We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Our 1 highest-conviction calls out of 16 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
TEN
JAX
17
29
Offense
JAX
Defense
JAX
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Trevor Lawrence◄
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
Trevor Lawrence◄
0.05 EPA/att
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Bhayshul Tuten◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Carnell Tate◄
no 2025 data
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Bad◄
6.8% sack rate
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
0.05 EPA/att
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Bhayshul Tuten◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Carnell Tate◄
no 2025 data
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Bad◄
6.8% sack rate
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson◄
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Harrison Phillips◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Jamien Sherwood
1.0 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Dane Belton◄
0.5 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Grover Stewart◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Quinshon Judkins◄
-0.10 EPA/tch
Tre Tucker◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers◄
0.22 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Bad◄
8.4% sack rate
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
Carson Schwesinger
0.9 impact/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Grant Delpit◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jordan Love
0.18 EPA/att
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
MarShawn Lloyd
no 2025 data
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Christian Watson
0.38 EPA/tgt
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Average
5.6% sack rate
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Karl Brooks◄
no 2025 data
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Patrick Mahomes
0.10 EPA/att
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Rashee Rice◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce
0.32 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Average
7.4% sack rate
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Drue Tranquill◄
0.7 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Baker Mayfield◄
0.00 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard◄
-0.05 EPA/tch
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Tetairoa McMillan◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Average
6.4% sack rate
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
David Montgomery
0.02 EPA/tch
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Nico Collins
0.26 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Average
5.1% sack rate
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Tommy Togiai
0.4 disrupt/gm
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
Nate Wiggins
0.7 cover/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Malaki Starks◄
0.5 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Jacoby Brissett◄
-0.00 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Marvin Harrison Jr.
0.31 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Roy Lopez
0.4 disrupt/gm
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Odafe Oweh◄
0.7 impact/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Denzel Burke
0.7 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Caleb Williams
0.06 EPA/att
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jahmyr Gibbs
0.04 EPA/tch
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland
0.47 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Good
6.3% sack rate
Grady Jarrett◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Montez Sweat
0.9 press/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
D.J. Reed◄
0.5 cover/gm
Xavier Woods◄
0.4 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Michael Penix Jr.
0.01 EPA/att
Kyler Murray◄
0.02 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Drake London◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez◄
no 2025 data
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.◄
0.5 cover/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jalen Hurts
0.05 EPA/att
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Average
6.6% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Average◄
no data
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Dee Winters
0.8 impact/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba◄
0.4 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Sam Darnold
0.11 EPA/att
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Brady Russell
-0.01 EPA/tch
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner
0.32 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Average
4.5% sack rate
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Osa Odighizuwa
0.8 disrupt/gm
Leonard Williams◄
0.8 press/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Average◄
8.7% sack rate
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Dalvin Tomlinson◄
no 2025 data
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley◄
0.8 impact/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Cam Hart◄
0.5 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
J.K. Dobbins
-0.00 EPA/tch
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
DK Metcalf
0.26 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Good
5.3% sack rate
D.J. Jones
0.4 disrupt/gm
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Travis Etienne Jr.◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Chris Olave
0.19 EPA/tgt
Ja'Marr Chase◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Dexter Lawrence II◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Boye Mafe◄
0.2 press/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.
0.8 impact/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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