We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 2-1 · full slate 6-8 straight up
Our 3 highest-conviction calls out of 14 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
TEN
ARI
14
26
Offense
ARI
Defense
ARI
Missed the winner
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
ARI
Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Jacoby Brissett
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Jacoby Brissett◄
-0.00 EPA/att
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Jeremiyah Love◄
no 2025 data
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Bad◄
8.3% sack rate
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Roy Lopez
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Josh Sweat◄
no 2025 data
Cody Barton◄
0.7 impact/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Amani Hooker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
$9.99/mo
Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
$29.99/mo
All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.
-0.00 EPA/att
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Jeremiyah Love◄
no 2025 data
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Bad◄
8.3% sack rate
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Roy Lopez
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Josh Sweat◄
no 2025 data
Cody Barton◄
0.7 impact/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Amani Hooker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Tre Tucker
0.18 EPA/tgt
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers◄
0.22 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
Grover Stewart◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Sauce Gardner◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Joe Burrow
0.08 EPA/att
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Ja'Marr Chase
0.19 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Good
5.3% sack rate
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Dexter Lawrence II◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
D.J. Reed◄
0.5 cover/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Josh Allen
0.11 EPA/att
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry
0.36 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Average
8.7% sack rate
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau◄
0.7 impact/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Tetairoa McMillan◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Average
6.4% sack rate
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Lee Hunter◄
no 2025 data
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Nick Scott◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Justin Herbert◄
0.02 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
-0.02 EPA/tch
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Dalvin Tomlinson
no 2025 data
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley◄
0.8 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Nick Cross
0.5 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Aaron Jones Sr.◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Justin Jefferson◄
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
11.0% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Carson Schwesinger
0.9 impact/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Brock Purdy
0.13 EPA/att
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Christian McCaffrey
0.04 EPA/tch
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Average
4.5% sack rate
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Kobie Turner◄
0.6 press/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson◄
0.4 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown
0.5 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jaxson Dart◄
0.01 EPA/att
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Travis Etienne Jr.◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
8.4% sack rate
Bad
7.7% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Davon Godchaux◄
0.1 disrupt/gm
Shelby Harris◄
0.2 press/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Kaden Elliss
1.0 impact/gm
Dru Phillips
0.6 cover/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Justin Reid◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Javonte Williams◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
CeeDee Lamb◄
0.20 EPA/tgt
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson◄
0.16 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Otito Ogbonnia◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Dee Winters
0.8 impact/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Dane Belton◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Brady Russell◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Vita Vea
0.8 disrupt/gm
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence
0.8 impact/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
Kenneth Walker III◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Rashee Rice◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce
0.32 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Average◄
7.4% sack rate
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
DaVon Hamilton◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts
0.05 EPA/att
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Jaylen Waddle
0.27 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Average
6.6% sack rate
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Average
no data
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Zack Baun
1.0 impact/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell
0.7 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
David Montgomery
0.02 EPA/tch
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Nico Collins
0.26 EPA/tgt
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Average
5.1% sack rate
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Tommy Togiai
0.4 disrupt/gm
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Nate Wiggins
0.7 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Malaki Starks◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
$9.99/mo
Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
$29.99/mo
All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.
