3 Predictions & Best Bets

Two weeks down, and the NFL has already decided that absolutely nothing is going according to plan.

The Chargers are 0-2.

The Raiders are 2-0.

The defending champs are suffocating people.

The Bengals apparently discovered defense.

The Dolphins might not have one.

And somehow one of Houston or Indianapolis is staring at an 0-3 start after Sunday.

Welcome to Week 3.

We've got predictions for every game, final scores and, most importantly, The Sizzle — our favorite betting angle from each matchup.

Let's get into it.

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THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

ATLANTA FALCONS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS

Thursday, September 24 | 5:15 PM PT | Prime Video Line: Packers -6 | O/U: 44.5

Finally.

The Falcons get some competency at quarterback.

Michael Penix Jr. gets the start Thursday night, and Atlanta desperately needs him to provide some hope after an absolutely miserable 0-2 start.

Unfortunately, Lambeau Field isn't exactly the ideal place to shake off the rust.

Green Bay could very easily be 0-2 itself if not for its fourth-quarter comeback against a tough Jets team. The Packers have made plenty of mistakes through two weeks, but there's still a good football team buried underneath them.

I expect Green Bay to control this game from beginning to end while Penix looks like a quarterback making his first start of the season.

PREDICTION: PACKERS 26, FALCONS 10

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SUNDAY EARLY WINDOW

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS @ BUFFALO BILLS

10:00 AM PT | FOX Line: Bills -7 | O/U: 50.5

I'm 100% positive the schedule makers didn't expect the Chargers to arrive in Buffalo at 0-2.

What an absolutely disastrous start.

Some people — myself included — had Los Angeles winning the AFC West.

That prediction isn't looking particularly great with Kansas City and Las Vegas both starting 2-0.

And now?

You get Buffalo.

In the house Josh Allen built.

Against a Bills offense scoring touchdowns on half of its possessions through two weeks.

Yikes.

This is about as bad a matchup as you could ask for when you're desperately trying to save your season.

PREDICTION: BILLS 31, CHARGERS 17

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CAROLINA PANTHERS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS

10:00 AM PT | FOX Line: Panthers -2.5 | O/U: 42.5

Which Carolina defense is real?

The one Chicago dismantled in Week 1?

Or the one that held Atlanta to three points in Week 2?

I'm leaning toward the latter being closer to reality.

Meanwhile, Cleveland was able to steal one in Tampa and salvage its back-to-back Florida trip.

Good win.

I'm still not buying the Browns.

The metrics I use to analyze these games continue to favor Carolina, and I think the Panthers are still undervalued by the market.

That won't last forever.

Bet on them while you can.

PREDICTION: PANTHERS 24, BROWNS 17

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NEW YORK JETS @ DETROIT LIONS

10:00 AM PT | FOX Line: Lions -6.5 | O/U: 47.5

Detroit got Josh Allen'd Thursday night.

Sometimes that's the analysis.

The Lions scored 31 points and still never really felt like they were in control.

Meanwhile, the Jets let Green Bay score 10 unanswered in the fourth quarter before eventually losing in overtime.

But don't overlook how much New York has improved.

The Jets defense has quietly been excellent, allowing just 4.7 yards per passing attempt, and Aaron Glenn returning to Detroit adds another fascinating layer to this matchup.

Glenn has been calling his own plays this season, and he knows this Lions organization extremely well.

I think Detroit wins.

I don't think they run away with it.

PREDICTION: LIONS 23, JETS 20

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HOUSTON TEXANS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

10:00 AM PT | CBS Line: Texans -2.5 | O/U: 43.5

Barring a tie, somebody is leaving this game 0-3.

That's wild.

Indianapolis looked significantly better Sunday night and nearly pulled off the upset against Kansas City.

Houston?

Honestly, they look like the same old Texans.

Plenty of talent.

Plenty of opportunities.

And somehow they still can't take that next step.

It kind of sounds like being a Mariners fan.

Houston leads the league in offensive plays per game, so the opportunities are there. Eventually those possessions have to turn into points.

I think this is the week it finally happens.

PREDICTION: TEXANS 24, COLTS 20

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KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS

10:00 AM PT | CBS Line: Chiefs -11.5 | O/U: 45.5

The Chieeeeeefs are back, America.

Deal with it.

Kansas City has quickly reminded everyone just how dangerous this team is when healthy.

And Miami?

Oh boy.

The Dolphins are the only defense in football without a sack through two weeks and are hitting opposing quarterbacks on only 7.7% of their dropbacks.

