NFL Week 1 Picks: Every Game, Every Score, Every Best Bet

By Justin Tapp

Football is back, and I'm not easing into it. Below is a pick for all sixteen Week 1 games, a predicted score for each, and the best bet I'd actually put money on. Lines are what was posted when I wrote this, so shop around. Let's go.

The card at a glance

Day	Game	Line	O/U	My score	Best bet
Wed 9/9	Patriots at Seahawks	NE +3	44.5	SEA 24, NE 17	Seahawks ML; Patriots team total under 20.5
Thu 9/10	49ers at Rams (Australia)	SF +3.5	48.5	SF 26, LAR 23	49ers +3.5
Sun 9/13	Bears at Panthers	CHI -3	46.5	CAR 23, CHI 21	Panthers +3; Panthers ML
Sun 9/13	Buccaneers at Bengals	TB +3.5	50.5	CIN 31, TB 28	Over 50.5
Sun 9/13	Saints at Lions	NO +7.5	49.5	DET 28, NO 17	Saints team total under 20.5
Sun 9/13	Bills at Texans	BUF -1	44.5	BUF 24, HOU 23	James Cook anytime TD
Sun 9/13	Ravens at Colts	BAL -3.5	47.5	IND 31, BAL 20	Colts ML; Colts team total over 22.5; Jonathan Taylor over 80 rush yds
Sun 9/13	Browns at Jaguars	CLE +8.5	40.5	JAX 23, CLE 17	Browns +8.5
Sun 9/13	Falcons at Steelers	ATL +3.5	41.5	PIT 22, ATL 17	Total field goals over 3.5
Sun 9/13	Jets at Titans	NYJ +1.5	38.5	TEN 24, NYJ 20	Geno Smith over 0.5 interceptions
Sun 9/13	Cardinals at Chargers	ARI +9.5	47.5	LAC 31, ARI 27	Over 47.5
Sun 9/13	Dolphins at Raiders	MIA +3.5	40.5	LV 20, MIA 13	Ashton Jeanty anytime TD
Sun 9/13	Packers at Vikings	GB +1.5	46.5	MIN 28, GB 17	Vikings ML
Sun 9/13	Commanders at Eagles	WAS +4.5	44.5	PHI 28, WAS 17	Saquon Barkley anytime TD; Eagles ML
Sun 9/13	Cowboys at Giants	DAL -2.5	47.5	NYG 23, DAL 20	Giants ML
Mon 9/14	Broncos at Chiefs	DEN +2.5	43.5	KC 20, DEN 17	Kenneth Walker over 60 rush yds

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Wednesday, September 9

Patriots (+3) at Seahawks, O/U 44.5

The season opens with a Super Bowl LX rematch. New England went out and got Drake Maye real weapons this offseason in Romeo Doubs and A.J. Brown, and I respect it. I still think the Seattle defensive line is too much for that offensive line to handle. Closer than the Super Bowl, same result.

Prediction: Seahawks 24, Patriots 17 Best bets: Seahawks moneyline, Patriots team total under 20.5

Thursday, September 10 (Australia)

49ers (+3.5) at Rams, O/U 48.5

On paper, the Rams have the best starting 22 in football. This is the NFL, though, and paper doesn't usually produce results right away. I also can't get past the Rams choosing to fly to Australia a couple of days before kickoff while the Niners went a week early, and Aaron Donald isn't making the trip. Every small detail that matters is leaning San Francisco. The Rams will be good. It might just take longer than people think, and Kyle Shanahan knows how to coach against Sean McVay.

Prediction: 49ers 26, Rams 23 Best bet: 49ers +3.5

Sunday, September 13

Bears (-3) at Panthers, O/U 46.5

Chicago is riding the 2025 hype wave into Charlotte. Don't be fooled. That Bears team got lucky in a lot of games last year, and Carolina added real pieces on defense. I'm taking the home dog outright.

Prediction: Panthers 23, Bears 21 Best bets: Panthers +3, Panthers moneyline

Buccaneers (+3.5) at Bengals, O/U 50.5

Sexy Dexy was brought in to fix the Bengals defense, and Dexter Lawrence is a massive upgrade against the run. The pass defense is still vulnerable, though. Good thing Joe Burrow is healthy. I expect a Week 1 shootout, and this might be the game of the week.

Prediction: Bengals 31, Buccaneers 28 Best bet: Over 50.5

Saints (+7.5) at Lions, O/U 49.5

The Lions have a bad taste in their mouth from how 2025 went. The Saints have more talent and a second year under Kellen Moore, but there are still growing pains coming, especially on the road in Week 1 against an experienced Detroit team.

Prediction: Lions 28, Saints 17 Best bet: Saints team total under 20.5

Bills (-1) at Texans, O/U 44.5

Both of these teams ended their playoff runs in a pile of turnovers. After five straight years of postseason exits, Buffalo fired Sean McDermott and handed the keys to Joe Brady, a longtime passing-game and offensive guru. Is that the shake-up that finally gets them to the Super Bowl? Week 1 is a real test against the league's second-best defense.

