Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints: Three Predictions and Three Best Bets

Everybody else already played.

Carolina beat Detroit 32-26 on Sunday and sits alone on top of the NFC South at 2-2. Tampa Bay lost to Green Bay and is 0-4.

So tonight is simple.

The winner climbs back to 2-2 and ties the Panthers. The loser is 1-3 and chasing in October.

And I think the market has this one backwards.

ATLANTA FALCONS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Monday, October 5 | 5:15 PM PT | ESPN

Line: Saints -1.5 | O/U: 47.5

New Orleans opened this game as a 2.5-point favorite.

It's down to 1.5, with the Falcons sitting at +100 on the moneyline at DraftKings.

The money is moving toward Atlanta.

I'm moving with it.

ATLANTA'S SEASON STATS ARE A LIE

Here's the number everybody is going to quote at you tonight:

Atlanta is averaging 17.0 points per game.

Now let me show you where that number comes from.

Week 1 at Pittsburgh, Cooper Rush went 12-of-22 for 143 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions and took four sacks. Atlanta scored 13.

Week 2 against Carolina, Rush went 10-of-17 for 86 yards with zero touchdowns and two more interceptions before getting pulled for Jack Strand, who added another pick. Atlanta scored 3.

Two games. 229 passing yards. One touchdown. Five interceptions. 16 total points.

Then Michael Penix Jr. got the start in Green Bay.

18-of-25. 256 yards. 10.2 yards per attempt. A 101.4 rating.

Zero sacks taken.

Atlanta won 35-14 on the road.

So when you see 17.0 points per game and 181.3 passing yards per game, understand what you're looking at.

You're looking at two Cooper Rush disasters averaged in with the only game this offense has actually played.

The Falcons have one quarterback on film. He's 1-0 and he put up 35 points in Lambeau.

THE RUN GAME MISMATCH IS ENORMOUS

Atlanta runs the football 34.7 times per game.

They're averaging 173.0 rushing yards per game at 5.0 yards per carry.

Tonight they get a New Orleans defense allowing 128.7 rushing yards per game.

And the Saints are walking into it without their three best front-seven players.

Kaden Elliss — out. Calf. He leads the team with 24 tackles.

Carl Granderson — out. Ankle.

Anfernee Jennings — out. Knee.

Pete Werner — questionable. Shoulder.

That's the linebacker room and the edge rotation.

Against a team that wants to run it 35 times.

Bijan Robinson went for 194 yards on 29 carries last week. His season line is 349 yards on 66 carries — 5.3 a pop. Brian Robinson Jr. is averaging 4.4 behind him.

I don't know how New Orleans stops this.

AND THE SAINTS CAN'T RUN IT BACK

Now flip the field.

Atlanta's run defense has allowed:

58 yards to Pittsburgh.

68 yards to Carolina.

17 yards to Green Bay.

That's 143 rushing yards in three games. On 52 attempts. 2.75 yards per carry.

Nobody has gotten anything on the ground against this team.

And New Orleans is trying to attack it without Travis Etienne Jr., who is on injured reserve and happens to be their leading rusher at 128 yards.

What's left?

Alvin Kamara, who has 51 rushing yards on 18 carries this season — 2.8 per carry. Kendre Miller, at 3.4 per carry. DraftKings has Kamara's carry line at 11.5.

The Saints' best rushing performance of the year was 148 yards against Las Vegas, and 36 of those came on one Tyler Shough scramble.

So New Orleans has to throw it.

Which brings me to the one thing they're genuinely great at.

TYLER SHOUGH AND CHRIS OLAVE ARE THE REAL DEAL

New Orleans is throwing for 305.7 yards per game.

Shough's three games: 410, 252, 255. Eight touchdowns, three interceptions, 917 yards.

His attempt line tonight moved from 32.5 up to 35.5, which tells you the book understands exactly what I just told you about their run game.

And Chris Olave has been a machine.

182 yards. 86 yards. 107 yards.

Twenty-seven catches, 375 yards, 125 yards per game.

Tonight he faces an Atlanta defense allowing 273.3 passing yards per game — the one soft spot on that roster — and doing it without A.J. Terrell Jr., who is on injured reserve with a groin injury.

Atlanta stops the run. Atlanta does not stop the pass.

New Orleans will move the football tonight.

I just don't think they'll finish enough of it.

KASEY'S THREE PREDICTIONS

1. PENIX'S SECOND START LOOKS LIKE HIS FIRST

The book is pricing Penix at 224.5 passing yards and 30.5 attempts with a passing touchdown line of 1.5.

That's a quarterback they haven't figured out yet.

He completed 72% at 10.2 a throw and didn't take a single sack against Green Bay. Now he gets a Saints pass rush missing Granderson, with Chase Young sitting on a 0.75 sack prop.

I don't need 300 yards from him. I need him to not hand the game away like Rush did twice.

Penix throws two touchdowns and Atlanta scores 24-plus for the second straight week.

2. NEW ORLEANS DOESN'T CRACK 75 YARDS ON THE GROUND

No Etienne. A 2.8-yards-per-carry back as the lead option. A defense that has allowed 2.75 yards per carry all year.

