We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 1-2 · full slate 7-7 straight up
Our 3 highest-conviction calls out of 14 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
MIN
DET
19
29
Offense
DET
Defense
DET
Missed the winner
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Jared Goff
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Caleb Banks◄
no 2025 data
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
D.J. Reed◄
0.5 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
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0.14 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Caleb Banks◄
no 2025 data
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
D.J. Reed◄
0.5 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
MarShawn Lloyd◄
no 2025 data
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Average
5.6% sack rate
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Bobby Okereke◄
0.7 impact/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Keisean Nixon
0.7 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Chris Olave
0.19 EPA/tgt
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Poona Ford◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Kobie Turner◄
0.6 press/gm
Kaden Elliss
1.0 impact/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Michael Penix Jr.
0.01 EPA/att
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
Drake London
0.18 EPA/tgt
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.
0.18 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Average
8.7% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Christian Barmore◄
no 2025 data
Divine Deablo◄
0.7 impact/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.◄
0.5 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Justin Herbert◄
0.02 EPA/att
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Carnell Tate◄
no 2025 data
Charlie Kolar◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
9.5% sack rate
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Dalvin Tomlinson
no 2025 data
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Teair Tart◄
no 2025 data
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Daiyan Henley◄
0.8 impact/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Alontae Taylor◄
0.6 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Jaylen Warren
0.03 EPA/tch
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
DK Metcalf
0.26 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Good
5.3% sack rate
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Payton Wilson◄
0.7 impact/gm
Sauce Gardner◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Caleb Williams
0.06 EPA/att
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
Ja'Marr Chase◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Good
5.3% sack rate
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Dexter Lawrence II◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.
0.8 impact/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Dax Hill◄
0.5 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love◄
no 2025 data
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Budda Baker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane
0.01 EPA/tch
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Good
7.4% sack rate
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Chop Robinson◄
no 2025 data
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Malaki Starks◄
0.5 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
C.J. Stroud
0.08 EPA/att
J.K. Dobbins
-0.00 EPA/tch
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Nico Collins
0.26 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Average
5.1% sack rate
D.J. Jones
0.4 disrupt/gm
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Zach Allen
1.1 press/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Henry To'oTo'o
0.8 impact/gm
Riley Moss
0.8 cover/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Trevor Lawrence◄
0.05 EPA/att
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Tre Tucker◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers
0.22 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
6.8% sack rate
Bad
11.1% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Adam Butler◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Quay Walker
0.9 impact/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Patrick Mahomes
0.10 EPA/att
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Rashee Rice◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce
0.32 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Average
7.4% sack rate
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Drue Tranquill◄
0.7 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Brady Russell◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
-0.02 EPA/tch
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Terry McLaurin
0.36 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Average
5.3% sack rate
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Daron Payne
0.6 disrupt/gm
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Josh Jobe
0.6 cover/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Mike Evans◄
0.06 EPA/tgt
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Average◄
4.5% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Shelby Harris◄
0.2 press/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
$9.99/mo
Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
$29.99/mo
All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.
