Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys: Three Predictions and Three Best Bets

Baker Mayfield is out.

Dislocated right thumb. Throwing hand. He's not playing tonight.

Jalon Daniels makes his second NFL start on a short week, on the road, in Jerry's building, with the Buccaneers sitting at 0-4.

And the market reacted the way you'd expect.

This line opened Dallas -3.5. It's Dallas -8.5 now.

I think that's too far.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ DALLAS COWBOYS

Thursday, October 8 | 5:15 PM PT | Prime Video

Line: Cowboys -8.5 | O/U: 48.5

Dallas is -470 on the moneyline at DraftKings. Tampa Bay is +360.

The total opened at 52.5 and has been bet down to 48.5.

So the book took four points out of this game and handed five of them to Dallas. All of it on the Mayfield news.

Now let me show you what Mayfield was actually giving Tampa Bay.

THE QUARTERBACK THEY LOST WAS NOT PLAYING WELL

Here is Baker Mayfield's 2026 season.

61-of-96. 615 yards. Two touchdowns. Two interceptions.

That's 205 passing yards per game.

His last two starts, the ones everybody has conveniently forgotten:

Week 3 against Cleveland: 21-of-34 for 182 yards, 5.4 yards per attempt, one touchdown, one pick, sacked three times. Tampa lost 23-19.

Week 4 against Minnesota: 17-of-34 for 217 yards, 6.4 yards per attempt, one touchdown, one pick, sacked six times. That's the game the thumb went. Tampa lost 23-16.

Nine sacks in two games. Two touchdowns. Two interceptions. Thirty-five points total.

Then Jalon Daniels got his first start Sunday against Green Bay.

19-of-27 for 148 yards and a touchdown. Two interceptions. Eight carries for 55 yards.

Tampa Bay out-gained Green Bay on the ground 141 to 86, held the ball for 30 minutes, and lost 17-14.

So the Bucs went from a quarterback averaging 205 yards and taking a beating to a rookie who produced 203 yards of offense with his arm and his legs and lost by three.

I'm not telling you Daniels is good. The two picks are real, and the book has his interception line at 0.5 and his passing touchdown line at 0.5 for a reason.

I'm telling you the drop from Mayfield-in-2026 to Daniels is not five points of spread.

TAMPA BAY DOESN'T BLOW OUT

Four games. Four losses. Here are the margins.

Six. Four. Seven. Three.

The Bucs have not lost by more than a touchdown all year. Not to Cincinnati, not to Minnesota, not to Green Bay.

They're allowing 24.0 points per game, and the run defense is the real deal: 78.5 rushing yards allowed per game. Green Bay got 3.4 yards per carry on Sunday. Minnesota got 78 yards. Cleveland got 44.

That matters tonight because Dallas cannot run the football.

89.5 rushing yards per game. Javonte Williams went 19 for 62 at 3.3 a carry against Houston. He went 12 for 30 at 2.5 against Washington. His 98-yard game against Baltimore is the outlier, and his rushing line tonight has already dropped from 75.5 to 71.5.

Dallas is going to have to throw to beat these guys. Which they will. But throwing teams score in chunks and stall in chunks, and that's how a bad team hangs around.

DALLAS CAN'T STOP ANYBODY EITHER

The Cowboys are 2-2, and one of those losses came at home to Baltimore, where they gave up 34.

They're allowing 28.0 points per game and 392.8 yards per game.

On the ground they're giving up 150.3 rushing yards per game. Washington ran for 182. Baltimore ran for 192. Those aren't typos.

And tonight they're down DeMarvion Overshown at linebacker and Cobie Durant at corner, both with hamstrings.

Now look at what Tampa Bay does well.

They ran for 137 against Cleveland. 141 against Green Bay. Bucky Irving is at 241 yards on 56 carries, and Daniels adds a legitimate running threat that Mayfield never did.

DraftKings has Daniels' rushing line at 45.5, and it opened at 40.5. The book is already moving toward what I'm about to tell you.

Tampa is going to run it on this defense. They're going to hold the ball. And they're going to be within a score in the fourth quarter, because that's what they've done every single week.

THE SHORT WEEK

Both teams played the early window on Sunday, so nobody has a rest edge.

Tampa Bay travels. That's the obvious strike against them.

But here's the part the market is missing. Daniels got thrown into Minnesota cold in Week 4 and went 0-for-3 with a pick. Then he got three days to prepare for Green Bay and was competent. Tonight is his second full week of first-team reps. Whatever he is, he's more of it tonight than he was Sunday.

On the other side, Dak Prescott threw it 45 times on Sunday behind a line that's missing Tyler Smith, who had thumb surgery and is on injured reserve, and Drew Shelton, who's out with a hamstring. Dak was sacked three times in Houston.

And CeeDee Lamb was targeted 21 times.

Twenty-one. On a short week. That's the Dallas offense right now: Dak to Lamb, and not much else.

Which is exactly why my other two bets are what they are.

KASEY'S THREE PREDICTIONS

1. DALLAS DOESN'T REACH 90 RUSHING YARDS

Tampa's front is allowing 78.5 a game. Dallas averages 89.5 and has one real back who was at 3.3 a carry on Sunday. Dak's attempt line is 34.5, and he's cleared it in two of his last three games.

This becomes a throwing game early.

Dallas finishes under 90 rushing yards as a team and Dak throws it 38-plus times.

2. TAMPA BAY RUNS FOR 130-PLUS

Dallas has given up 182 and 192 on the ground in two of its last three games. Tampa has put up 137 and 141 in two of its last three. Irving's carry line is 13.5, Daniels' is 7.5, and I expect both to go over.

Tampa Bay runs for 130 or more and controls the clock.

