Giants at Rams: Monday Night Football Preview, 3 Predictions and 3 Best Bets

Line: Rams -6.5 | Total: 47.5 | Moneyline: Giants +235 / Rams -290 Kickoff: 8:15 PM ET | SoFi Stadium | ESPN/ABC

Someone is leaving Monday night feeling very different about their season.

The Rams Flew to Melbourne last week and got punched in the mouth by San Francisco, losing 27-7 in a game where an offense expected to be among the NFL's best looked completely lost.

The Giants?

They entered Week 1 as three-point underdogs and walked out with a 28-20 victory over Dallas behind arguably the cleanest performance of Jaxson Dart's young career.

Now New York heads west with an opportunity to start 2-0.

Los Angeles is trying to avoid 0-2.

And the biggest name in the Rams' offense might not even play.

Let's break it down.

---

WHERE THIS GAME WILL BE DECIDED

Puka Nacua's Status Changes Everything

This is the first thing I'm watching.

Puka Nacua is officially questionable after missing both Friday and Saturday practices with a hip/groin issue.

And the betting market has reacted.

Nacua's individual receiving props have been difficult to find, Davante Adams' receiving line has climbed significantly from its opener and Matthew Stafford's passing-yardage number has dropped.

That's not insignificant.

If Nacua doesn't play—or plays at significantly less than 100%—the entire structure of this Rams offense changes.

Adams becomes Stafford's unquestioned No. 1 target.

Tyler Higbee and Terrance Ferguson become more important.

And most importantly?

Kyren Williams and Blake Corum should get fed.

---

THE GIANTS CANNOT STOP THE RUN

This is the matchup I expect Sean McVay to attack immediately.

The Giants were one of the NFL's worst rushing defenses in 2025, allowing 5.35 yards per carry and +0.122 EPA per rush.

They also surrendered 75 rushing plays of 10+ yards.

That's a gigantic red flag against Kyren Williams.

Williams averaged 73.6 rushing yards per game last season and cleared 63.5 rushing yards in 13 of 17 games.

His Week 1 numbers weren't impressive.

I don't care.

Los Angeles fell behind San Francisco early and got forced away from its ideal offensive script.

This matchup is completely different.

If Puka is limited or unavailable, McVay has every reason to hand the football to Williams and Corum and make New York prove it can stop them.

Until the Giants actually do?

I'm assuming they can't.

---

CAN JAXSON DART HANDLE THE PRESSURE?

Dart was excellent against Dallas.

23-of-29.

230 passing yards.

Three touchdowns.

Only two sacks.

He also added 54 rushing yards.

That's exactly what Giants fans wanted to see.

But now comes the follow-up.

The Rams generated pressure on roughly 32% of opposing dropbacks last season, while the Giants allowed pressure on approximately 31%.

And while Myles Garrett is on injured reserve, Los Angeles gets another pretty significant reinforcement Monday night:

Aaron Donald is back.

Donald is expected to make his season debut after sitting out Week 1.

Welcome to Monday Night Football, Jaxson.

Dart was sacked on 29% of the pressures he faced last season, producing a 9.3% sack rate across all dropbacks.

Week 1 was excellent.

But one clean game doesn't completely erase the larger sample.

How Dart handles pressure might determine whether New York can actually pull off the upset.

---

THE COVERAGE MATCHUP FAVORS LOS ANGELES

This is where things get interesting.

The Rams played two-high safety shells on roughly 52% of their defensive snaps last season.

The Giants ranked just 27th in EPA per play against two-high looks.

On the other side, New York plays Cover 1 and man coverage at an aggressive rate.

That's exactly where Matthew Stafford has historically been comfortable.

The Rams ranked sixth in the NFL against one-high looks last season, and Stafford was exceptional against the blitz, producing +0.361 EPA per dropback.

That's important because the Giants like sending pressure.

If Dennard Wilson gets aggressive Monday night, Stafford is going to get opportunities to make New York pay.

The question becomes whether he has enough healthy weapons to capitalize.

---

THE SITUATIONAL NUMBERS

Situation	Record
Rams as favorites of 6.5+ since 2015	36-7 SU, 23-20 ATS
Giants as underdogs of 6.5+ since 2015	12-45 SU, 31-26 ATS
Rams on Monday Night Football since 2015	5-8 SU, 4-9 ATS
Rams following a loss, 2023-25	13-6 SU, 11-8 ATS
Giants one-score games in 2025	1-7
Rams one-score games in 2025	4-5
Rams home games in 2025	47.0 average points — Under 5-3
Giants road games in 2025	51.6 average points — Over 6-3

There's an interesting story buried in those numbers.

Historically, the Rams win games they're supposed to win.

Covering them?

Different story.

That's exactly why Rams -6.5 makes me uncomfortable.

---

🔮 THREE PREDICTIONS

1. Rams 26, Giants 21

I think Los Angeles wins.

I don't think they cover.

The Rams should be able to establish the run and put Stafford in manageable situations, but the Giants offense is better than its 2025 reputation suggests.

New York averaged +0.369 EPA per play in Week 1 and converted an absurd 9-of-10 third downs.

