We Picked Every NFL Game. Here's How the 2026 Season Ends.

Justin (NFC North, AFC South) · Kasey (NFC East, NFC West) · Aaron (NFC South, AFC West) · Ethan (AFC East, AFC North)

From the What's Sizzlin' episode recorded Saturday, September 6, 2026, with Justin Tapp, Kasey "Big Slick" Orr, and guests Aaron and Ethan Reynolds.

Week 1 kicks off Wednesday with the Patriots at Seattle, then the Rams and 49ers play Thursday night in Australia. The Niners flew out a week early. The Rams are leaving about a day and a half before kickoff. Somebody in that travel office needs to update their résumé, and Big Slick is available for the job.

Before any of that happened, the four of us sat down and did something dumb and wonderful: we went through all 32 schedules, game by game, and picked a winner for every single one. Every division was assigned to one guy. He got the clicker, we got to heckle. The records below are what came out the other end.

Standard disclaimer from the room: none of this accounts for injuries. The Cardinals could go 2-15 or the Cardinals could win the division. Probably not the second one.

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AFC East (picked by Ethan)

Team	Record
Bills	12-5
Patriots	11-6
Dolphins	6-11
Jets	5-12

Buffalo wins the East again. The big question in Ethan's mind is whether they can hold together the offense from last season. Josh Allen gets a revenge win at Denver, drops one to Baltimore in a "humbling week," and rests everybody in a meaningless Week 18 loss to the Jets. Congrats to Buffalo on the new stadium, by the way. Still outdoors. Statue is smaller than we expected.

The Patriots are the surprise of the division at 11-6. Drake Maye "has been hard at work," and the schedule sets up beautifully. Ethan has them winning at Seattle on opening night, which Justin took personally. Then they beat Pittsburgh in Week 2 because the Steelers won't be ready for them, and they take a humbling loss at Chicago before bouncing back. Two 11-win teams in the East means one of them is a wild card.

Miami is a warm-weather team with a lot of cold road games late. Malik Willis is the new quarterback, fresh from Green Bay, so maybe he handles December better than most. That's the whole case. Ethan gives them one hot start at Las Vegas and a 6-11 finish.

The Jets are rebuilding. Again. It's a theme. Five wins, one of which is an upset in Chicago. The room's question: does 5-12 get them Arch Manning, or is it a little too high?

NFC East (picked by Kasey)

Team	Record
Eagles	12-5
Cowboys	10-7
Giants	10-7
Commanders	10-7

The NFC East is a weird one. Philly wins it at 12-5 despite going 1-3 in the division, because they rip off a 7-1 stretch after the bye. Kasey isn't worried about losing A.J. Brown. Makai Lemon replaces him, he's a speedster, and you've still got Jalen Hurts running and Saquon Barkley behind him.

Dallas does the most Cowboys thing imaginable. They start 3-0 with wins over the Giants, Washington, and Baltimore, and the motivation is hot. Then Houston shuts them out and, as with all Cowboys things, hopes and dreams die. They lose to Baker Mayfield coming home to Texas, steal a win in Philly, beat San Francisco in the "bust out the VHS" game, and go into Week 18 against the Giants needing a win for the division. Kasey can see them choking. Final: 10-7.

The Giants at 10-7 are the sneaky one. New coaching, Jaxson Dart, and Cam Skattebo. They lose the first two, then string together three straight wins after the bye and finish strong.

Washington is a Jayden Daniels question mark. If he stays healthy on that grass, they're 10-7. If not, well, RG3 and Joe Theismann were mentioned in the same breath, which is never a good sign.

Kasey's own caveat: the realistic ceiling is 11-6 for Dallas or Philly, and the bottom two are probably 8-9 or 9-8. Ten wins for all three is "the best of each of their seasons."

NFC North (picked by Justin)

Team	Record
Lions	12-5
Vikings	10-7
Bears	8-9
Packers	8-9

Detroit wins the North in a bounce-back year, and the whole room agreed. They finished fourth last season, so the schedule is soft, and Dan Campbell will have them running rampant. Jahmyr Gibbs runs all over everybody. Justin has them 10-2 at one point.

Justin actually has the Bears losing Week 1 at Carolina. Chicago came back from way down against bad teams last season, including a 20-point hole against the Giants, and he doesn't think the magic repeats. They're also a victim of the first-place schedule. The Ben Johnson vs. Dan Campbell game late in the year with playoff implications goes to Chicago, but they finish 8-9.

Minnesota at 10-7 raised eyebrows, since Kasey had them last. Justin's reasoning: Kyler Murray grew up a Vikings fan, so there's extra motivation, "as long as there's not a Call of Duty that comes out." There is. Also, Vikings don't do well in heat and humidity, so Tampa Bay is a loss.

