College Football Week 5 Predictions & Best Bets

Week 5 is here, and we're officially getting to the point where the contenders start separating themselves from the pretenders.

We've got undefeated teams going head-to-head, massive conference games, hostile road environments and several ranked teams walking directly into potential traps.

And apparently, I woke up this week choosing chaos.

Let's get into it.

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FRIDAY NIGHT

PITTSBURGH PANTHERS @ VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES

Friday, October 2 | 4:00 PM PT | ESPN

Line: Virginia Tech -3 | O/U: 54.5

What a treat we have to kick off Week 5.

Two undefeated teams. Friday night. Blacksburg.

Whoever wins this game should find themselves ranked afterward and emerge as one of the legitimate contenders to face Miami in what has become a wide-open ACC race.

Blacksburg hasn't been this excited about a football game since Michael Vick was taking the field.

Okay, maybe that's an exaggeration.

But this place is going to be LOUD.

I expect the crowd to be the difference and propel James Franklin's Hokies to a massive win at home.

PREDICTION: VIRGINIA TECH 31, PITT 27

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PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS @ NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS

Friday, October 2 | 5:00 PM PT | FOX

Line: Penn State -3 | O/U: 45.5

Northwestern nearly pulled off the upset against the defending champs in Bloomington last week.

Their reward?

Hosting one of the Big Ten's premier programs while opening their brand-new 35,000-seat stadium on national television.

That place is going to be absolutely juiced.

Northwestern is gritty. They're tough. And those kids are going to be desperate to become the first team to win on their new home field.

Meanwhile, Penn State is coming off a collapse against Wisconsin at home.

This feels like one of those games where Penn State walks in expecting to overpower Northwestern based on talent, and Northwestern punches them directly in the mouth.

I think the Wildcats punk 'em.

UPSET ALERT.

PREDICTION: NORTHWESTERN 27, PENN STATE 17

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SATURDAY

MICHIGAN WOLVERINES @ MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS

Saturday, October 3 | 9:00 AM PT | FOX

Line: Michigan -5.5 | O/U: 43.5

Iowa did the entire college football world a favor last Saturday when it knocked off Michigan with a touchdown on the final play of the game.

And as we predicted, Iowa was patient enough to play the field-position game.

It wasn't sexy. It wasn't explosive. It didn't need to be.

Iowa kept the game within striking distance and eventually made the play it needed to make.

Now Michigan has to walk into another hostile environment against a Minnesota team coming off an impressive beatdown of my Washington Huskies.

Minnesota's defensive line dominated Washington up front and forced the Huskies to become one-dimensional.

I think the formula remains basically the same this week.

Obviously, stopping Michigan's rushing attack is a much different challenge, and forcing Bryce Underwood to beat you through the air is easier said than done.

But Minnesota doesn't necessarily need to completely shut Michigan down.

They just need to make this ugly.

Control the line of scrimmage. Limit explosive plays. Keep it close into the fourth quarter.

Do that, and anything can happen.

I'm going one step further.

Give me the Gophers in a nail-biter.

UPSET ALERT.

PREDICTION: MINNESOTA 20, MICHIGAN 17

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ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE @ MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS

Saturday, October 3 | 9:00 AM PT | ABC

Line: Alabama -5.5 | O/U: 60.5

I still don't think the college football world is ready for the Kamario Taylor experience.

And honestly? It's kind of a bummer College GameDay didn't choose Starkville this week, because this place is going to be rockin' and rollin'.

The cowbells will be oiled up and ready to make life absolutely miserable for Alabama.

Mississippi State is going to need every single one of them.

Because Keelon Russell and this Alabama offense can put up some serious points.

That's what makes this matchup so damn interesting.

Alabama has the offensive firepower. Mississippi State has a defense that I think is being seriously undervalued. And State has the advantage of playing in what should be one of the most hostile environments in college football this weekend.

This game is basically a toss-up to me.

So screw it. We're going for it.

GIVE ME THE BULLDOGS IN A SHOOTOUT, BABY.

UPSET ALERT.

PREDICTION: MISSISSIPPI STATE 38, ALABAMA 34

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OHIO STATE BUCKEYES @ IOWA HAWKEYES

Saturday, October 3 | 12:30 PM PT | CBS

Line: Ohio State -14.5 | O/U: 45.5

If Iowa can limit the explosive plays, the Hawkeyes will have a chance.

That's obviously easier said than done against Ohio State.

But stylistically, Iowa has a formula that can keep this game uncomfortable for a long time.

Both teams are terrific at controlling the clock with their running games and limiting explosive plays defensively.

We saw Iowa execute that exact strategy against Michigan.

The Hawkeyes were perfectly content playing the field-position game, keeping the score low and waiting for an opportunity.

Then it came. Touchdown on the final play. Game over.

Expect the same philosophy against Ohio State.

Iowa's problem is actually winning the damn thing.

They're probably going to need a massive special-teams play, turnover or short field to create enough offense.

I think Ohio State ultimately survives.

I can see this being a seven-point game late before the Buckeyes put together one of those long, miserable, soul-crushing drives that ends with a touchdown with about two minutes remaining.

Ohio State wins. But Iowa makes them earn every inch.

PREDICTION: OHIO STATE 24, IOWA 10

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FLORIDA GATORS @ MISSOURI TIGERS

Saturday, October 3 | 12:30 PM PT | ABC

Line: Florida -5.5 | O/U: 57.5

Missouri better learn how to tackle. Fast.

Because if they don't, they're going to be in a lot of trouble.

Florida put the entire country on notice last week when the Gators beat the brakes off Ole Miss in The Swamp.

Now, there should naturally be some regression after a performance like that.

The problem for Missouri?

Florida has already shown us its offense can travel.

The Gators dismantled Auburn earlier this season, and I expect their rushing attack and playmakers to cause Missouri serious problems.

This feels like a game where Florida eventually imposes its will up front.

And if that happens, Jaden Baugh could have a monster afternoon.

Give me the Gators comfortably.

PREDICTION: FLORIDA 34, MISSOURI 21

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MIAMI HURRICANES @ CLEMSON TIGERS

Saturday, October 3 | 4:30 PM PT | ABC

Line: Miami -16.5 | O/U: 47.5

Somehow, someway, Clemson has risen from the dead.

The Tigers are 3-1 and now get an opportunity to play spoiler against what might be one of the best Miami teams we've seen in years.

Darian Mensah makes this Miami offense look damn near unstoppable at times.

Clemson's only chance is to muddy this thing up.

Slow the game down. Don't turn the football over. Don't give Miami extra possessions.

And whatever you do, don't let this turn into a track meet.

Because if it does? Goodnight.

Miami has immensely more talent.

But there's something about Dabo Swinney as a 16.5-point underdog at home that I can't ignore.

I think Clemson plays its ass off.

Actually, I'll get even more specific.

I think freshman quarterback Craig Reynolds plays fantastic football for most of the game.

Clemson hangs around. Death Valley starts believing.

Then Darian Mensah leads Miami down the field late and gives the Hurricanes the lead.

Clemson gets one final opportunity. Reynolds gets the football with a chance to become an instant Clemson legend, and finally makes the freshman mistake we've been waiting for.

Miami survives. Clemson covers.

And everyone watching needs a drink afterward.

PREDICTION: MIAMI 28, CLEMSON 24

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UPSET SPECIALS 🚨

We're not exactly playing it safe this week.

Northwestern over Penn State

Minnesota over Michigan

Mississippi State over Alabama

Three outright underdogs. Three home teams. Three opportunities for complete chaos.

Welcome to Week 5.

— Justin Tapp | The Sizzlin CEO