We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Our 1 highest-conviction calls out of 15 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
TEN
DET
19
30
Offense
DET
Defense
DET
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Jared Goff
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Cody Barton◄
0.7 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Alontae Taylor◄
0.6 cover/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Amani Hooker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
0.14 EPA/att
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Cody Barton◄
0.7 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Alontae Taylor◄
0.6 cover/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Amani Hooker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Brady Russell◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Leonard Williams◄
0.8 press/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence
0.8 impact/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Josh Jobe
0.6 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Ty Okada◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Average◄
8.7% sack rate
Caleb Banks◄
no 2025 data
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.◄
0.4 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Bad
10.8% sack rate
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Will McDonald IV
0.9 press/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Jamien Sherwood
1.0 impact/gm
Riley Moss
0.8 cover/gm
Nahshon Wright
0.8 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Trevor Lawrence◄
0.05 EPA/att
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington
0.24 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker
0.6 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Lamar Jackson◄
0.04 EPA/att
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton◄
0.03 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Travis Jones
0.7 disrupt/gm
Calijah Kancey◄
no 2025 data
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts
0.05 EPA/att
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith
0.38 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Average
6.6% sack rate
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Average◄
no data
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Justin Herbert◄
0.02 EPA/att
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Tre Tucker◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers◄
0.22 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
9.5% sack rate
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Dalvin Tomlinson◄
no 2025 data
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
Cam Hart◄
0.5 cover/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
-0.02 EPA/tch
Nico Collins
0.26 EPA/tgt
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Average
5.1% sack rate
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Tommy Togiai
0.4 disrupt/gm
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Mike Sainristil
0.7 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Joe Burrow
0.08 EPA/att
Kenneth Walker III◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Ja'Marr Chase◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Average
7.4% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Dexter Lawrence II◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
George Karlaftis◄
0.8 press/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Dax Hill◄
0.5 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Brock Purdy
0.13 EPA/att
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Christian McCaffrey
0.04 EPA/tch
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Average
4.5% sack rate
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Kobie Turner◄
0.6 press/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Jaylen Watson◄
0.4 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Michael Penix Jr.
0.01 EPA/att
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Drake London◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Mason Graham
0.4 disrupt/gm
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Josh Allen
0.11 EPA/att
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
MarShawn Lloyd
no 2025 data
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid
0.58 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Average
5.6% sack rate
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Javon Hargrave
0.4 disrupt/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Greg Rousseau◄
0.7 impact/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Keisean Nixon
0.7 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Evan Williams
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Caleb Williams
0.06 EPA/att
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane
0.01 EPA/tch
Rome Odunze◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich
0.34 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Good
7.4% sack rate
Grady Jarrett◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Devin Bush
0.9 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.◄
0.3 cover/gm
Xavier Woods◄
0.4 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Tyler Shough◄
0.00 EPA/att
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Travis Etienne Jr.◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Lee Hunter◄
no 2025 data
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Derrick Brown◄
no 2025 data
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry
0.9 cover/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Justin Reid◄
0.5 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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