We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Our 1 highest-conviction calls out of 14 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
MIA
DEN
18
26
Offense
DEN
Defense
DEN
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Bo Nix
0.08 EPA/att
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
Bo Nix
0.08 EPA/att
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins
-0.00 EPA/tch
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Good
7.4% sack rate
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Nik Bonitto
1.2 impact/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins
-0.00 EPA/tch
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Good
7.4% sack rate
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Nik Bonitto
1.2 impact/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Sam Darnold
0.11 EPA/att
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Brady Russell◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Average
5.3% sack rate
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence
0.8 impact/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Ty Okada◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Patrick Mahomes
0.10 EPA/att
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Average
7.4% sack rate
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Poona Ford◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
George Karlaftis◄
0.8 press/gm
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson◄
0.4 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Kyler Murray◄
0.02 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Aaron Jones Sr.◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Tetairoa McMillan◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Josh Allen
0.11 EPA/att
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry
0.36 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Average
8.7% sack rate
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Greg Rousseau◄
0.7 impact/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Deshaun Watson
no 2025 data
Chase Brown◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Ja'Marr Chase◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki◄
0.07 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.
0.8 impact/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jalen Hurts◄
0.05 EPA/att
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Jeremiyah Love◄
no 2025 data
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Marvin Harrison Jr.
0.31 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert
0.36 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.6% sack rate
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Average
no data
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Quinyon Mitchell
0.7 cover/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Budda Baker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
MarShawn Lloyd◄
no 2025 data
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Chris Olave
0.19 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson
0.29 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.6% sack rate
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Karl Brooks◄
no 2025 data
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Keisean Nixon
0.7 cover/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
Caleb Williams◄
0.06 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Rome Odunze◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange
0.40 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Grady Jarrett◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Montez Sweat
0.9 press/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Devin Bush
0.9 impact/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Mike Evans◄
0.06 EPA/tgt
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Average◄
4.5% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Shelby Harris◄
0.2 press/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Justin Herbert◄
0.02 EPA/att
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Ladd McConkey◄
0.05 EPA/tgt
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Dalvin Tomlinson
no 2025 data
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Cam Hart◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
David Montgomery
0.02 EPA/tch
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
DK Metcalf
0.26 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington
0.24 EPA/tgt
Average
5.1% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Tommy Togiai
0.4 disrupt/gm
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Michael Penix Jr.
0.01 EPA/att
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Bijan Robinson
0.03 EPA/tch
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Drake London
0.18 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.
0.18 EPA/tgt
Good
6.3% sack rate
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Divine Deablo◄
0.7 impact/gm
D.J. Reed◄
0.5 cover/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jayden Daniels◄
-0.01 EPA/att
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Chig Okonkwo◄
0.13 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Daron Payne
0.6 disrupt/gm
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Tim Settle◄
no 2025 data
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Cody Barton◄
0.7 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Nick Cross
0.5 cover/gm
Amani Hooker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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