We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 4-1 · full slate 10-6 straight up
Our 5 highest-conviction calls out of 16 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
NYJ
BUF
19
30
Offense
BUF
Defense
BUF
Called it ✓
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
BUF
Run-heavy · under-center
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Josh Allen◄
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
DJ Moore◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Kenyon Sadiq
no 2025 data
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.57 EPA/tgt
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Christian Benford
0.3 cover/gm
Minkah Fitzpatrick
0.6 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
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0.11 EPA/att
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
DJ Moore◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Kenyon Sadiq
no 2025 data
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.57 EPA/tgt
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Christian Benford
0.3 cover/gm
Minkah Fitzpatrick
0.6 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Trevor Lawrence◄
0.05 EPA/att
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Bhayshul Tuten◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Carnell Tate◄
no 2025 data
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Bad◄
6.8% sack rate
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Jayden Daniels
-0.02 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts◄
0.05 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Terry McLaurin
0.35 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.35 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Average
6.6% sack rate
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Average
no data
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell
0.7 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.
0.30 EPA/tgt
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Josh Sweat◄
no 2025 data
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Zaven Collins
0.4 impact/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Malik Willis
0.13 EPA/att
Drake Maye◄
0.24 EPA/att
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
A.J. Brown◄
0.22 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich
0.33 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.35 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Average
8.7% sack rate
Kenneth Grant◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Christian Elliss
0.3 impact/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III◄
0.4 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Craig Woodson◄
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Baker Mayfield◄
0.00 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard◄
-0.05 EPA/tch
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Tetairoa McMillan◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble◄
0.14 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Average
6.4% sack rate
Bobby Brown III
0.2 disrupt/gm
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Tershawn Wharton
0.2 press/gm
Elijah Roberts◄
0.2 press/gm
Jaelan Phillips
0.7 impact/gm
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Omarion Hampton
-0.01 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Courtland Sutton◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Oronde Gadsden◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Dalvin Tomlinson
no 2025 data
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Jonathon Cooper◄
0.8 impact/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Kenneth Walker III◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Tre Tucker◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers
0.22 EPA/tgt
Average◄
7.4% sack rate
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Adam Butler◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Thomas Booker IV
no 2025 data
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
L'Jarius Sneed◄
no 2025 data
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman◄
0.5 cover/gm
Isaiah Pola-Mao
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
C.J. Stroud
0.08 EPA/att
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
David Montgomery
0.01 EPA/tch
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Nico Collins
0.26 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Average
5.1% sack rate
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Laiatu Latu
0.9 press/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Tua Tagovailoa◄
0.03 EPA/att
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Drake London
0.17 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.
0.18 EPA/tgt
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Da'Shawn Hand◄
no 2025 data
Cameron Jordan◄
no 2025 data
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Caleb Williams
0.06 EPA/att
Jahmyr Gibbs
0.04 EPA/tch
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Rome Odunze
0.17 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland
0.47 EPA/tgt
Good
6.3% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Alim McNeill
0.3 disrupt/gm
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Montez Sweat
0.9 press/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Tyrique Stevenson◄
0.5 cover/gm
Kerby Joseph◄
0.6 cover/gm
Dillon Thieneman
no 2025 data
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Aaron Rodgers◄
0.04 EPA/att
Derrick Henry
0.02 EPA/tch
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Zay Flowers◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
DK Metcalf
0.26 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Pat Freiermuth◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Good
5.3% sack rate
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Yahya Black
no 2025 data
Calais Campbell◄
0.7 press/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Payton Wilson◄
0.7 impact/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Dak Prescott◄
0.14 EPA/att
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Javonte Williams◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
CeeDee Lamb◄
0.20 EPA/tgt
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson◄
0.16 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Otito Ogbonnia◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Quinnen Williams◄
no 2025 data
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Dee Winters
0.8 impact/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin◄
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Deshaun Watson
no 2025 data
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Chase Brown◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Ja'Marr Chase◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki◄
0.07 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.
0.8 impact/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Sam Darnold
0.11 EPA/att
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Zach Charbonnet
-0.00 EPA/tch
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner
0.32 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.52 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Average
4.5% sack rate
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Alfred Collins
0.2 disrupt/gm
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
C.J. West
no 2025 data
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
Dre Greenlaw
0.4 impact/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Josh Jacobs◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.61 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.6% sack rate
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Isaiah Rodgers
0.2 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
$9.99/mo
Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
$29.99/mo
All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.
