We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 2-0 · full slate 13-2 straight up
Our 2 highest-conviction calls out of 15 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
NYG
DEN
15
26
Offense
DEN
Defense
DEN
Called it ✓
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
DEN
Pass-heavy · mixed sets
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Bo Nix
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely◄
0.10 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Nik Bonitto
1.2 impact/gm
Dru Phillips
0.6 cover/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
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0.08 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely◄
0.10 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Nik Bonitto
1.2 impact/gm
Dru Phillips
0.6 cover/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Kenneth Walker III◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Tre Tucker◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers
0.22 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Average◄
7.4% sack rate
Adam Butler◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Eric Stokes◄
0.2 cover/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Caleb Williams◄
0.06 EPA/att
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson
0.29 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Grady Jarrett◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Devin Bush
0.9 impact/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Justin Reid◄
0.5 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
D.J. Reed◄
0.5 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Ja'Marr Chase
0.19 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Good
5.3% sack rate
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Cameron Heyward◄
0.4 press/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Dax Hill◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker
0.6 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Rhamondre Stevenson◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Average◄
8.7% sack rate
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Christian Barmore◄
no 2025 data
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Cody Barton◄
0.7 impact/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Alontae Taylor◄
0.6 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Amani Hooker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jalen Hurts◄
0.05 EPA/att
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Aaron Jones Sr.◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.6% sack rate
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Average
no data
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Zack Baun
1.0 impact/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Deshaun Watson
no 2025 data
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Malik Washington◄
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Carson Schwesinger
0.9 impact/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grant Delpit◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Omarion Hampton
-0.01 EPA/tch
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Dalvin Tomlinson◄
no 2025 data
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley◄
0.8 impact/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Cam Hart◄
0.5 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson◄
0.16 EPA/tgt
Good
7.3% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Michael Penix Jr.
0.01 EPA/att
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson
0.03 EPA/tch
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Drake London◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.
0.18 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Average
4.5% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.
0.7 disrupt/gm
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Brandon Dorlus◄
0.8 press/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Divine Deablo◄
0.7 impact/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.◄
0.5 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Poona Ford◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun
0.9 impact/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens
0.6 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
C.J. Stroud
0.08 EPA/att
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Brady Russell
-0.01 EPA/tch
Nico Collins
0.26 EPA/tgt
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz
0.29 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Average
5.1% sack rate
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Tommy Togiai
0.4 disrupt/gm
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Henry To'oTo'o
0.8 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Josh Jobe
0.6 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Ty Okada◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
MarShawn Lloyd
no 2025 data
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Marvin Harrison Jr.
0.31 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride
0.39 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.6% sack rate
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Roy Lopez
0.4 disrupt/gm
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Jack Gibbens◄
0.7 impact/gm
Keisean Nixon
0.7 cover/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Bryce Young◄
-0.03 EPA/att
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Breece Hall◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Tetairoa McMillan◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Lee Hunter◄
no 2025 data
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Nahshon Wright
0.8 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Dane Belton◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
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All 5 sports
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