That's obviously going to regress.

But even with significant regression, this offense should be capable of scoring three times against a Rams defense that allowed San Francisco to average 5.8 yards per carry.

Los Angeles gets its first win.

New York makes them sweat for it.

RAMS 26, GIANTS 21

---

2. Kyren Williams Tops 100 Scrimmage Yards and Scores

This is my favorite player matchup of the game.

Williams averaged roughly 90 scrimmage yards per game last season against normal NFL defenses.

Now he gets one of the worst rushing defenses in football.

Potentially without Puka Nacua.

In a game Los Angeles is favored to win.

Everything points toward volume.

I expect Williams to be heavily involved early and become even more important if Los Angeles gets a second-half lead.

100+ SCRIMMAGE YARDS + TD

---

3. Matthew Stafford Finishes Under 240 Passing Yards

Stafford threw for only 155 yards against San Francisco.

That obviously isn't his normal production.

But this isn't necessarily predicting another bad Stafford performance.

It's predicting the game script.

If Puka doesn't play, Los Angeles loses the receiver who commanded roughly a quarter of its targets.

If the Rams are successfully running against one of the NFL's weakest rushing defenses, why would McVay ask Stafford to throw 40 times?

Davante Adams will get his opportunities.

Higbee and Ferguson will get theirs.

But I think Los Angeles tries to win this game on the ground.

STAFFORD UNDER 240 PASSING YARDS

---

💰 THREE BEST BETS

1. GIANTS +6.5 (-110)

This is my favorite side.

The number has already moved significantly from where it opened.

And I understand why.

Los Angeles hasn't earned the right to be laying more than a touchdown against a Giants team that just beat Dallas.

The Rams have historically struggled against the spread as large favorites, their Monday night ATS numbers haven't been particularly impressive and their best receiver might not play.

Do I think New York wins?

No.

Do I think Jaxson Dart can keep this within a touchdown?

Absolutely.

🔥 BEST BET: GIANTS +6.5

---

2. KYREN WILLIAMS OVER 63.5 RUSHING YARDS

Sometimes you don't need to overthink it.

13 of 17 games over this number last season.

One of the league's worst rushing defenses.

Potentially no Puka Nacua.

Los Angeles favored by nearly a touchdown.

And a head coach who knows exactly where New York is vulnerable.

Williams' 41 rushing yards in Week 1 came in a game where Los Angeles fell behind and abandoned its preferred script.

That's the game to fade.

Not the baseline.

🔥 BEST BET: KYREN WILLIAMS OVER 63.5 RUSHING YARDS

---

3. MATTHEW STAFFORD UNDER 238.5 PASSING YARDS

The number has already dropped.

That means some of the value is gone.

But I still like the matchup.

Los Angeles' easiest path to winning this football game isn't Stafford throwing 45 times.

It's Kyren Williams.

If Nacua doesn't play, that becomes even more obvious.

And if the Rams establish an early lead, Stafford's passing volume could disappear quickly in the second half.

One important caveat:

If Puka Nacua is active and expected to play his normal workload, I'm staying away from this bet.

Otherwise?

Give me the under.

---

👀 LEAN — JAXSON DART OVER 33.5 RUSHING YARDS

Not an official best bet.

But I like it.

Dart ran for 54 yards against Dallas and has consistently shown a willingness to use his legs when the pocket breaks down.

Now he's facing a Rams front that should generate pressure.

That might actually help this prop.

Scrambles count.

Broken plays count.

And if New York falls behind?

Dart could be forced to create.

LEAN: JAXSON DART OVER 33.5 RUSHING YARDS

---

🚨 WHAT WOULD CHANGE MY MIND?

There are two injury situations I'm watching before kickoff.

PUKA NACUA

If Nacua is active and expected to play his normal snap count, I'm immediately less interested in Stafford's passing under.

It also makes Rams -6.5 considerably more understandable.

The entire ceiling of this Los Angeles offense changes when Puka is on the field.

DEONTE BANKS & MICAH McFADDEN

Both are questionable for New York.

If the Giants are missing significant defensive pieces, particularly in the secondary, Stafford's matchup gets much more attractive.

And considering how explosive the Rams offense was capable of being last season?

That's not something I'm interested in betting against.

---

🏈 FINAL CALL

The Rams are the more talented team.

They're at home.

They're coming off an embarrassing loss.

And they have one extremely obvious weakness to attack:

New York's run defense.

That's why I expect Los Angeles to win.

But 6.5 points is different.

Jaxson Dart showed enough against Dallas for me to believe New York can move the football, and if Puka Nacua isn't available, the Rams lose the player who makes their passing attack truly dangerous.

Los Angeles gets back on track.

New York makes them earn it.

FINAL PREDICTION: RAMS 26, GIANTS 21

🔥 BEST BETS

Giants +6.5

Kyren Williams Over 63.5 Rushing Yards

Matthew Stafford Under 238.5 Passing Yards — only if Nacua is limited/out

Monday Night Football should be a good one.

— Sizzlin Sports

Lines move. Check the price before you play. This is analysis, not betting advice. v