Monday night at Soldier Field, and the whole game changed on a Wednesday injury report.

Caleb Williams is out with a hamstring.

Case Keenum takes the snaps for Chicago.

That is the game. Everything else is a detail.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ CHICAGO BEARS

Monday, September 28 | 5:15 PM PT | ESPN/ABC

Line: Eagles -3.5 | O/U: 41.5

A BACKUP QUARTERBACK AND A 41.5 TOTAL

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL PREDICTIONS

Eagles vs. Bears: Case Keenum Won't Be Enough

Monday Night Football closes out Week 3 with the Philadelphia Eagles traveling to Chicago to face the Bears, and this matchup looks a lot different than it did when the schedule first came out.

No Caleb Williams.

Instead, Chicago turns to Case Keenum.

And while the Bears have shown some encouraging signs through the first two weeks, asking a backup quarterback to beat Philadelphia feels like a completely different challenge.

The Eagles haven't exactly looked dominant themselves.

They've been inconsistent offensively, haven't created a takeaway all season and barely escaped Tennessee last week.

But this feels like the kind of matchup where Philadelphia's talent eventually takes over.

I'm expecting a low-scoring game early. Then I'm expecting the Eagles to pull away.

Let's break it down.

---

CHICAGO'S PATH IS PRETTY OBVIOUS

Run the football.

Then run it again.

And probably run it some more.

Chicago enters Monday night averaging:

6.07 yards per carry

That's the best mark in the NFL.

The Bears were already 29th in pass rate before losing Caleb Williams, and now Case Keenum is starting.

There's absolutely no reason for Chicago to suddenly become pass-heavy.

Philadelphia's run defense has allowed 4.16 yards per carry, essentially league average.

If Chicago is going to win this football game, this is how it happens.

Control the clock.

Stay ahead of the sticks.

Keep Jalen Hurts standing on the sideline.

And prevent Keenum from having to throw the football 35 times.

Because if this becomes a game where Chicago needs its backup quarterback to chase points?

Good luck.

---

CASE KEENUM IS THE ENTIRE QUESTION

This isn't complicated.

Can Case Keenum do enough?

He doesn't need to throw for 350 yards.

He doesn't need to become Patrick Mahomes.

Chicago just needs him to avoid catastrophic mistakes and convert enough third downs to keep drives alive.

But Philadelphia knows exactly what's coming.

They're going to load up against the run.

They're going to force Keenum to make throws.

And eventually, he's going to have to beat them.

That's where I struggle with Chicago.

I don't think he can do it consistently for four quarters.

---

PHILADELPHIA HAS ITS OWN PROBLEMS

Let's not pretend the Eagles have been some unstoppable machine.

Philadelphia's offense is generating only around +0.052 EPA per play, and the rushing attack has actually produced negative EPA.

That's not what you'd expect from this offense.

The Eagles have also allowed six sacks through two games.

Chicago?

Also six.

Neither offensive line has exactly been keeping its quarterback clean.

Philadelphia is also the only team in the NFL without a takeaway.

Zero.

Through two games.

That's going to change eventually.

And a Monday night matchup against a backup quarterback feels like a pretty reasonable place for the drought to end.

---

THE CHICAGO PASS DEFENSE IS THE PROBLEM

This is where Philadelphia should have an advantage.

Chicago's pass defense is allowing approximately:

+0.168 EPA per dropback

That's bad.

And Philadelphia has the personnel to attack it.

The Eagles don't need to completely reinvent their offense Monday night.

Protect Hurts.

Take what Chicago gives you.

Stay patient.

And eventually the opportunities should appear.

My biggest concern with Philadelphia isn't whether it can move the football.

It's whether the Eagles can stop making games harder than they need to be.

---

WHY I LIKE THE UNDER

This is my favorite angle of the night.

UNDER 41.5

There are several reasons.

First, Chicago's offensive philosophy with Keenum should be extremely conservative.

Run the football.

Shorten the game.

Limit possessions.

Don't put the backup quarterback in bad situations.

Second, Philadelphia hasn't exactly been playing explosive offensive football itself.

And third?

This series has historically produced some ugly games.

The Under has hit in four of the last five meetings since 2015, with those games averaging only 39.4 combined points.

