We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Our 3 highest-conviction calls out of 13 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
LV
DEN
15
26
Offense
DEN
Defense
DEN
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Bo Nix◄
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Tre Tucker
0.18 EPA/tgt
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers◄
0.22 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Quay Walker
0.9 impact/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
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0.08 EPA/att
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Tre Tucker
0.18 EPA/tgt
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers◄
0.22 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Quay Walker
0.9 impact/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Justin Herbert◄
0.02 EPA/att
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Ladd McConkey◄
0.05 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Bad◄
9.5% sack rate
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Dalvin Tomlinson◄
no 2025 data
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Josh Allen
0.11 EPA/att
De'Von Achane
0.01 EPA/tch
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
DJ Moore◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich
0.34 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Good
7.4% sack rate
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
CeeDee Lamb◄
0.20 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson◄
0.16 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Quinnen Williams◄
no 2025 data
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
Alontae Taylor◄
0.6 cover/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Amani Hooker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love◄
no 2025 data
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce
0.32 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Average◄
7.4% sack rate
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Drue Tranquill◄
0.7 impact/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
D.J. Reed◄
0.5 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts◄
0.05 EPA/att
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
DK Metcalf
0.26 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington
0.24 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Average
6.6% sack rate
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Average
no data
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Jalen Carter◄
no 2025 data
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Caleb Williams◄
0.06 EPA/att
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson
0.29 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Grady Jarrett◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Devin Bush
0.9 impact/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Justin Reid◄
0.5 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
C.J. Stroud
0.08 EPA/att
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
David Montgomery
0.02 EPA/tch
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Nico Collins
0.26 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Average
5.1% sack rate
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Laiatu Latu
0.9 press/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Ja'Marr Chase
0.19 EPA/tgt
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo◄
0.13 EPA/tgt
Good
5.3% sack rate
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Tim Settle◄
no 2025 data
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Nick Cross
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Trevor Lawrence◄
0.05 EPA/att
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Brian Thomas Jr.◄
0.14 EPA/tgt
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Bad◄
8.4% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Foyesade Oluokun
0.9 impact/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dru Phillips
0.6 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans◄
0.06 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Average◄
4.5% sack rate
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez◄
no 2025 data
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.◄
0.4 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Lamar Jackson◄
0.04 EPA/att
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Average
6.4% sack rate
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Derrick Brown◄
no 2025 data
Roquan Smith◄
0.7 impact/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Nate Wiggins
0.7 cover/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Malaki Starks◄
0.5 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
$9.99/mo
Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
$29.99/mo
All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.