Now Patrick Mahomes comes to town.

Good luck.

Kenneth Walker has been an absolute stud, and I expect Kansas City to run the football successfully here.

But honestly?

Miami's defense has been so bad that it's difficult to pinpoint exactly how Kansas City attacks it.

The answer might simply be:

However they want.

PREDICTION: CHIEFS 38, DOLPHINS 10

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TENNESSEE TITANS @ NEW YORK GIANTS

10:00 AM PT | CBS Line: Giants -3 | O/U: 40.5

Tennessee almost pulled off the upset against Philadelphia.

The Titans defense kept the Eagles in check for most of the afternoon and forced Jalen Hurts to beat them through the air.

Now they get a Giants team entering panic mode.

Jaxson Dart was injured against the Rams, leaving New York's season potentially resting on the shoulders of Jameis Winston.

Winston looked terrible against Los Angeles.

And now Robert Saleh gets to prepare his defense for him?

He might be licking his chops.

Tennessee hasn't been good offensively.

But I trust its defense more than I trust the current Giants offense.

PREDICTION: TITANS 23, GIANTS 17

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CINCINNATI BENGALS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS

10:00 AM PT | CBS Line: Bengals -3.5 | O/U: 42.5

Joe Burrow and the Bengals are 2-0.

Again.

But this time there's one enormous difference.

They have a defense.

Cincinnati currently owns one of the best defenses in football by EPA and is tied for the league lead with eight sacks.

That's terrifying when Joe Burrow is your quarterback.

Pittsburgh, meanwhile, just got completely demoralized by New England.

And what is going on with DK Metcalf?

His confidence looks shot, and Pittsburgh's passing offense is averaging just 5.0 yards per attempt, worst in the NFL.

I genuinely think Pittsburgh might need a defensive touchdown to win this game.

That ain't happening.

PREDICTION: BENGALS 26, STEELERS 13

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SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

10:00 AM PT | FOX Line: Seahawks -7 | O/U: 40.5

Seattle reminded the rest of the NFL why they're the champs.

Drew Lock practiced with the ones all week, stepped into the starting lineup and Seattle didn't miss a beat.

The Seahawks put the boa-constrictor squeeze on Arizona.

That's the best way to describe this defense.

Seattle squeezes you from every direction for 60 minutes.

No explosive plays.

No easy throws.

Constant pressure.

Eventually?

You make a mistake.

That seems like a pretty terrible omen for Marcus Mariota and a Washington offense now tasked with trying to find its first victory against the defending champs.

Good luck.

PREDICTION: SEAHAWKS 27, COMMANDERS 10

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NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

10:00 AM PT | CBS Line: Jaguars -3 | O/U: 45.5

GAME OF THE WEEK ALERT.

Yes, it's September.

I don't care.

This game could have legitimate playoff implications when we get to January.

Jacksonville came crashing back to Earth against Denver last week.

New England?

The Patriots absolutely suffocated Pittsburgh.

The Pats are allowing just eight points per game, but I'm still waiting for their offense to completely find its footing.

That's where Jacksonville has the advantage.

I like Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars to bounce back at home in what should be an extremely competitive game.

And here's where I'll go against what we've seen statistically:

I think both quarterbacks play well.

Everyone sees two good defenses and expects a rock fight.

I'm expecting points.

PREDICTION: JAGUARS 27, PATRIOTS 24

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SUNDAY AFTERNOON

ARIZONA CARDINALS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

1:05 PM PT | FOX Line: 49ers -8.5 | O/U: 47.5

Arizona came crashing back to reality against Seattle.

And somehow?

The schedule gets worse.

San Francisco suddenly looks like the version we saw three years ago.

The Niners destroyed Miami, own the league's best passing offense by EPA and haven't allowed Brock Purdy to be sacked through two games.

Meanwhile, Arizona ranks near the bottom of football in explosive-play rate and has ended half of its possessions with a punt.

That's not going to work against San Francisco.

I expect points from the Niners.

Arizona?

Not so much.

PREDICTION: 49ERS 33, CARDINALS 17

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MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

1:05 PM PT | FOX Line: Vikings -1.5 | O/U: 42.5

Minnesota's defense looked absolutely dominant against Chicago.

Brian Flores had Caleb Williams rattled before Williams left the game, and the Vikings are hitting opposing quarterbacks on nearly 30% of dropbacks, the highest rate in football.

So Flores is going to blitz Baker Mayfield.

A lot.

I think that's a mistake.

Baker is one of those quarterbacks who sometimes seems to get better after you hit him a few times.

