THE FACTS — Week 5 · Sunday, Oct 11, 2026 · 4:05 PM ET (1:05 PM PT) · SoFi Stadium (dome) · divisional · rest 7 / 7 days. History from the nflverse games file, 1999-2026. Current season through Week 4. Built Oct 5, 2026, 7:21 AM PT.
1. The line and how it moved
DEN -3.5 · total 42.5 · ML DEN -180 / LAC +150 — DraftKings via ESPN, Oct 5, 2026, 7:21 AM PT. On file Oct 5, 2026, 7:02 AM PT: DEN -3.5 / 42.5, ML -180 / +150. The spread and total have not moved. No opener is on file, so "how it opened" is unavailable.
The Mind's line: LAC -1 · total 41.5 (Broncos 20.5, Chargers 21.2). Gap from the market: 4.3 on the side, 1 on the total. This is a rating-based baseline — non-garbage-time efficiency blended with last season, home field, nothing else. Against the closing line over 2024-2026 (2026 through Week 4) it went 180-186-8 on sides when the two disagreed by 1.5 or more and 204-201-3 on totals when they disagreed by 2 or more: a coin flip. The market's number is the better forecast; a gap of 3 or more is a reason to read on, not a reason to act.