THE FACTS — Week 5 · Sunday, Oct 11, 2026 · 4:25 PM ET (1:25 PM PT) · Lumen Field (outdoors) · forecast 59°, gusts 15 mph, 2% precipitation · divisional · rest 7 / 7 days. History from the nflverse games file, 1999-2026. Current season through Week 4. Built Oct 5, 2026, 7:22 AM PT.
1. The line and how it moved
SEA -2.5 · total 47.5 · ML SF +124 / SEA -148 — DraftKings via ESPN, Oct 5, 2026, 7:21 AM PT. On file Oct 5, 2026, 7:02 AM PT: SEA -2.5 / 47.5, ML +124 / -148. The spread and total have not moved. No opener is on file, so "how it opened" is unavailable.
The Mind's line: SEA -4.5 · total 47 (49ers 21.3, Seahawks 25.7). Gap from the market: 1.9 on the side, 0.5 on the total. This is a rating-based baseline — non-garbage-time efficiency blended with last season, home field, nothing else. Against the closing line over 2024-2026 (2026 through Week 4) it went 180-186-8 on sides when the two disagreed by 1.5 or more and 204-201-3 on totals when they disagreed by 2 or more: a coin flip. The market's number is the better forecast; a gap of 3 or more is a reason to read on, not a reason to act.