We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 3-0 · full slate 9-7 straight up
Our 3 highest-conviction calls out of 16 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
CLE
BAL
16
30
Offense
BAL
Defense
BAL
Called it ✓
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
BAL
Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews◄
0.02 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Mason Graham
0.4 disrupt/gm
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Tyson Campbell
0.7 cover/gm
Nate Wiggins
0.7 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Malaki Starks◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
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Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews◄
0.02 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Mason Graham
0.4 disrupt/gm
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Tyson Campbell
0.7 cover/gm
Nate Wiggins
0.7 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Malaki Starks◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Caleb Williams
0.06 EPA/att
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jahmyr Gibbs
0.04 EPA/tch
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland
0.47 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Good
6.3% sack rate
Grady Jarrett◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Montez Sweat
0.9 press/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
D.J. Reed◄
0.5 cover/gm
Xavier Woods◄
0.4 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Jacoby Brissett◄
-0.00 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Jeremiyah Love◄
no 2025 data
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Bobby Okereke◄
0.7 impact/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Denzel Burke
0.7 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Budda Baker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Ja'Marr Chase◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Dexter Lawrence II◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.
0.8 impact/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Jordan Battle
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Malik Willis
0.13 EPA/att
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich
0.34 EPA/tgt
Average
8.7% sack rate
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Cory Durden◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Carlton Davis III◄
0.4 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Craig Woodson◄
0.3 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Michael Penix Jr.
0.01 EPA/att
Kyler Murray◄
0.02 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Drake London◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez◄
no 2025 data
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.◄
0.5 cover/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Justin Herbert◄
0.02 EPA/att
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Tre Tucker◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers◄
0.22 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
9.5% sack rate
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Dalvin Tomlinson◄
no 2025 data
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
Cam Hart◄
0.5 cover/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb◄
0.20 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson◄
0.16 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Otito Ogbonnia◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Quinnen Williams◄
no 2025 data
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Dee Winters
0.8 impact/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin◄
0.3 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
MarShawn Lloyd
no 2025 data
Terry McLaurin
0.36 EPA/tgt
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Average
5.6% sack rate
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Javon Hargrave
0.4 disrupt/gm
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Odafe Oweh◄
0.7 impact/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Keisean Nixon
0.7 cover/gm
Nick Cross
0.5 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Brady Russell
-0.01 EPA/tch
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
DK Metcalf
0.26 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington
0.24 EPA/tgt
Average
5.3% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Keeanu Benton
0.6 disrupt/gm
Leonard Williams◄
0.8 press/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
DJ Moore◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Dee Alford
0.8 cover/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Bo Nix
0.08 EPA/att
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
J.K. Dobbins
-0.00 EPA/tch
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Jaylen Waddle
0.27 EPA/tgt
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Good
5.0% sack rate
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Laiatu Latu
0.9 press/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga
0.7 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Tommy Togiai
0.4 disrupt/gm
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Henry To'oTo'o
0.8 impact/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jalen Hurts
0.05 EPA/att
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Kenneth Walker III◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce
0.32 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.6% sack rate
Average
7.4% sack rate
Average◄
no data
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Colby Parkinson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Kobie Turner◄
0.6 press/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Alontae Taylor◄
0.6 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson
0.29 EPA/tgt
Average◄
4.5% sack rate
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Keion White◄
0.2 press/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
$9.99/mo
Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
$29.99/mo
All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.
