THE FACTS — Week 5 · Sunday, Oct 11, 2026 · 9:30 AM ET (6:30 AM PT) · Tottenham Hotspur Stadium (outdoors) · non-divisional · rest 7 / 7 days. History from the nflverse games file, 1999-2026. Current season through Week 4. Built Oct 5, 2026, 7:14 AM PT.
1. The line and how it moved
JAX -4.5 · total 43.5 · ML PHI +180 / JAX -218 — DraftKings via ESPN, Oct 5, 2026, 7:13 AM PT. On file Oct 5, 2026, 7:02 AM PT: JAX -4.5 / 43.5, ML +180 / -218. The spread and total have not moved. No opener is on file, so "how it opened" is unavailable.
The Mind's line: JAX -6 · total 42 (Eagles 18, Jaguars 24.1). Gap from the market: 1.6 on the side, 1.5 on the total. This is a rating-based baseline — non-garbage-time efficiency blended with last season, home field, nothing else. Against the closing line over 2024-2026 (2026 through Week 4) it went 180-186-8 on sides when the two disagreed by 1.5 or more and 204-201-3 on totals when they disagreed by 2 or more: a coin flip. The market's number is the better forecast; a gap of 3 or more is a reason to read on, not a reason to act.