We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 2-1 · full slate 9-4 straight up
Our 3 highest-conviction calls out of 13 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
TEN
IND
16
31
Offense
IND
Defense
IND
Called it ✓
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
IND
Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Daniel Jones
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Cody Barton◄
0.7 impact/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Alontae Taylor◄
0.6 cover/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
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0.11 EPA/att
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Cody Barton◄
0.7 impact/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Alontae Taylor◄
0.6 cover/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Michael Penix Jr.
0.01 EPA/att
De'Von Achane
0.01 EPA/tch
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Drake London◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.
0.18 EPA/tgt
Good
7.4% sack rate
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Chop Robinson◄
no 2025 data
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.◄
0.5 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Average
7.4% sack rate
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Drue Tranquill◄
0.7 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Deshaun Watson
no 2025 data
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Average◄
8.7% sack rate
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Grant Delpit◄
0.4 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts◄
0.05 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo◄
-0.05 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Average◄
6.6% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Average◄
no data
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Jalen Carter◄
no 2025 data
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Zack Baun
1.0 impact/gm
Dru Phillips
0.6 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Bo Nix
0.08 EPA/att
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson◄
0.16 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Elite
4.7% sack rate
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Dee Winters
0.8 impact/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
C.J. Stroud
0.08 EPA/att
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
David Montgomery
0.02 EPA/tch
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz
0.29 EPA/tgt
Average
4.5% sack rate
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Tommy Togiai
0.4 disrupt/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Justin Herbert◄
0.02 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Ladd McConkey◄
0.05 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Bad◄
9.5% sack rate
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Dalvin Tomlinson
no 2025 data
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Cam Hart◄
0.5 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus
0.6 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Caleb Williams◄
0.06 EPA/att
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Derrick Henry
0.02 EPA/tch
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Good
9.6% sack rate
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Malaki Starks◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Chase Brown◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Ja'Marr Chase◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Dexter Lawrence II◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.
0.8 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Tyler Shough◄
0.00 EPA/att
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Travis Etienne Jr.◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Calijah Kancey◄
no 2025 data
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Yaya Diaby
0.9 impact/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Tetairoa McMillan◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Average
6.4% sack rate
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Bobby Okereke◄
0.7 impact/gm
Dee Alford
0.8 cover/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
MarShawn Lloyd
no 2025 data
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
DK Metcalf
0.26 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington
0.24 EPA/tgt
Average
5.6% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Javon Hargrave
0.4 disrupt/gm
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Karl Brooks◄
no 2025 data
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Payton Wilson◄
0.7 impact/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
$9.99/mo
Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
$29.99/mo
All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.