Green Bay gets a trap loss at the Jets, sits 6-6 at the bye, then drops three straight. Josh Jacobs had a rocky preseason, Micah Parsons is still on PUP, and losing Romeo Doubs hurts more than people think. Does Matt LaFleur keep his job at 8-9? Nobody in the room was sure.

NFC South (picked by Aaron)

Team	Record
Saints	10-7
Panthers	7-10
Buccaneers	7-10
Falcons	4-13

Aaron called this the worst division in football and then backed it up. New Orleans is the only team above .500, and they get there after starting 0-2. The Tyler Shough experience wins the South. It's pronounced "Shuck." We checked.

Carolina starts 4-1, then hits a Week 5 bye and the wheels come off. The defense is legitimately better with Devin Lloyd and Jaelan Phillips, though losing Nic Scourton to an ACL hurts. Bryce Young still can barely see over his offensive line. Seattle made the Panthers take a knee in their own stadium last year, and Aaron isn't pretending that game goes differently.

Tampa Bay beats Pittsburgh (sorry, Ethan) and Dallas, then drops back-to-back games at Carolina and against Atlanta, and finishes 7-10.

Atlanta is in trouble. Aaron doesn't think Michael Penix Jr. is ready. His suggested fixes, in order: call Tom Brady, call Philip Rivers, call someone. They lose their first seven, get their first win at Tampa, and by the bye week the room's advice was to lose out for Arch Manning. One underrated stat that came up here and hurt Atlanta and Carolina both: Lamar Jackson has lost to an NFC team once since becoming a starter.

AFC North (picked by Ethan)

Team	Record
Bengals	12-5
Ravens	11-6
Steelers	9-8
Browns	5-12

Cincinnati is "bringing the boom." They traded for Dexter Lawrence, so they can stop the run, and Joe Burrow finally has protection. Ethan has them beating Baltimore in the first meeting on the strength of fantasy draft position: Ja'Marr Chase went in the first round, Derrick Henry went top of the second, science is settled.

Baltimore finishes 11-6 with a surprise loss to Tennessee and a season-ending "consistent choke" at Pittsburgh. Kasey doesn't understand the Ravens hype. They're around +800 for the Super Bowl and he thinks they get clapped the moment they run into Denver or Kansas City. The Bengals are the best team in that division and everyone agreed.

Pittsburgh has a new head coach, a rotating cast at quarterback, and, per Ethan, "another 9-8 season." Justin's description of the Steelers: switching from Wonder Bread to a different brand of white bread.

Cleveland goes 5-12. Nobody at the table knows who the quarterback is, and Ethan's position was that it doesn't matter. Their wins come against the Jets, the Raiders, and Indianapolis.

AFC South (picked by Justin)

Team	Record
Colts	12-5
Jaguars	11-6
Texans	9-8
Titans	5-12

Indianapolis is Justin's division winner. The Colts were 6-2 last year before Daniel Jones got hurt, and this season Jonathan Taylor steamrolls people behind a favorable schedule. Does Jones stay healthy all year? Justin says yes. Does Taylor? Yes. Does Jim Irsay's daughter? Also yes.

Jacksonville is a wild card at 11-6, and Justin has them 6-3 out of the gate. Week 18 at home against the Colts is the division title game, and he thinks Indy rests starters and hands it over anyway.

Houston at 9-8 is "another victim of the schedule." C.J. Stroud's new haircut, unfortunately, doesn't do anything for his arm. Justin still thinks they have the best defense in the league even after Aaron Donald came back for the Rams. Week 1 against Buffalo is a loss, but they bounce back against Cincinnati.

Tennessee goes 0-6 in the division, but Cam Ward makes noise. Justin has the Titans blowing out the Jets in Week 1, knocking off Baltimore, and beating Pittsburgh in the finale while Ethan looks away. Still, five wins means they're back in the draft-pick business.

AFC West (picked by Aaron)

Team	Record
Broncos	14-3
Chargers	11-6
Chiefs	10-7
Raiders	8-9

Denver is the number one seed in the AFC. Aaron opened with a road win at Kansas City in Week 1 and never looked back. They sweep the Chiefs, lose a 14-10 defensive slugfest to the Rams, drop one to Seattle at Mile High, and close the year 8-0. Kasey and Justin spent the whole segment insisting they'd lose somewhere. Aaron: "You guys are wrong."

The Chargers are the best team in the division nobody was going to pick. They go 1-5 in the division and start the year with an eight-game stretch against the Bills, Seattle, Denver, Kansas City, the Rams, Houston, and Baltimore, or as Aaron put it, "every playoff team from here to Canada." Then they win seven of their last eight and sneak in at 11-6.

Kansas City loses Week 1 to Indianapolis, goes 6-6 while Patrick Mahomes works his way back to being fully healthy, and finishes 10-7. This is where Mahomes "finally becomes Patrick Mahomes again," just later than usual.

Las Vegas has Kirk Cousins at quarterback, "pulling out all the stops," and Kubiak running the show. He knows how to win games. Not big ones. 8-9.

