THE FACTS — Tuesday night, Oct 6 · 2026-27 · Maple Leafs -162 / Predators 136, puck line Maple Leafs -1.5, total 5.5 · rest Predators 3 days, Maple Leafs 3 days
1. The line
DraftKings (via ESPN) has Maple Leafs -162 and Predators 136 with a total of 5.5. That prices Maple Leafs at about 61.8% to win and Predators at 42.4% (the two add to more than 100 because of the book's margin). The line has changed 1 time since first recorded today.
2. This season
- Predators: 1-1 this season; last 10 played 5-5, 3-7 to the over.
- Maple Leafs: 1-2 this season; last 10 played 1-9, 4-6 to the over.
3. The series (regular season, 2022-23 to 2025-26)
- Predators vs Maple Leafs: 3-5 straight up (n = 8), 2-6 on the puck line, 3-5 to the over. Predators at Maple Leafs: 0-4. Last 10: 3-5.
- 2025-03-22: NSH 5-2 TOR (total 7 vs 5.5)
- 2025-10-14: NSH 4-7 TOR (total 11 vs 6.5)
- 2025-12-20: NSH 5-3 TOR (total 8 vs 5.5)
4. The exact spot
- Predators on the road as the underdog since 2024-25: 18-43 straight up (29.5%, n = 61) against a league rate of 40% (n = 1641), p = 0.116; puck line 10-51; 23-38 to the over against 50.2%, p = 0.055.
- Maple Leafs at home as the favorite since 2024-25: 34-23 straight up (59.6%, n = 57) against a league rate of 60% (n = 1641), p = 1; puck line 43-14; 24-33 to the over against 50.2%, p = 0.235.
5. Live trends — both teams, the whole search disclosed
11 splits were scanned per team over 2024-25 to 2026-27 with a floor of 5 games. 11 cleared the floor for Predators and 11 for Maple Leafs. With 22 searched, about 1.1 would cross p = 0.05 by chance; the smallest p found was 0.02, which becomes 0.44 after correction — so the one that crossed 0.05 does not survive. Splits that describe this game's spot are listed first.
Predators
- on the road since 2024-25: 27-55 (32.9%) vs 45.7% league, p = 0.02 — fits this game
- on the road as the underdog since 2024-25: 18-43 (29.5%) vs 40% league, p = 0.116 — fits this game
- as the underdog since 2024-25: 33-65 (33.7%) vs 41.7% league, p = 0.124 — fits this game
- with 3+ days' rest since 2024-25: 18-25 (41.9%) vs 52.1% league, p = 0.222 — fits this game
Maple Leafs
- with 3+ days' rest since 2024-25: 29-23 (55.8%) vs 52.1% league, p = 0.678 — fits this game
- as the favorite since 2024-25: 52-38 (57.8%) vs 58.3% league, p = 0.915 — fits this game
- at home since 2024-25: 46-39 (54.1%) vs 54.3% league, p = 1 — fits this game
- at home as the favorite since 2024-25: 34-23 (59.6%) vs 60% league, p = 1 — fits this game
- 4 straight unders (through 2026-10-03)
6. Goalies
- Predators: J. Saros 2 starts (2 GA/game, .933). Last start: J. Saros on 2026-10-03.
- Maple Leafs: S. Bobrovsky 2 starts (3 GA/game, .887); A. Stolarz 1 start (1 GA/game, .963). Last start: S. Bobrovsky on 2026-10-03. Tonight's starters are not posted until the NHL confirms them, usually an hour or two before puck drop.
- Predators injury report: out — Justus Annunen (G).
- Maple Leafs injury report: out — Cade Webber (D), Dakota Joshua (C), Elvis Merzlikins (G), Max Domi (C), William Villeneuve (D). Injury statuses are ESPN's current report and can change before the game.
7. Props that stand out
113 props posted on 38 players; 30 flagged (a run of 4+ on one side of today's number, or 8+ of the last 10 on one side).
- Morgan Rielly shots on goal 1.5: under 6 straight; 8 of last 10 under (last 10: 2 over, 8 under; this season: 0 over, 3 under)
- Jonathan Marchessault points 0.5: under 7 straight; 8 of last 10 under (last 10: 2 over, 8 under; this season: 0 over, 2 under)
- Jake McCabe points 0.5: under 4 straight; 9 of last 10 under (last 10: 1 over, 9 under; this season: 0 over, 3 under)
- Nicolas Hague points 0.5: under 6 straight; 9 of last 10 under (last 10: 1 over, 9 under; this season: 0 over, 2 under)
- Ross Colton points 0.5: under 14 straight; 10 of last 10 under (last 10: 0 over, 10 under; this season: 0 over, 2 under)
- Chris Tanev points 0.5: under 6 straight; 9 of last 10 under (last 10: 1 over, 9 under; this season: 0 over, 3 under) Counts compare past games to today's number, not the number the player faced each time; the book set today's number knowing this history.
8. Totals
- Predators, 2024-25 to 2026-27: 70-96 to the over (42.2%) against a league rate of 49.4% (n = 5334), p = 0.063. Games average 6.1 against an average closing total of 6.
- Maple Leafs, 2024-25 to 2026-27: 88-79 to the over (52.7%) against a league rate of 49.4% (n = 5334), p = 0.396. Games average 6.4 against an average closing total of 6.1.