Now add a backup quarterback to the equation.

I don't need Chicago to be completely incompetent offensively.

I just don't see enough scoring possessions to get this comfortably into the 40s.

BEST BET: UNDER 41.5

---

THE SACK PROBLEM

Here's something both teams have in common:

They can't protect their quarterbacks.

Philadelphia has allowed six sacks.

Chicago has allowed six sacks.

Exactly the same number.

That's another reason I expect this game to be ugly.

Negative plays kill drives.

Sacks create third-and-long.

Third-and-long creates punts.

Punts burn clock.

That's exactly the type of game script we want if we're holding an Under ticket.

---

THREE PREDICTIONS

1. PHILADELPHIA FINALLY FORCES A TURNOVER

It has to happen eventually.

The Eagles are somehow the only team in football without a takeaway.

Monday night ends the streak.

Chicago has already given the football away three times, and Keenum is going to eventually have to make some throws against this defense.

I think Philadelphia gets at least one interception.

Possibly two.

---

2. CHICAGO RUNS THE BALL 30+ TIMES

The Bears shouldn't hide what they're trying to do.

Everybody in the stadium should know.

Chicago's best offensive advantage is its rushing attack.

The Bears are averaging more than six yards per carry.

Use it.

If this game remains within one possession into the second half, Chicago should easily reach 30 rushing attempts.

---

3. PHILADELPHIA PULLS AWAY LATE

I don't expect 27-13 to accurately represent how competitive the entire game feels.

This could easily be:

Eagles 10, Bears 7

late in the third quarter.

Then Chicago gets forced out of its preferred game script.

Keenum has to throw.

Philadelphia creates a short field.

Hurts takes advantage.

And suddenly a close football game becomes a comfortable Eagles win.

That's how I see this playing out.

---

KASEY'S BEST BET

UNDER 41.5

This is the strongest play on the board for me.

Chicago wants to run.

Philadelphia hasn't been explosive offensively.

Both teams have struggled in pass protection.

And the Bears are starting a backup quarterback.

Everything points toward fewer possessions and fewer points.

BEST BET: UNDER 41.5

---

KASEY'S SECOND BET

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -3.5

I'm not getting cute here.

Could Chicago cover?

Absolutely.

Could this game be uncomfortable for Eagles fans much longer than it should be?

Definitely.

But when it comes down to which team I trust to actually win the football game, it's Philadelphia.

The Eagles have the better quarterback.

They have the better overall roster.

And Chicago is asking Case Keenum to beat them.

I'll take Philly.

BET: EAGLES -3.5

---

WHAT WOULD WORRY ME?

Chicago dominating the line of scrimmage.

That's it.

If the Bears are consistently getting five or six yards on first down, suddenly this becomes exactly the game Chicago wants.

Long drives.

Short third downs.

Clock moving.

Hurts watching from the sideline.

And Keenum only needing to make a handful of meaningful throws.

That's Chicago's path.

Philadelphia has to take it away.

Force Keenum into third-and-seven.

Third-and-eight.

Third-and-nine.

Then go get him.

---

FINAL PREDICTION

Chicago is going to make this ugly.

That's exactly what the Bears should do.

Run the football.

Drain the clock.

Protect Case Keenum.

And hope Philadelphia continues making the same mistakes we've seen through the first two weeks.

I think that works for a while.

Then the talent gap takes over.

Philadelphia finally creates a takeaway.

Chicago gets forced into obvious passing situations.

And Jalen Hurts eventually puts the game away.

Case Keenum keeps Chicago alive.

He isn't enough to win it.

FINAL SCORE: EAGLES 24, BEARS 13

🔥 THE SIZZLE: UNDER 41.5

KASEY'S BET: EAGLES MONEYLINE

PREDICTION: PHILADELPHIA FORCES ITS FIRST TAKEAWAY OF THE SEASON

The Eagles move to 3-0.

The Bears fall to 1-2.

And Philadelphia leaves Chicago still searching for its best football — but undefeated while doing it.

— Kasey “BigSlick” Orr | Sizzlin Sports

Odds and prop lines can move before kickoff. Check current numbers before placing any wager.