THE FACTS — Thursday night, Oct 8 · 2026 · Liberty Flames -13.5, total 52.5 · rest Sam Houston Bearkats 0 days, Liberty Flames 0 days
1. The line
DraftKings (via ESPN) has Liberty Flames -13.5 with a total of 52.5. The number has it at Liberty Flames 33–19.5. The line has changed 2 times since first recorded today.
2. This season
- Sam Houston Bearkats: 1-4 this season; last 10 played 3-7 (5-4 against the spread).
- Liberty Flames: 5-1 this season; last 10 played 5-5 (3-6 against the spread).
3. The series (regular season, 2023 to 2026)
- Sam Houston Bearkats vs Liberty Flames: 1-2 straight up (n = 3), 2-0 against the spread, 0-2 to the over. Sam Houston Bearkats at Liberty Flames: 0-2. Last 10: 1-2.
- 2023-10-05: SHSU 16-21 LIB (total 37 vs 46.5)
- 2024-11-29: SHSU 20-18 LIB (total 38 vs 47.5)
- 2026-10-08: SHSU 3-35 LIB
4. The exact spot
- Sam Houston Bearkats on the road as the underdog laying/getting 10-60 in conference games since 2024: fewer than 5 games — no split to report.
- Liberty Flames at home as the favorite laying/getting 10-60 in conference games since 2024: fewer than 5 games — no split to report.
5. Live trends — both teams, the whole search disclosed
How to read this: n is the number of games in the sample. p is the chance a record at least this lopsided shows up by luck alone against the league rate: under 0.05 is rare, above it is what luck produces all the time. When many spots are searched, some will look rare by chance, so a p-value has to survive a correction for how many were searched before it means anything. 18 splits were scanned per team over 2024-2026 with a floor of 5 games. 13 cleared the floor for Sam Houston Bearkats and 11 for Liberty Flames. With 36 searched, about 1.8 would cross p = 0.05 by chance; the smallest p found was 0.035, which becomes 1 after correction — so the one that crossed 0.05 does not survive. Splits that describe this game's spot are listed first.
Sam Houston Bearkats
- in conference games since 2024: 4-10 ATS (28.6%) vs 50% league, p = 0.18 — fits this game
- on the road since 2024: 4-10 ATS (28.6%) vs 48.6% league, p = 0.182 — fits this game
- under the current head coach since 2024: 5-10 ATS (33.3%) vs 50% league, p = 0.302 — fits this game
- on the road as the underdog since 2024: 3-7 ATS (30%) vs 48.1% league, p = 0.347 — fits this game
Liberty Flames
- as the favorite laying/getting 10-60 since 2024: 2-9 ATS (18.2%) vs 51.1% league, p = 0.035 — fits this game
- under the current head coach since 2024: 9-19 ATS (32.1%) vs 50% league, p = 0.087 — fits this game
- as the favorite since 2024: 8-16 ATS (33.3%) vs 51.2% league, p = 0.102 — fits this game
- at home since 2024: 4-10 ATS (28.6%) vs 51.4% league, p = 0.11 — fits this game
- 5 straight wins (through 2026-10-08)
Against the closing number. From a scan of 159 situational angles over 6,495 college football games (2019–2026); only the spots that held in both halves of the sample are listed, with the scan's record for each. A record is not a reason.
- No spot that held fits this game.
6. Coaches and who is out
- Sam Houston Bearkats under Phil Longo (since 2020): 3-14 straight up, 5-10 against the spread (33.3% vs 50% league, p = 0.302), 9-7 to the over over 3 seasons (n = 17); the program was 7-5 straight up, 7-4 against the spread in 2017–2019 before him.
- Liberty Flames under Jamey Chadwell (since 2023): 30-12 straight up, 18-23 against the spread (43.9% vs 50% league, p = 0.533), 21-20 to the over over 4 seasons (n = 42); the program was 31-15 straight up, 23-22 against the spread in 2019–2022 before him. As a head coach everywhere on file (Coastal Carolina Chanticleers too): 65-25 straight up, 43-45-1 against the spread over 8 seasons (n = 90).
- Sam Houston Bearkats injury report: nobody listed out.
- Liberty Flames injury report: nobody listed out. Injury statuses are ESPN's current report and can change before the game.
7. Props that stand out
No player props are posted for this game yet.
8. Totals
- Sam Houston Bearkats, 2024 to 2026: 12-16 to the over (42.9%) against a league rate of 51.2% (n = 4424), p = 0.451. Games average 49.7 against an average closing total of 51.4.
- Liberty Flames, 2024 to 2026: 13-15 to the over (46.4%) against a league rate of 51.2% (n = 4424), p = 0.707. Games average 52.1 against an average closing total of 52.4.