The Saints will try it early because they have to try it.

It won't work, and by the second quarter they'll stop trying.

New Orleans finishes under 75 rushing yards.

3. ATLANTA WINS THE RUSHING BATTLE BY 100-PLUS

173.0 per game against a gutted front seven, versus whatever New Orleans can scrape together against the best run defense in this game by a mile.

That's not a close comparison.

Atlanta out-rushes New Orleans by more than 100 yards.

KASEY'S THREE BEST BETS

1. BIJAN ROBINSON OVER 87.5 RUSHING YARDS

This is my favorite bet on the board.

DraftKings has Bijan at 87.5 rushing yards with a carry line of 18.5.

Atlanta has given him 21, 16 and 29 carries in three games. He's at 5.3 yards per carry on the season.

Do the arithmetic on 18.5 carries at 5.3.

That's 98 yards.

And that's before you account for the fact that New Orleans is missing its leading tackler, its starting edge rusher and another linebacker, with a fourth questionable.

The Saints are allowing 128.7 rushing yards a game with those guys.

He also doesn't need a monster night. He needs 88 yards. He had 83 in Week 1 against a good Pittsburgh front with Cooper Rush under center giving defenses zero reason to respect the pass.

Penix gives them a reason now.

BEST BET: BIJAN ROBINSON OVER 87.5 RUSHING YARDS

2. ATLANTA FALCONS +1.5 (-112)

New Orleans opened -2.5 and they're down to -1.5.

The Falcons are +100 on the moneyline, which means the market has this as a coin flip in a building where the home team is supposed to have an edge.

I'll take the hook at -112 and sleep fine.

Here's what Atlanta has going for it tonight.

They played Thursday, September 24 in Green Bay. That's eleven days of rest coming into this game. New Orleans played Sunday afternoon.

They have the best run defense in the matchup and the better run offense in the matchup. That combination wins games in October.

They have the healthier front seven by a wide margin.

And they have a quarterback upgrade so large that the entire national narrative about this team is still built on two games he didn't play.

New Orleans is 1-2 with a home loss to Las Vegas and a 31-30 overtime loss in Detroit. They're allowing 27.7 points per game. That is not a team you lay points with.

If you want the moneyline at +100 instead of the hook, I won't argue. I'm just taking the half-point because this game can absolutely come down to a field goal.

BEST BET: ATLANTA FALCONS +1.5 (-112)

3. CHRIS OLAVE OVER 84.5 RECEIVING YARDS

Three games. Three overs. Not one of them close.

182. 86. 107.

The number is 84.5, and it actually came down from 86.5 at open.

Olave is averaging 125 receiving yards per game and his reception line is 6.5 — the book expects seven catches. Seven catches at his 13.4-yard average is 94 yards.

Now stack the context.

Jordyn Tyson is on injured reserve. Etienne is on injured reserve, which takes checkdown volume out of the offense. The Saints cannot run the football against this defense.

Shough is going to throw it 38 times tonight whether he wants to or not.

And he's throwing at a secondary allowing 273.3 passing yards per game without its best cornerback.

Olave is the one New Orleans player I'm completely confident about tonight.

BEST BET: CHRIS OLAVE OVER 84.5 RECEIVING YARDS

THE TOTAL I'M STAYING OFF

Quick note, because somebody is going to ask.

The total opened at 45.5 and it's been bet up to 47.5.

My projected score lands at 47.

That's a half-point of edge, and a half-point of edge is not a bet. It's a coin flip with vig attached.

Both team touchdown lines are sitting at 2.5, which is the book telling you it sees two teams scoring two or three times each. That's exactly where I am.

Pass.

HOW I SEE THE GAME PLAYING OUT

Atlanta comes out and runs it.

Not cute. Not clever. Bijan on first down, Bijan on second down, Penix throwing on third down with a clean pocket because New Orleans doesn't have the bodies to pressure him.

New Orleans answers through the air, because that's the only door that's open. Shough finds Olave twice on the opening drive. Juwan Johnson gets involved underneath. The Superdome gets loud.

Then they hit third-and-4 and try to run it.

And that's where this game turns.

The Saints hang around on passing yards all night and come up short on scoreboard points, because every time they need four yards on the ground they get one and a half.

Atlanta grinds the second half. Bijan clears 100. The clock does the rest.

New Orleans gets a late touchdown to make it look closer than it was.

FINAL SCORE

FALCONS 27, SAINTS 20

BEST BET: BIJAN ROBINSON OVER 87.5 RUSHING YARDS

BEST BET: ATLANTA FALCONS +1.5 (-112)

BEST BET: CHRIS OLAVE OVER 84.5 RECEIVING YARDS

Three bets, three different mechanisms. The run game, the side, and the one guy on New Orleans who's been unstoppable.

If Atlanta's offensive line gets whipped and Penix turns back into Cooper Rush, I lose the first two together. That's the honest risk.

But I've got eleven days of rest, the best run defense on the field, a quarterback upgrade nobody has priced yet, and a Saints front seven held together with tape.

Give me the Falcons.

— Kasey "BigSlick" Orr | Sizzlin Sports

Odds and prop lines can move before kickoff. Check current numbers before placing any wager.