Keep sending pressure and he's going to stand in there long enough to hit Tampa's receivers downfield.

The Buccaneers are 0-2.

Their season isn't over.

But this feels pretty damn close to must-win territory.

Give me Baker.

PREDICTION: BUCCANEERS 24, VIKINGS 20

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BALTIMORE RAVENS @ DALLAS COWBOYS

1:25 PM PT | CBS Line: Ravens -3 | O/U: 52.5

Baltimore blew one against New Orleans.

Dallas took care of Washington.

Now we get one of the most interesting games of the weekend.

Dallas' offense has been absurd on third down, converting 68% of its opportunities.

The problem?

The Cowboys defense is allowing opponents to convert 71%.

That's dead last.

Now Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry come to town.

You see where I'm going with this.

I expect Baltimore to simplify things after last week's loss.

Feed Derrick Henry.

Control the game.

Make Dallas prove it can stop the run.

I'm not convinced it can.

PREDICTION: RAVENS 27, COWBOYS 20

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LAS VEGAS RAIDERS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

1:25 PM PT | CBS Line: Saints -3 | O/U: 44.5

The Raiders are 2-0.

DAHHH RAIDAHS.

And they're not doing it with smoke and mirrors.

Las Vegas currently owns the best defense in football by EPA per play, has eight sacks and is forcing 2.5 takeaways per game.

Klint Kubiak has the Raiders playing smart, disciplined football for what feels like the first time in years.

But New Orleans might be the league's biggest surprise.

The Saints are one two-point conversion away from being 2-0 and just walked into Baltimore and won.

Now they're coming home.

The Superdome is going to be rocking.

I like the Saints to make another statement.

PREDICTION: SAINTS 27, RAIDERS 17

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SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

LOS ANGELES RAMS @ DENVER BRONCOS

5:20 PM PT | NBC Line: Rams -2.5 | O/U: 45.5

The Rams got a little fortunate Monday night when Jaxson Dart left early.

Now we're going to learn considerably more about them.

Denver bounced back against Jacksonville, and the Broncos defense remains capable of making life miserable for opposing quarterbacks.

The question is Bo Nix.

Can he bounce back?

Can Denver generate enough offense?

And can the Broncos keep the Rams from hitting the explosive plays they've been generating at one of the highest rates in football?

This feels like a close, physical primetime game.

And I'm taking the home dog.

PREDICTION: BRONCOS 21, RAMS 20

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MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ CHICAGO BEARS

Monday, September 28 | 5:15 PM PT | ESPN/ABC Line: Eagles -4.5 | O/U: 41.5

Philadelphia catches a break here.

No Caleb Williams.

The question becomes whether Chicago's defense can keep this thing close.

Possibly.

Philadelphia hasn't exactly been blowing teams away.

The Eagles struggled much more than expected against Tennessee and have developed a habit of turning games that should be comfortable into four-quarter fights.

The extra day should help.

And ultimately?

Philadelphia simply has too much talent.

It might be ugly.

It might be closer than Eagles fans want.

But they should win.

PREDICTION: EAGLES 23, BEARS 16

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UPSET WATCH

TAMPA BAY OVER MINNESOTA

Minnesota's defense is going to bring pressure.

That's exactly what makes this interesting.

Baker Mayfield isn't afraid of getting hit, Tampa is desperate at 0-2 and I think the Buccaneers finally hit enough plays downfield to get their first victory.

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GAME OF THE WEEK

NEW ENGLAND AT JACKSONVILLE

This one might not have the star power of Baltimore-Dallas.

I don't care.

These are two teams that could spend the entire season fighting for AFC playoff positioning.

Jacksonville needs to respond after Denver.

New England needs to prove its defense isn't just beating up on struggling offenses.

And I think we're getting more points than people expect.

Jaguars 27, Patriots 24.

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FINAL THOUGHT

Week 3 is where desperation starts entering the equation.

The Chargers are staring at 0-3 with Buffalo standing in the way.

Houston and Indianapolis are fighting to keep their seasons from falling into an early hole.

Tampa needs a win.

Miami needs a miracle.

Washington gets the defending champs without Jayden Daniels.

And the Giants may already be turning to Jameis Winston.

Meanwhile, Buffalo, Kansas City, Seattle, Cincinnati, Philadelphia and Las Vegas all have opportunities to start 3-0.

We're only two weeks into the season.

But by Monday night?

A few teams might already be watching their season slip away.

Welcome to Week 3.

— Sizzlin Sports

Lines move. Check current odds before placing any wager. This is analysis, not betting advice.