We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 4-0 · full slate 7-8 straight up
Our 4 highest-conviction calls out of 16 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
CLE
DET
19
30
Offense
DET
Defense
CLE
Called it ✓
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
DET
Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Deshaun Watson
no 2025 data
Jared Goff
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Deshaun Watson
no 2025 data
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jared Verse
0.9 press/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Grant Delpit◄
0.4 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
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0.14 EPA/att
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jared Verse
0.9 press/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Grant Delpit◄
0.4 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson
0.29 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
T.J. Sanders◄
no 2025 data
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Dee Alford
0.8 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Bo Nix
0.08 EPA/att
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Ja'Marr Chase
0.19 EPA/tgt
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki◄
0.07 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Good
5.3% sack rate
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.
0.8 impact/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Tommy Togiai
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Amani Hooker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Justin Herbert◄
0.02 EPA/att
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Ladd McConkey◄
0.05 EPA/tgt
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Bad◄
8.4% sack rate
Dalvin Tomlinson◄
no 2025 data
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Teair Tart◄
no 2025 data
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Dak Prescott
0.15 EPA/att
MarShawn Lloyd◄
no 2025 data
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Average
5.6% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jalen Hurts◄
0.05 EPA/att
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Saquon Barkley◄
-0.08 EPA/tch
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Average
6.6% sack rate
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Average
no data
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Yaya Diaby
0.9 impact/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Average
7.4% sack rate
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
George Karlaftis◄
0.8 press/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Drue Tranquill◄
0.7 impact/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Brady Russell◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Marvin Harrison Jr.
0.31 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner
0.32 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Roy Lopez
0.4 disrupt/gm
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Josh Jobe
0.6 cover/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Ty Okada◄
0.5 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Average
8.7% sack rate
Lee Hunter◄
no 2025 data
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Bobby Okereke◄
0.7 impact/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Nick Scott◄
0.4 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Aaron Rodgers◄
0.04 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez◄
no 2025 data
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.◄
0.4 cover/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Caleb Williams◄
0.06 EPA/att
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
Tre Tucker◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers
0.22 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Grady Jarrett◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
Devin Bush
0.9 impact/gm
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Eric Stokes◄
0.2 cover/gm
Xavier Woods◄
0.4 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Daniel Jones
0.11 EPA/att
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Kyren Williams
0.04 EPA/tch
Alec Pierce
0.49 EPA/tgt
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Good
5.0% sack rate
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Grover Stewart◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Sauce Gardner◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Brian Thomas Jr.◄
0.14 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange
0.40 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Average◄
4.5% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Michael Penix Jr.◄
0.01 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
-0.02 EPA/tch
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Drake London
0.18 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Good
7.3% sack rate
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Daron Payne
0.6 disrupt/gm
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Tim Settle◄
no 2025 data
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Divine Deablo◄
0.7 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Nick Cross
0.5 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson◄
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Harrison Phillips◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Jamien Sherwood
1.0 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Dane Belton◄
0.5 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
$9.99/mo
Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
$29.99/mo
All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.
