We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Our 1 highest-conviction calls out of 16 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
WAS
JAX
19
28
Offense
JAX
Defense
JAX
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Trevor Lawrence◄
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
Trevor Lawrence◄
0.05 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Montaric Brown
0.7 cover/gm
Nick Cross
0.5 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
0.05 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Montaric Brown
0.7 cover/gm
Nick Cross
0.5 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Kirk Cousins◄
-0.00 EPA/att
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Jeremiyah Love◄
no 2025 data
Tre Tucker
0.18 EPA/tgt
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers
0.22 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Bad◄
8.3% sack rate
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Budda Baker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Bo Nix
0.08 EPA/att
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
Jaylen Waddle
0.27 EPA/tgt
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Average
8.7% sack rate
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Aaron Rodgers◄
0.04 EPA/att
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Keeanu Benton
0.6 disrupt/gm
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Cameron Heyward◄
0.4 press/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Cody Barton◄
0.7 impact/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Alontae Taylor◄
0.6 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Brady Russell◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Average
6.4% sack rate
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Josh Jobe
0.6 cover/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Ty Okada◄
0.5 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Kyler Murray◄
0.02 EPA/att
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Breece Hall◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Garrett Wilson◄
-0.02 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Bad◄
10.8% sack rate
Caleb Banks◄
no 2025 data
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Jamien Sherwood
1.0 impact/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Josh Allen
0.11 EPA/att
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane
0.01 EPA/tch
DJ Moore◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich
0.34 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Good
7.4% sack rate
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Rashee Rice◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Average◄
7.4% sack rate
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Dalvin Tomlinson◄
no 2025 data
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley◄
0.8 impact/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Cam Hart◄
0.5 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb◄
0.20 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson◄
0.16 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Otito Ogbonnia◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Quinnen Williams◄
no 2025 data
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Dee Winters
0.8 impact/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin◄
0.3 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Michael Penix Jr.◄
0.01 EPA/att
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Drake London
0.18 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.
0.18 EPA/tgt
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Brandon Dorlus◄
0.8 press/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Caleb Williams
0.06 EPA/att
Jahmyr Gibbs
0.04 EPA/tch
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland
0.47 EPA/tgt
Good
6.3% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Grady Jarrett◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Montez Sweat
0.9 press/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
D.J. Reed◄
0.5 cover/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Xavier Woods◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
C.J. Stroud
0.08 EPA/att
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
MarShawn Lloyd
no 2025 data
Nico Collins
0.26 EPA/tgt
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz
0.29 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Average
5.1% sack rate
Average◄
5.6% sack rate
Tommy Togiai
0.4 disrupt/gm
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Keisean Nixon
0.7 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Average
6.4% sack rate
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Calijah Kancey◄
no 2025 data
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Yaya Diaby
0.9 impact/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Jacob Parrish◄
0.4 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens
0.6 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Deshaun Watson
no 2025 data
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Laiatu Latu
0.9 press/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jalen Hurts
0.05 EPA/att
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert
0.36 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.6% sack rate
Average
4.5% sack rate
Average
no data
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Jalen Carter◄
no 2025 data
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Ja'Marr Chase
0.19 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki◄
0.07 EPA/tgt
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Good
5.3% sack rate
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Calais Campbell◄
0.7 press/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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