3. THIS IS A ONE-SCORE GAME IN THE FOURTH QUARTER

Six, four, seven, three. The Bucs don't get blown out, and Dallas doesn't blow anybody out. Their last four games: lost by eight, won by 17, lost by three, won by four.

Daniels will throw a pick. Probably a bad one. And Tampa will still be within eight with ten minutes to go.

Tampa Bay is within one score entering the fourth quarter.

KASEY'S THREE BEST BETS

1. CEEDEE LAMB OVER 81.5 RECEIVING YARDS

Last three games.

153. 112. 189.

Thirty-two catches on 38 targets. He's at 498 receiving yards through four games, which is 124.5 per game, and the line is 81.5.

This number opened at 77.5 and has already moved up four. His reception line went from 5.5 to 6.5. I don't care. He's averaging over ten catches a game in the last three.

Now the matchup. Tampa Bay is without Antoine Winfield Jr. at safety with fractured ribs and Benjamin Morrison at corner. That's a secondary already allowing 214.3 passing yards per game losing its best player.

And Dallas can't run on this front, so the ball is going to Lamb forty times whether Tampa likes it or not.

George Pickens sits at 61.5, and he's the better value if Tampa rolls coverage to Lamb all night. I'll take the guy with 21 targets.

BEST BET: CEEDEE LAMB OVER 81.5 RECEIVING YARDS

2. DAK PRESCOTT OVER 265.5 PASSING YARDS

Same thesis, different ticket.

Dak's last three: 279, 276, 335. Three straight overs on tonight's number.

Season: 1,065 yards, eight touchdowns, one interception, 266.3 per game. The line is 265.5, which is his average. The book is asking you to decide whether tonight is an above-average throwing night for him.

It is. Here's why.

Tampa Bay's run defense takes the ground game away from Dallas. The Cowboys' line is missing Tyler Smith, which hurts the run blocking more than the pass protection. And the Bucs are down two starters in the back end.

The honest risk is pressure. Tampa's front got three sacks on Minnesota and two on Cleveland, and Dak took three in Houston behind this same patched-up line. If the protection breaks, the yards come in 5-yard checkdowns to Williams and Ferguson instead of 20-yard shots to Lamb and Pickens.

But Dak threw for 335 behind the same line on Sunday. I'll trust the trend.

BEST BET: DAK PRESCOTT OVER 265.5 PASSING YARDS

3. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS +8.5 (-105)

Five points of line movement for a quarterback who was averaging 5.9 yards per attempt in his last two starts.

That's the whole bet.

Tampa Bay has lost four games by a combined 20 points. Their defense allows 24 a game. Dallas allows 28. The Bucs run the ball better than Dallas, stop the run better than Dallas, and are the healthier team up front on the offensive line.

The thing they don't have is the quarterback. Fine. Neither did they have one playing well for the last two weeks, and they lost those games by four and seven.

I think Dallas wins this game. I think Dak and Lamb have a big night. I also think Tampa runs for 130, holds the ball, and gets a late touchdown against a defense that gave up 30 to Houston and 34 to Baltimore at home.

Winning by nine against a team that doesn't lose by nine is a lot to ask for -115.

If you'd rather have the moneyline at +360, I understand it, but I don't love it. Daniels has thrown three picks in five quarters, and that's the version of this game where Dallas pulls away. The points protect you from that. The moneyline doesn't.

BEST BET: TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS +8.5 (-105)

THE PROPS I'M STAYING OFF

Jalon Daniels over 45.5 rushing yards. I love the matchup against a defense allowing 150 on the ground, and he got 55 on Sunday. But the book already moved this from 40.5, and a 21-yard scramble was 38% of his total. One long run in a sample of one is not a trend. Lean over, no bet.

Javonte Williams under 71.5 rushing yards. Everything I wrote says under. The number already dropped four yards, and if Dallas leads by ten in the fourth quarter he gets eight carries of clock-killing. Game script risk is why it's a pass.

Bucky Irving. There is no rushing yards line posted for him at DraftKings this morning. If one shows up near 60, I'm interested.

HOW I SEE THE GAME PLAYING OUT

Dallas scores early because Tampa's secondary is short-handed and Dak is going to Lamb on the first play he can.

Tampa answers on the ground. Irving behind Tristan Wirfs, Daniels keeping on the edge, a long drive that ends in a field goal because that's what this offense does in the red zone.

Daniels throws a pick in the second quarter. Dallas turns it into seven. It's a two-score game at the half and everybody on Twitter is laughing at me.

Then the second half plays out like every Buccaneers game this year. The run game keeps working. The Dallas defense can't get off the field. Tampa scores twice, Dallas scores once, and the backdoor is wide open with five minutes left.

Lamb clears 100. Dak clears 280. Tampa loses by a touchdown.

FINAL SCORE

COWBOYS 30, BUCCANEERS 23

BEST BET: CEEDEE LAMB OVER 81.5 RECEIVING YARDS

BEST BET: DAK PRESCOTT OVER 265.5 PASSING YARDS

BEST BET: TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS +8.5 (-105)

Two tickets on the Dallas passing game and one on the Bucs keeping it inside the number. They fit together: Dallas can't run, so Dak and Lamb get the volume, and Tampa can run, so the clock and the score stay close.

Where I lose all three at once is a Daniels meltdown. Three picks, short fields, Dallas up 24 at the half and Dak in a polo by the fourth quarter. That's a real outcome with a rookie quarterback. Size accordingly.

But the market just moved this line five points because of a quarterback who was getting sacked six times a game.

Give me the points.

— Kasey "BigSlick" Orr | Sizzlin Sports

Odds and prop lines can move before kickoff. Check current numbers before placing any wager.