We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Rhamondre Stevenson◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Average◄
8.7% sack rate
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Harrison Phillips◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Dane Belton◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Joe Burrow
0.08 EPA/att
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Ja'Marr Chase
0.19 EPA/tgt
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Good
5.3% sack rate
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Grover Stewart◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Dax Hill◄
0.5 cover/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Jordan Battle
0.7 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Tyleik Williams◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin◄
0.3 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Kyler Murray◄
0.02 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Nick Cross
0.5 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews◄
0.02 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Mason Graham
0.4 disrupt/gm
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Tyson Campbell
0.7 cover/gm
Nate Wiggins
0.7 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Malaki Starks◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Aaron Rodgers◄
0.04 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Derrick Brown◄
no 2025 data
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Payton Wilson◄
0.7 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Tyler Shough◄
0.00 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love◄
no 2025 data
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Chris Olave
0.19 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson
0.29 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
8.3% sack rate
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Josh Sweat◄
no 2025 data
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Denzel Burke
0.7 cover/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Budda Baker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Patrick Mahomes
0.10 EPA/att
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Rashee Rice◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce
0.32 EPA/tgt
Average◄
4.5% sack rate
Average
7.4% sack rate
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
George Karlaftis◄
0.8 press/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Drue Tranquill◄
0.7 impact/gm
Deommodore Lenoir◄
0.3 cover/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Kirk Cousins◄
-0.00 EPA/att
Tony Pollard◄
-0.10 EPA/tch
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Carnell Tate◄
no 2025 data
Tre Tucker
0.18 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers◄
0.22 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
8.9% sack rate
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Jonah Laulu◄
no 2025 data
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
Alontae Taylor◄
0.6 cover/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Amani Hooker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Michael Penix Jr.◄
0.01 EPA/att
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Drake London◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Gervon Dexter Sr.
0.7 disrupt/gm
Calijah Kancey◄
no 2025 data
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.◄
0.5 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.
0.6 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts
0.05 EPA/att
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Nico Collins
0.26 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz
0.29 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
Average
6.6% sack rate
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Average
no data
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Henry To'oTo'o
0.8 impact/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell
0.7 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship◄
0.4 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Caleb Williams
0.06 EPA/att
MarShawn Lloyd
no 2025 data
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland
0.47 EPA/tgt
Average
5.6% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Bo Nix
0.08 EPA/att
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins
-0.00 EPA/tch
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Good
7.5% sack rate
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
D.J. Jones
0.4 disrupt/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Dee Alford
0.8 cover/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Sam Darnold
0.11 EPA/att
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Brady Russell
-0.01 EPA/tch
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
0.47 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Average
5.3% sack rate
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Leonard Williams◄
0.8 press/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence
0.8 impact/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb◄
0.20 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Otito Ogbonnia◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Dee Winters
0.8 impact/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Omarion Hampton
-0.01 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Ladd McConkey◄
0.05 EPA/tgt
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Dalvin Tomlinson◄
no 2025 data
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Cam Hart◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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