NFL Week 5 Predictions & Best Bets

Let's pray to the football gods that Week 5 doesn't have the same amount of penalties Week 4 did.

I mean, were the NFL officials trying to hit a quota or something?

Per NBC Sports, there were 271 accepted penalties in the 16 games that took place in Week 4, with 12 different teams hitting double digits. The Seahawks and Chargers game had the most penalties with 30.

Why are these penalties bad?

BECAUSE THEY ARE BORING AND LIMIT SCORING.

Let's face it, the only people who were happy with these penalties were in Las Vegas, as the Bengals and Jaguars high powered offenses were called back on multiple explosive plays, thus limiting and hampering the scoring chances of both teams.

The total line for that game was set at 51.5 and never budged off it. Thanks to the penalties, the final score was Jacksonville 22, Cincinnati 17 — a whopping 12.5 points below the number.

I'll be the first to admit when a bet is bad, and there is no way in hell you can tell me that betting the over in the Cincy vs Jacksonville game last week was a bad bet.

NO PENALTIES = FUN.

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THURSDAY NIGHT

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ DALLAS COWBOYS

Thursday, October 8 | 5:15 PM PT | Prime Video

Line: Cowboys -8.5 | O/U: 47.5

Weather: Indoors at AT&T Stadium

The Cowboys will look to try and build off their epic comeback win on the road vs the Texans last week.

You gotta admit, all the Cowboys games have been pretty entertaining to watch this year, and they should — notice how should is italicized there — win fairly easily versus the woeful Bucs.

PREDICTION: DALLAS 27, TAMPA BAY 10

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SUNDAY MORNING IN LONDON

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES vs JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Sunday, October 11 | 6:30 AM PT | NFL Network

Line: Jaguars -7 | O/U: 42.5

Weather: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London

Jacksonville was able to win on the road in Cincinnati in a very hostile environment.

The Eagles choked away a 10 point lead to the Rams and Lane Johnson just retired mid-season. If you know any Eagles fans, this may be a good time to find them some psychiatric help.

The Jaguars boast one of the leagues best red zone defenses — five touchdowns allowed on seventeen trips inside the twenty, third best in football. That doesn't bode well for Philly and could spiral out of control quickly if Jacksonville can cause some turnovers.

I still think Philly's defense is good enough to at least contain the Jags.

PREDICTION: JAGUARS 27, EAGLES 10

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SUNDAY EARLY SLATE

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Sunday, October 11 | 10:00 AM PT | CBS

Line: Patriots -3.5 | O/U: 45.5

Weather: 70°F

DAHHHH RAIDAHS lost their first game in a nail biter to the Chiefs while the Pats somehow salvaged a win versus the Bills.

It will be interesting to see how the Raiders respond to their first loss under coach Klint Kubiak.

I think the Pats pass rush might be too much for Kirk Cousins to handle.

PREDICTION: PATRIOTS 23, RAIDERS 16

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CHICAGO BEARS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS

Sunday, October 11 | 10:00 AM PT | FOX

Line: Bears -3 | O/U: 45.5

Weather: 73°F

The Bears have proven they can win behind their solid defense and rushing attack.

Granted, their two wins without Caleb Williams came against the Eagles and Jets, but the Bears have established a solid identity and have let the league know just how physical they are.

Green Bay was able to get a win vs Tampa to help them stay alive. Unless their players miraculously got great at defending the run, the Packers might be in for a long day.

PREDICTION: CHICAGO 24, GREEN BAY 20

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HOUSTON TEXANS @ TENNESSEE TITANS

Sunday, October 11 | 10:00 AM PT | CBS

Line: Texans -7.5 | O/U: 37.5

Weather: 71°F, 49% chance of rain

The Texans might be the best 0-4 team to ever exist.

To be fair, three of their four losses have come by a single score — two, four and five points. However, if they wanted to be considered among the elite, they would have at least had one win by now.

The Titans defense has been the lone bright spot this year. Cam Ward needs a lot of help. This will be an ugly game for the Titans.

PREDICTION: TEXANS 27, TITANS 17

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CINCINNATI BENGALS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS

Sunday, October 11 | 10:00 AM PT | FOX

Line: Bengals -7 | O/U: 42.5

Weather: 91°F, 36% chance of rain

Miami was able to keep it tight vs Minnesota, losing by five in a game they never led.

Meanwhile, Cincy shot themselves in the foot multiple times versus Jacksonville and still almost won. Honestly though, IDK what Joe Burrow was thinking throwing it short of the first down marker on their offenses last play. Kind of a bone head play from one of the best QBs to walk the earth.

I expect Cincy to come in here re-focused and amped up to get last weeks bad taste out of their mouth.

PREDICTION: BENGALS 31, DOLPHINS 20

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MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Sunday, October 11 | 10:00 AM PT | FOX

Line: Vikings -1.5 | O/U: 42.5

Weather: Indoors at the Caesars Superdome

I like the Saints to respond and catch the Vikings off guard.

Kyler Murray did not look good at home vs the Dolphins and I expect the Saints in the Superdome to wreak havoc on him.

Gimme the Saints in a bit of a blowout!

PREDICTION: SAINTS 27, VIKINGS 17

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CLEVELAND BROWNS @ NEW YORK JETS

Sunday, October 11 | 10:00 AM PT | CBS

Line: Jets -2.5 | O/U: 39.5

Weather: 69°F

If the season ended today, the Cleveland Browns would win the AFC North and host a playoff game as the 4 seed... wow.

Nobody predicted Cleveland to be 3-1, but Todd Monken has his players believing and playing with heart. Cleveland has gotten stellar QB play from Deshaun Watson and has rode him to late game heroics.

