We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Our 1 highest-conviction calls out of 16 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
DAL
LA
23
31
Offense
LA
Defense
LA
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Dak Prescott
0.15 EPA/att
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Dak Prescott
0.15 EPA/att
Matthew Stafford
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Elite
4.7% sack rate
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Poona Ford◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Quinnen Williams◄
no 2025 data
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Dee Winters
0.8 impact/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Cobie Durant◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
0.19 EPA/att
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Elite
4.7% sack rate
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Poona Ford◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Quinnen Williams◄
no 2025 data
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Dee Winters
0.8 impact/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Cobie Durant◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Jacoby Brissett◄
-0.00 EPA/att
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Jeremiyah Love◄
no 2025 data
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Bad◄
8.3% sack rate
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Denzel Burke
0.7 cover/gm
Dane Belton◄
0.5 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Malik Willis
0.13 EPA/att
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
MarShawn Lloyd
no 2025 data
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich
0.34 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Average
5.6% sack rate
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Tre Tucker
0.18 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers◄
0.22 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Bad
11.1% sack rate
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Quay Walker
0.9 impact/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Caleb Williams
0.06 EPA/att
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
James Cook III
0.04 EPA/tch
Rome Odunze◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland
0.47 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Good
7.5% sack rate
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Tyler Warren◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Cody Barton◄
0.7 impact/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Alontae Taylor◄
0.6 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Omarion Hampton
-0.01 EPA/tch
Mike Evans◄
0.06 EPA/tgt
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Average◄
4.5% sack rate
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Dalvin Tomlinson
no 2025 data
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Teair Tart◄
no 2025 data
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley◄
0.8 impact/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Cam Hart◄
0.5 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown
0.5 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Cam Skattebo◄
-0.05 EPA/tch
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Malik Nabers◄
0.04 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely◄
0.10 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Bad◄
8.4% sack rate
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Carson Schwesinger
0.9 impact/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dru Phillips
0.6 cover/gm
Grant Delpit◄
0.4 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Chase Brown◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Ja'Marr Chase◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Average
6.4% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Lee Hunter◄
no 2025 data
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Derrick Brown◄
no 2025 data
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Aaron Rodgers◄
0.04 EPA/att
Derrick Henry
0.02 EPA/tch
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
DK Metcalf
0.26 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Good
5.3% sack rate
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Keeanu Benton
0.6 disrupt/gm
Calais Campbell◄
0.7 press/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Payton Wilson◄
0.7 impact/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Tyler Shough◄
0.00 EPA/att
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Travis Etienne Jr.◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Calijah Kancey◄
no 2025 data
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Yaya Diaby
0.9 impact/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz
0.29 EPA/tgt
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Josh Hines-Allen
1.0 press/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Henry To'oTo'o
0.8 impact/gm
Montaric Brown
0.7 cover/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts
0.05 EPA/att
Brady Russell◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith
0.38 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner
0.32 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Average
6.6% sack rate
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Average
no data
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
DeMarcus Lawrence
0.8 impact/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Josh Jobe
0.6 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Ty Okada◄
0.5 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Michael Penix Jr.◄
0.01 EPA/att
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
-0.02 EPA/tch
Drake London
0.18 EPA/tgt
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Good
7.3% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Daron Payne
0.6 disrupt/gm
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Tim Settle◄
no 2025 data
Divine Deablo◄
0.7 impact/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Nick Cross
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Caleb Banks◄
no 2025 data
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
D.J. Reed◄
0.5 cover/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Patrick Mahomes
0.10 EPA/att
Rhamondre Stevenson◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce
0.32 EPA/tgt
Average◄
8.7% sack rate
Average
7.4% sack rate
Cory Durden◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Drue Tranquill◄
0.7 impact/gm
Carlton Davis III◄
0.4 cover/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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