Prediction: Bills 24, Texans 23 Best bet: James Cook anytime touchdown

Ravens (-3.5) at Colts, O/U 47.5

I'm not sure where all the Ravens hype is coming from, especially after they moved on from John Harbaugh. Don't forget the Colts were 6-2 before Daniel Jones got hurt last year. I expect Indianapolis to pound the rock and walk away with a Week 1 dub, and don't be surprised if it's by double digits.

Prediction: Colts 31, Ravens 20 Best bets: Colts moneyline, Colts team total over 22.5, Jonathan Taylor over 80 rushing yards

Browns (+8.5) at Jaguars, O/U 40.5

Week 1 always hands us a surprise nobody saw coming, and this has all the makings of a trap game. I don't think Cleveland wins, but the running game and tight end usage should keep it close. If the upset hits somewhere this week, it might be here.

Prediction: Jaguars 23, Browns 17 Best bet: Browns +8.5

Falcons (+3.5) at Steelers, O/U 41.5

Hopefully Michael Penix Jr. is back soon, because it could be a long couple of weeks for the Dirty Birds with Tua Tagovailoa at the helm. It's great that Mike McCarthy is coaching Aaron Rodgers again, but I don't see either of these teams making noise. I honestly don't know how Kevin Stefanski landed another head coaching job, but he knows the Steelers well. Pittsburgh still comes out on top in a kicker's game.

Prediction: Steelers 22, Falcons 17 Best bet: Total field goals over 3.5

Jets (+1.5) at Titans, O/U 38.5

You can guarantee Robert Saleh was thrilled to see his old team on the schedule for his first game as Titans head coach. Expect Tennessee to blitz the crap out of Geno Smith and force him into mistakes.

Prediction: Titans 24, Jets 20 Best bet: Geno Smith over 0.5 interceptions

Cardinals (+9.5) at Chargers, O/U 47.5

I don't expect the Cardinals to stop the Chargers at all, but don't be surprised if this one is a lot closer than the number. I genuinely think Arizona would be a wild-card team if they didn't have to play the Seahawks, Rams, and Niners six times a year. The Cards had enough firepower on offense before adding Jeremiyah Love. This game will be fun.

Prediction: Chargers 31, Cardinals 27 Best bet: Over 47.5

Dolphins (+3.5) at Raiders, O/U 40.5

The Fernando Mendoza era will have to wait. Kirko Bangz leads the Raiders while Malik Willis gets his shot to prove himself in Miami. If the Raiders pound the rock and limit turnovers, which is priority one in the Klint Kubiak system, they'll be a lot more competitive this year.

Prediction: Raiders 20, Dolphins 13 Best bet: Ashton Jeanty anytime touchdown

Packers (+1.5) at Vikings, O/U 46.5

Can Kevin O'Connell rescue another quarterback from the scrap heap? So far it looks that way with Kyler Murray, who was named the Week 1 starter. Vikings fans have to wonder what could have been if they'd kept Sam Darnold over J.J. McCarthy. Seahawks fans are forever thankful for that decision. Green Bay comes in with questions at running back because of Josh Jacobs, lost Romeo Doubs at receiver, and is thin at linebacker. Give me the Vikings at home.

Prediction: Vikings 28, Packers 17 Best bet: Vikings moneyline

Commanders (+4.5) at Eagles, O/U 44.5

Looking at these two depth charts, I don't understand why this spread is only 4.5 in Philly's favor. The Eagles bring back the same offensive line that has been their best unit for years, and I expect them to get back to pounding the rock the way they did during the Super Bowl season. Long day for Washington.

Prediction: Eagles 28, Commanders 17 Best bets: Saquon Barkley anytime touchdown, Eagles moneyline

Cowboys (-2.5) at Giants, O/U 47.5

The John Harbaugh era is officially underway in New York, and I think the Giants surprise a lot of people this year if they stay healthy. I could see Harbaugh doing what his brother did in year one with the Niners and going from worst to first. Okay, maybe not worst to first, but I can see the playoffs. Dallas looks good too. This is a toss-up, but there's something intriguing about this year's Giants.

Prediction: Giants 23, Cowboys 20 Best bet: Giants moneyline

Monday, September 14

Broncos (+2.5) at Chiefs, O/U 43.5

Both quarterbacks come in off injuries. Bo Nix should be fully healed, considering he's younger than Patrick Mahomes. But don't count out Patrick. The Chiefs will be hungry and determined to show they still have some fight left.

Prediction: Chiefs 20, Broncos 17 Best bet: Kenneth Walker over 60 rushing yards

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That's the card. Sixteen games, sixteen picks, and I'll be tracking every one of them all season. If you want to fade me, the Bears at Carolina is where I'd start. Catch us live every Saturday at 9:30 AM, and get the full season predictions and model picks at SizzlinSports.com.