Meanwhile, the Jets just can't seem to shake the stigma surrounding their franchise.

I like Cleveland to continue their roll.

PREDICTION: BROWNS 20, JETS 17

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INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Sunday, October 11 | 10:00 AM PT | CBS

Line: Steelers -2.5 | O/U: 44.5

Weather: 67°F, 55% chance of rain

Aaron Rodgers late game drive to tie the game wasn't enough on Thursday Night as the Steelers squandered a major opportunity vs their division rival Browns.

The Colts on the other hand went back to their roots in London — 30 carries, 128 yards and three rushing touchdowns in a 30-13 win — and have quietly won 2 in a row.

Daniel Jones hasn't seemed like himself to start this year. Pittsburgh's pass rush might be too much for him to handle.

Give me the Steelers to bounce back.

PREDICTION: STEELERS 26, COLTS 17

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NEW YORK GIANTS @ WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

Sunday, October 11 | 10:00 AM PT | FOX

Line: Commanders -3.5 | O/U: 43.5

Weather: 68°F, 49% chance of rain

The Giants are 3-1!? No Jaxson Dart, no problem.

The Giants just pulled off a goal line stand for the ages to keep their playoff hopes alive — four straight incompletions from their own four with 22 seconds left, the last one picked off and taken 98 yards the other way. Meanwhile, the Commanders might get Jayden Daniels back — he is questionable — and hope he can instill hope and salvage the Commanders season.

The NFC East is ugly, and both of these teams still have realistic shots at a division title with how their schedules play out.

I like the Commanders in this one.

PREDICTION: COMMANDERS 27, GIANTS 21

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SUNDAY LATE SLATE

DENVER BRONCOS @ LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

Sunday, October 11 | 1:05 PM PT | CBS

Line: Broncos -3.5 | O/U: 42.5

Weather: 76°F under the SoFi canopy

Both of these teams were projected by many to be the number 1 and 2 in the AFC West.

YIKES.

Denver has been a victim of their schedule but the Chargers look like a lost cause. It seems like this team just gets hit with the injury bug every year. It might be time to look into their training methods or injury prevention.

Oh yeah, there will probably be a million Broncos fans at SoFi too.

Broncos roll.

PREDICTION: BRONCOS 20, CHARGERS 13

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SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Sunday, October 11 | 1:25 PM PT | FOX

Line: Seahawks -2.5 | O/U: 46.5

Weather: 59°F, gusting to 29 mph

OOOOOH MAMA!

We all knew the Seahawks would be here, but it's nice to see the Niners are off to a hot start as well. It makes this rivalry a lot more interesting.

The Niners have a lot of motivation coming into this one, considering the utter beatdown the Seahawks gave them in the divisional round last year, 41-6.

Both of these offenses have been absolutely rolling to start the season, with points coming in bunches, save for the first Seahawks game when Darnold was injured. Add in the fact that the new Seahawks offensive coordinator Brian Fleury has Niners roots and this game gets even more juicy.

The key to this game will be the Seahawks pass rush vs the Niners offensive line. In case you remember, Brock Purdy spent that playoff afternoon running for his life on 33 dropbacks.

The Seahawks appear to be more healthy compared to the Niners but Leonard Williams may be a potential game time decision.

Give me the Hawks to prove that last year wasn't a fluke, and that they still run the NFC West.

PREDICTION: SEAHAWKS 23, 49ERS 20

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DETROIT LIONS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS

Sunday, October 11 | 1:25 PM PT | FOX

Line: Lions -5.5 | O/U: 54.5

Weather: Indoors at State Farm Stadium

Both of these teams will look to shake off losses that ended on their final drives with chances to win.

Detroit's defense looks awful away from home — 36.5 points a game allowed on the road. I expect a lot of points in this game with a lot of yardage coming through the air.

Dare I say Jeremiyah Love breakout game? I do.

But give me the Lions to sneak away with a win.

PREDICTION: LIONS 31, CARDINALS 27

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SUNDAY NIGHT

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ ATLANTA FALCONS

Sunday, October 11 | 5:20 PM PT | NBC

Line: Falcons -3.5 | O/U: 43.5

Weather: Indoors at Mercedes-Benz Stadium

The Dirty Birds are rollin.

Atlanta has dominated their last two games, all thanks to a revamped running game and a healthy Michael Penix Jr. calling the shots.

Meanwhile, Lamar Jackson may be out for the Ravens. Still, even if the Ravens had Lamar, I still might take the Falcons.

Gimme the Dirty Birds.

PREDICTION: FALCONS 31, RAVENS 20

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MONDAY NIGHT

BUFFALO BILLS @ LOS ANGELES RAMS

Monday, October 12 | 5:15 PM PT | ESPN/ABC

Line: Rams -3 | O/U: 54.5

Weather: 68°F under the SoFi canopy

The Bills undefeated season came to an end at home versus the Pats in a gut wrenching first loss ever at Highmark Stadium. Of course it had to be the Pats right?

Meanwhile, the Rams were able to comeback and steal a victory from the Eagles in a sloppy game. The Rams have not looked like themselves and have been hit by the injury bug yet are still favored in this game.

I expect Sean McVay to keep the ball on the ground this game, which can lead to ball control.

I think Buffalo has more talent but my gut is telling me this will be a classic McVay coaching clinic vs Joe Brady and the Bills.

PREDICTION: RAMS 23, BILLS 21

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BYE WEEKS

Kansas City Chiefs and Carolina Panthers.

— Justin Tapp | The Sizzlin CEO