NFC West (picked by Kasey, under protest)

Team	Record
Rams	15-2
Seahawks	14-3
49ers	11-6
Cardinals	2-15

The greatest division in football, according to two of the four people in the room. Kasey is a 49ers fan and made it clear he was picking against his own interest.

The Rams go 15-2 and take the number one seed in the NFC. Their losses are to Buffalo and, in the regular season finale, Seattle. They beat Denver at home, get revenge in Philadelphia for last year's blocked field goal, and skip the bye week because they don't need it. The catch, and Kasey said it out loud: the Rams are +500 to win the Super Bowl, and the last team to win it at those odds was the 1994 49ers. Matthew Stafford's back is one bad hit from changing all of this.

Seattle goes 14-3 and still doesn't win the division. They start 5-0, beat the Niners, lose at Denver on a Thursday night, beat Kansas City, and take a strange loss to the Raiders in Vegas coming off the bye. Seahawks don't lose Monday night games. That rule was invoked more than once.

San Francisco starts 6-2, including a win over the Rams in Australia. Then the injuries show up, because they always do, and they lose five straight to the Rams, Chargers, Chiefs, and Eagles before closing against Arizona. Kasey still thinks George Kittle is a top-three fantasy tight end if he's healthy. He drafted him. Nobody was surprised.

Arizona wins two games. One of them is Washington. Kyler Murray is gone, the room joked about signing Philip Rivers, and the actual plan is to hand it to rookie Carson Beck by Week 12, mostly to find out what they have before they draft Arch Manning or Dante Moore first overall anyway.

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Playoff picture

AFC. Denver is the one seed at 14-3. Buffalo, Indianapolis, and Cincinnati all finish 12-5, so somebody's tiebreaker decides the two seed. The wild-card pile is deep: the Chargers, Jaguars, Ravens, and Patriots all sit at 11-6, with Kansas City at 10-7 on the outside.

NFC. The Rams are the one seed at 15-2, with Detroit likely the two seed at 12-5 over Philadelphia. Seattle is a 14-3 wild card, which is absurd. San Francisco is 11-6. Behind them, the entire NFC East is 10-7, along with Minnesota and New Orleans.

Super Bowl picks

Who	Matchup	Winner
Justin	Seahawks vs. Bengals	Wouldn't say. "Burrow scares me."
Aaron	Broncos vs. Rams	Broncos
Ethan	Broncos vs. Lions	Broncos
Kasey	Bengals vs. Rams	Bengals

Aaron thinks the Broncos finally get over the hump, and he's the same guy who had them 14-3 while everyone laughed. Ethan thinks Dan Campbell finally gets his piece of cake but agrees with Aaron on the AFC. Kasey wants a rematch of Super Bowl LVI, with a more experienced Joe Burrow burying the Rams this time. Justin's conspiracy theory for the year: the Super Bowl logo colors are blue and orange, and that always means something.

Both Rams believers in the room, Aaron and Kasey, think the Rams get there and lose.

MVP and Rookie of the Year

Who	MVP	Rookie of the Year
Justin	Joe Burrow	Fernando Mendoza, QB, Raiders
Aaron	Joe Burrow	Carnell Tate
Ethan	Drake Maye	Fernando Mendoza
Kasey	Sam Darnold	Carson Beck, QB, Cardinals

Kasey wanted somebody different from the Burrow crowd, thought about Stafford, and landed on Darnold. His Beck pick comes with a claim: even if he isn't the Week 1 starter, he takes the job early and has a starting gig somewhere next season. Ethan and Justin both went Mendoza partly because it's been really tough watching Nevada's home team be terrible.

Bonus: the party food draft

Once the Super Bowl was decided, we drafted the greatest party foods of all time, snake style, five rounds. Rules: no drinks, you're in charge of your own, and you can't vote for yourself.

• Justin: pizza (first overall), buffalo chicken dip, mozzarella sticks, egg rolls, queso and chips
• Kasey: nachos, jalapeño poppers, deviled eggs, veggie tray, cookies
• Aaron: buffalo wings (bone-in, correctly), pigs in a blanket, baked mac and cheese, chips and dip, cupcakes
• Ethan: bacon-wrapped jalapeños, cheeseburgers, chips and guac, fried pickles, loaded potato bites

There was a mid-draft trade when Kasey accidentally picked jalapeño poppers on Aaron's turn. The commissioner approved it. Ethan's party got the most love for the bacon-wrapped jalapeños and fried pickles combo, Aaron's got credit for balance and "cupcakes for the ladies," and Kasey voted for his own party despite the rule. Classic Niners fan. The deviled eggs were described as odd but irresistible, and honestly, that's fair.

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We'll be tracking every one of these picks throughout the season. Check the model scoreboard and weekly picks at SizzlinSports.com, catch us live every Saturday at 9:30 AM, and if you want to yell at Aaron about the Broncos, the comments are open.