We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 2-0 · full slate 11-5 straight up
Our 2 highest-conviction calls out of 16 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
LV
WAS
19
29
Offense
WAS
Defense
LV
Called it ✓
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Kirk Cousins◄
-0.00 EPA/att
Jayden Daniels
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
Kirk Cousins◄
-0.00 EPA/att
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Tre Tucker
0.18 EPA/tgt
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers◄
0.22 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
$9.99/mo
Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
$29.99/mo
All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.
-0.01 EPA/att
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Tre Tucker
0.18 EPA/tgt
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers◄
0.22 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts
0.05 EPA/att
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith
0.38 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Average
6.6% sack rate
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Average◄
no data
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Jalen Carter◄
no 2025 data
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Zack Baun
1.0 impact/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Josh Allen
0.11 EPA/att
De'Von Achane
0.01 EPA/tch
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
DJ Moore◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich
0.34 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Good
7.4% sack rate
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Baker Mayfield◄
0.00 EPA/att
Breece Hall◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Emeka Egbuka◄
0.05 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Yaya Diaby
0.9 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Deshaun Watson
no 2025 data
MarShawn Lloyd◄
no 2025 data
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.6% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Mason Graham
0.4 disrupt/gm
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Keisean Nixon
0.7 cover/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
Brady Russell◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Chris Olave
0.19 EPA/tgt
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson
0.29 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Leonard Williams◄
0.8 press/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence
0.8 impact/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Josh Jobe
0.6 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Ty Okada◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Caleb Williams
0.06 EPA/att
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
CeeDee Lamb◄
0.20 EPA/tgt
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Elite
4.7% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Grady Jarrett◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Dee Winters
0.8 impact/gm
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Cobie Durant◄
0.5 cover/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Xavier Woods◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Derrick Henry
0.02 EPA/tch
Amon-Ra St. Brown
0.28 EPA/tgt
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Good
6.3% sack rate
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Roquan Smith◄
0.7 impact/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Malaki Starks◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Chase Brown◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Ja'Marr Chase◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Caleb Banks◄
no 2025 data
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez◄
no 2025 data
Demetrius Knight Jr.
0.8 impact/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Dax Hill◄
0.5 cover/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride
0.39 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Average◄
4.5% sack rate
Roy Lopez
0.4 disrupt/gm
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Josh Sweat◄
no 2025 data
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Jack Gibbens◄
0.7 impact/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Kenneth Walker III◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Rashee Rice◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Average◄
7.4% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Khyiris Tonga◄
0.1 disrupt/gm
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
George Karlaftis◄
0.8 press/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman◄
0.5 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Omarion Hampton
-0.01 EPA/tch
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Bad
9.5% sack rate
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Dalvin Tomlinson
no 2025 data
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga
0.7 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Michael Penix Jr.◄
0.01 EPA/att
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Drake London◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Average
6.4% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Derrick Brown◄
no 2025 data
Divine Deablo◄
0.7 impact/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Tyler Warren◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Cody Barton◄
0.7 impact/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Alontae Taylor◄
0.6 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz
0.29 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Josh Hines-Allen
1.0 press/gm
Henry To'oTo'o
0.8 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Montaric Brown
0.7 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
DK Metcalf
0.26 EPA/tgt
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington
0.24 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Average
8.7% sack rate
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Christian Barmore◄
no 2025 data
Payton Wilson◄
0.7 impact/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
$9.99/mo
Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
$29.99/mo
All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.
